There’s been a definite movement in our squads based on 2 game weeks of data on the bonus system. Fantasy premier league managers are purchasing defenders (CBs especially) selling midfielders and buying forwards all on the basis of 2 gameweeks of data. While that data was pretty compelling, as its affecting our decisions so significantly I thought I should check out the results from gameweek 3. This is especially the case as so many people will be using their WCs this gameweek. The analysis is in the same form as GW1 and GW2. If you can’t be bothered with the maths and the analysis just go to the conclusion at the end. I’m hoping this is the last time i need to do this.
GW3 was interesting as it had 1 0-0 draws and with another 7 clean sheets in the other games making a total of 9 clean sheets out of 18 opportunities.
Ok just to remind you that the basis of the exercise is to see how they are allocated. I decided for simplicity that a bonus was a bonus irrespective of 3 point or 1 point as I was trying to decide who got the bonuses rather than who got which bonus.
The very simple maths
There were 34 bonus points given out in GW1. Here’s where they were allocated:
1. Goal scorer – 12 times
2. Assister – 4 times
3. Clean sheet defender – 20 times
4. Penalty saved – 0 times
5. Other – 1 time (to Nzonzi)
If you’re wondering why that doesn’t add up to 34 its because Zabaleta, Agger and Ben Davies got into more than 1 of the categories twice. Not surprisingly they all got the 3 point bonuses.
The 3 categories covered all the bonus points apart from NZonzi making it very easy in terms of implications for our teams
Now lets look at it in reverse
If you scored or assisted or were a defender that got a clean sheet, what were the chances of you then getting a bonus point of some sort:
1. 12/13 (92%) of goal scorers got some sort of bonus. This compares to 79% in GW1 and 93% in GW2
2. However only 4/8 (50%) of assisters got some sort of bonus. This compares to 41% in GW1 and 27% in GW2
3. There were 9 clean sheets in GW3, in 7/9 cases at least 2 defenders or GKs got a bonus point. In the other 2 cases 1 defender got a bonus point. However on average over 2 defenders got a bonus point. GW3 was like GW2 where the allocation of bonus points was weighted 2 to 1 CBs to FBs . Out of the 17 clean sheet only related bonus point awards 9 went to CBs, 5 to FBs and 2 to GKs. 1 went to Wilson a CDM but classified as a defender.
So what does this all mean
So the conclusions are the same as GW1 and GW2. Goal scorers will continue to be rewarded. If you score you’re virtually guaranteed a bonus point. Assisters are far less likely to get the bonus points. Goal scoring midfielders such as Walcott Michu and Lampard will continue to be rewarded. Assist based midfielders like Jarvis Downing and Lennon will be disadvantaged
Clean sheets are good for defenders making them worth investing in. Bargains in teams like City, Chelsea, Arsenal, and Liverpool who all got 14 clean sheets plus will be rewarded well.
The pattern above seems set and I feel confident to use this in making my decisions. This will see a continued movement to the restructuring of our teams to 4-3-3. Fantasy premier league teams with 3 front line defenders from the top 4 challengers of Man U, Man City, Chelsea, Arsenal Spurs and Liverpool plus 2 rotating defenders. 3 front line mids with 2 rotating and 3 front line strikers.
That’s it hope you found it helpful for future selection
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