Barclays fantasy premier league – “ones to watch” forwards – GW4 Buy Hold Sell

Fantasy Premier League, Player Rankings

Here’s the “ones to watch” for forwards on the Barclays fantasy premier league  in a buy hold sell format for GW4.  This will give the best forward players at a variety of price ranges

There is no rule for forwards just pick the best ones especially now with goals virtually guaranteeing bonus points:

I’ve provided the following stats to support the player choices and to guide you in your decisions.  I’ve now moved this to this year’s stats:

1.  Goals and assists this year.   I’ve now started using this years stats although its very early to draw a picture

2.  Time per point scored this year.  This is how many minutes it takes for a Barclays fantasy premier league point to be scored over the course of last season.  The lower the better obviously.   I’ve now moved to this years stats

3.  Rotation risk.  High, medium or low.  High is the greatest risk of rotation.

4.  Fixture ease ranking:  The link is at the bottom of the article but essentially I’ve ranked all the teams by the ease of the first 6 fixtures.  The team with the best ranking ie 1 will have the easiest next fixtures of any of the fantasy premier league teams over the next 6 games.

5.  Consistency:  The % of times that the player got a goal or assist or 2 point minimum bonus when starting   as a % of games started

6.  I’ve also ranked them in their categories as who i think is currently the best choice

Elite forwards

1. RVP (£14.0m) BUY

  • Goals and assists:  2 goals 0 assists.  Time per point scored:  17.7 mins .  Rotation risk: low.   fixture ease ranking: 5th.  Consistency 1/3   33%

2 games with no returns but there were 2 games against 2 of the better defences in the league in Liverpool and Chelsea.  I’m comforted by the fact that only Giroud has had more shots in the box than RVP and with home games against Palace and WBA coming up either side of palace he’s a definite buy for me.  Only negatives are 1.  That Rooney isn’t back until GW5 which is a bit of a creative loss but RVP should still be in the goals against Palace, Rooney or not and 2 that he hasn’t been creating chances like he did last year

2. Giroud (£8.8m) BUY

  • Goals and assists least year:  3 goals 0 assists.  Time per point scored last year:  10 mins .  Rotation risk: low.   fixture ease ranking: 3rd.  Consistency 3/3   100%

Great start backed up by great underlying stats in shooting and creating chances.  Has even more potential as chance creator world class Ozil has now joined.  And to make it even better there is no rotation option for him.

3.  Sturridge (£9.2m)  BUY (injury doubt)

  • Goals and assists:  3 goals 0 assists.  Time per point scored:  12.3 mins .  Rotation risk: low.   fixture ease ranking: 1st.  Consistency 3/3   100%

Underlying stats don’t support 3 goals in 3 games and at the moment he’s not creating chances for team mates.  however you cant argue with the returns.  Also has great fixtures.  it’s just a case of whether he will be fit for the Swansea game but a buy for me.

4.  Soldado (£9.7m) BUY

  • Goals and assists:  2 goals 0 assists.  Time per point scored:  14.1 .  Rotation risk: low.   fixture ease ranking: 2nd .  Consistency 2/3  66%

2 goals from pens but over the 3 games the underlying stats have been solid in creating chances and shooting.  has pens which is a big advantage and Eriksen will give that creativity and support in 4-2-3-1 hopefully that Soldado needs.  If you’re ever going to buy him though now’s the time with a home game against Norwich next.

5.  Benteke (£9.1m) BUY

  • Goals and assists:  2 goals 0 assists.  Time per point scored:  13.5 mins .  Rotation risk: low.   fixture ease ranking: 17th.  Consistency 2/3  66%

3 fantastic performances against 3 of the better defences in the league. I doubted that he was worth the price not being in one of the top 4 challenging teams but has showed that this could be totally irrelevant.  Has penalties in his locker and players like Weiman and Agbonlahor with the pace to be regularly fouled.   With Newcastle at home next he’s a very tempting purchase. Fixtures are generally quite tricky but this hasn’t been a factor so far.  Fantastic underlying shooting and creating chances stats,  probably underlying stats overall are rivaled by Giroud

