I did an initial article after Saturdays GW1 games to see how the Barclays fantasy premier league bonus points were allocated. That came to a simple conclusion and I’ve put the link at the bottom of the page. However it only took in to account 7 out of the 11 GW1 games so I’ve looked at the rest and updated the article. The results are very interesting and have implications for our fantasy premier league team selection
First I should again say to the to the mathematicians reading this that I apologise for the data size. However even the most ardent pure mathematicians will find the arguments compelling. I do realise that 11 games is not a robust data set but I was extremely curious and the results were interesting anyway
Ok just to remind you that the basis of the exercise is to see how they are allocated. I decided for simplicity that a bonus was a bonus irrespective of 3 point or 1 point as I was trying to decide who got the bonuses rather than who got which bonus.
The very simple maths
There were 39 bonus points given out in GW1. Here’s where they were allocated:
1. Goal scorer – 18 times
2. Assister – 7 times
3. Clean sheet defender – 15 times
4. Penalty saved – 2 times
5. Other – 1 time (to Clark of Villa against Arsenal)
If you’re wondering why that doesn’t add up to 39 its because Mignolet, Coleman, Shaw and Aguero all did 1 of the categories twice. Not surprisingly they got the 3 point bonuses.
To say I was surprised that out of 39 bonus points 38 fitted in to these easy 4 categories was an understatement.
Now lets look at it in reverse
If you scored or assisted or were a defender that got a clean sheet or saved a penalty what were the chances of you then getting a bonus point of some sort:
1. 19/24 (79%) of goal scorers got some sort of bonus.
2. However only 6/13 (41%) of assisters got some sort of bonus.
3. There were 7 clean sheets in GW1, in all 7 cases (100% obviously) at least 2 defenders or GKs got a bonus point. There was also a pretty good mixture between CBs and FBs. Interestingly they were all winning clean sheets not 0-0’s which hasn’t happened yet. I had a look at the defensive stats quickly but couldn’t see any discernible pattern as to why those players got the bonus and not the others.
4. In both cases of penalty saves the GKs got bonus points.
So what does this all mean
Goal scorers will continue to be rewarded. Assisters are far less likely to get the bonus points. Goal scoring midfielders such as Walcott Michu and Lampard will continue to be rewarded. Assist based midfielders like Jarvis Downing and Lennon will be disadvantaged
Clean sheets are good for defenders making them worth investing in. Bargains in teams like City Chelsea Arsenal and Liverpool who all got 14 clean sheets plus will be rewarded well.
That’s it hope you found it helpful for future selection
Here’s the link to the first article although this reiterates the findings
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