6.  Negredo (£9.3m) BUY

  • Goals and assists:  2 goals 0 assists.  Time per point scored: 5.5  mins .  Rotation risk: high.   fixture ease ranking: 18th.  Consistency 0/0    0%  (only starts count)

As said in the Aguero description Negredo is now the leading striker to buy for Man City in fantasy premier league.  He leads the line so is the most advanced player who should get the most chances to score in the best positions.  He’s also cheaper

7.  Aguero (£11.1m)HOLD

  • Goals and assists:  1 goals 2 assists.  Time per point scored: 11.9  mins .  Rotation risk: medium.   fixture ease ranking: 18th.  Consistency 2/3    66%

In my mind Negredo is now the leading striker to buy for Man City in fantasy premier league.  He leads the line so is the most advanced player who should get the most chances to score in the best positions.  He’s also cheaper

8.  Lukaku (£7.4m) HOLD (ineligible for GW4

Goals and assists:  0 goals 0 assists.  Time per point scored:  20 mins .  Rotation risk: medium.   fixture ease ranking: 11th.  Consistency 0/0   0%

This I didn’t expect!  Great loan for Everton and remember this is a guy who’s stats per minute were pretty much only rivalled by RVP last year.  Fixtures aren’t that spectacular and he’s ineligible for the first game but expect him to make an impression

Mid price forwards

1.  Lambert (£7.6m)HOLD

  • Goals and assists:  1 goals 0 assists.  Time per point scored:  24.5  mins .  Rotation risk: low.   fixture ease ranking: 10th.  Consistency 1/3   33%

Just the 1 goal from the spot so far and the last game against Norwich when Osvaldo started was very quiet.  Still a home game to West Ham is not the time to sell so I would hold at least until GW5 away to Liverpool

2.  Bony (£7.8m) HOLD 

  • Goals and assists:  1 goals o assists.  Time per point scored:  16.5 .  Rotation risk: medium.   fixture ease ranking: 7th.  Consistency 0/1  0%

Mixed start and was quiet against WBA.  However has a fantastic goal record in Eredivsie last year and although its Man Utd at home this week you should hold him until after the Crystal Palace away game in GW5

3.  Bent (£6.5m) HOLD

  • Goals and assists: 1 goals and 0 assists:     Time per point scored last year:  14  mins .  Rotation risk: low.   fixture ease ranking: 8th.  Consistency 0/1    0%

Very quiet start away to Newcastle even though he lead the line.  However, 4 seasons ago he scored 24 goals in a season and 3 seasons ago he scored 17.  This is a guy with a great track record.  However Fulham looked shambolic against the shambles that is Newcastle which is quite disturbing.  However a home game against WBA is not the time to be selling

Dzeko (£7.8m) SELL

  • Goals and assists:  1 goals 1 assists.  Time per point scored:  18.5 mins .  Rotation risk: high.   fixture ease ranking: 18th.  Consistency 2/3   66%

Seems no question in my mind he will lose his place and be behind Negredo.  You may want to get confirmation by waiting until the Stoke game is over  but even with the so far unpredictability of  Pellegrini I just cant see him starting after the Hull game

Budget forwards

With the bonus awards focused on goals then I really cant see the sense in a budget filler for a striker.  I’ll give the information but I’m not going to BUY HOLD OR SELL THEM

Cornelius (£5.4m) (injury doubt)

  • Goals and assists least year:  18 goals 5 assists (Danish league).  Time per point scored last year:  NA .  Rotation risk: low.   fixture ease ranking: 9th.  Consistency N/A

I’ve just put last years stats up as he’s only played 1 minute so far this year.  Does have a good record and is a good prospect in that price range.  Big question is over gametime with Campbells success means he may not start.  Don’t buy him until he starts.  I haven’t categorised Campbell as he also has some positional risk if Cornelius starts centrally.  I would hold him especially as the next game is away to Hull.

Chamakh (£5.0m)

  • Goals and assists: 1 goals and 0 assists:     Time per point scored last year:  14.2  mins .  Rotation risk: medium.   fixture ease ranking: 19th.  Consistency 1/2   50%

A good goal against Stoke but didn’t return against Sunderland and was a bit quiet.  Personally I’m sceptical given the fixtures coming and wouldn’t own him.

 

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