Fantasy premier league – analysing 10 top FPL managers teams – GW30

fantasy premier league – analysing 10 top fantasy premier league managers teams – GW30

Key Points of the gameweek

• average score 53 vs average of 45
• average position 11,200
•  Hazard majority captain choice
•  Many purchased Aguero early and then sold him
• Mass sales of Adebayor and purchases of Lukaku
•  5/10 took his
• 1 manager used his wildcard.  See team below.

Background

Just in case it’s your first time reading this article.  In any part of life, sport or business it’s natural to look at the best and see what you can learn.  It also helps challenge your thinking and make you question what you’re doing.  If the best are doing it and so are you it may also give some comfort.   I also know that going on to fantasy premier league sites if you get a bad tip then you can kind of ditch the site.   So if you can see that other tried and tested fantasy premier league managers  also believe in that player then it can provide some justification for the sites pick

The reason I haven’t just picked the current top 10 leaders is that these top 10 leaders will change over the season so the top 10 now will be totally different at the end of the year.   In my mind it means nothing.  Its more important to pick people in my mind who’ve consistently finished high in the overall league over the last 3 years.

Here’s some stats on the 10.  First remember that there 10 fantasy premier league managers and I’ve looked at the last 3 years overall finish rank.  Meaning there are 30 times they have played in the last 3 years.  Sorry if you found that insulting, just for clarity.

1. The average overall position improved after a very good round for the 10 currently and the average at the moment  is 11,200 steady from  the last gameweek of 11,000.    11,200 is top 0.3% of 3,192,000 fantasy premier league managers.  No one is currently lower than 40,000

2.  The average position over the last 3 years is around 3,500 (this is the top 0.1 % of fantasy premier league teams)

3.  10/10 have finished in the top 1000 in the last 3 years

4  6/10 have finished in the top 100 in the last 3 years

The above is pretty impressive consistency in fantasy premier league.  What these teams look like is certainly something to take note of.  My average over the last 3 years is 7,900 by the way.

There are 2 issues with doing this though.  Firstly just because a player is owned by a fantasy premier league manager doesn’t mean he wants to own him.  He could  be wanting to transfer him out but can’t due to other priorities, injuries etc.  That’s probably more for cheapies though as expensive players are probably ditched earlier.  Secondly it obviously s a look back and not forward to the next gameweek

Ok so here’s the break down of their teams (obviously I don’t mention every player just the ones that appear frequently).

What was the average round score?

The average GW30 score of the 10 fantasy premier league managers was 53 points compared to the average of 45.  8 points and 18% above the average

What is the average team value?

The average value of the 10 fantasy premier league managers was £111.2m slightly down from £111.5m last week.

Interestingly I noted the time when the transfers were done for this week.   The average day of transfers was Wednesday 12 March.  This was later than ususal due to the European games increasing injury risk.  However there was also a big variation in times though.

GK/DEFs by player

Coleman is owned by 6 of the 10 fantasy premier league managers

Baines and Mannone are owned by 5 of the 10 fantasy premier league managers

Boruc Ward and Ivanovic  are owned by 4 of the 10 fantasy premier league managers

Azpilicueta KDavis Adrian Chester Terry and Evra are   owned by 3 of the 10 fantasy premier league managers

GKs/DEFs by team

Chelsea  GKs/DEFs  appear 14 times as a GK/DEF in the 10 teams

Everton GKs/DEFs  appear 12 times as a GK/DEF in the 10 teams

Southampton  GKs/DEFs  appear 10 times as a GK/DEF in the 10 teams

C Palace GKs/DEFs  appear 9 times as a GK/DEF in the 10 teams 

Cardiff GKs/DEFs  appear 6 times as a GK/DEF in the 10 teams

Sunderland GKs/DEFs  appear 5 times as a GK/DEF in the 10 teams

Man Utd GKs/DEFs  appear 4 times as a GK/DEF in the 10 teams 

Norwich Arsenal West Ham and Hull  GKs/DEFs  appear 3 times as a GK/DEF in the 10 teams

Midfielders

Hazard  is owned by 10 of the 10 fantasy premier league managers

Lallana  is owned by 9 of the 10 fantasy premier league managers

Mata  is owned by 8 of the 10 fantasy premier league managers

YYT Noone and Snodgrass are  owned by 3 of the 10 fantasy premier league managers

Forwards

Suarez is owned by 10 of the 10 fantasy premier league managers

Lukaku  is  owned by 7 of the 10 fantasy premier league managers

Sturridge   is  owned by 6 of the 10 fantasy premier league managers

GW30 Transfers

The most transferred in players were in fantasy premier league GW30:

Lukaku x 7

Aguero x 5 (A load of people went early and then had to transfer him out when injured)

YYT x 2

No one else was transferred in more than once.

The most transferred out were:

Adebayor x 8

Aguero x 3

Snodgrass x 2

Oscar x 2

No one else was transferred out more than once

The most popular transfers were:

Adebayor to Aguero x 5

Aguero to Lukaku x 3

No other transfer was undertaken more than once

The average day of transfers was Wednesday 12 March.  This was later than ususal due to the European games increasing injury risk but didn’t show the massive variation. A load of people transferred Aguero in early and then had to transfer him out

GW30 Captain Choices

Hazard was captained 5 times.

Lukaku 3 times

Suarez once

Sturridge once

How many took hits?

5 of the 10 fantasy premier league managers took point hits.

What was the most popular formation

3-4-3 was used 7 times

4-3-3 and 4-3-3 were used once

How many have used their Wildcard?

9 out of 10 have used their regular season wildcard.  1 person used it this week

Here’s their team

Mannone, Gazzaniga

Dann Chester Distin Baines Kolarov

Silva YYT Gerrard Hazard Ki

Suarez Sturridge Lukaku

So what does this mean?

Here’s a few things which jump out:

• For the gameweek

The season average of 11,200 compared to their last 3 year average of 3,000 shows what a hard year its been for even the best fantasy premier league managers.  However the 10 managers are continuing to perform with an average of 53 this gameweek compared to the league average of 45

The surprising majority choice of Hazard as captain

The early disastrous purchase of Aguero and the resultant sale

The complete abandonment of Adebayor

The purchase of Lukaku

Mata ownership holds reasonably firm

Alot of hits were taken

• For the season

 Chelsea  Southampton Everton and Palace  look like where the defensive emphasis should be.  Hazard  Lallana and Suarez look the must haves elsewhere with  Mata and Lukaku just behind .
These managers take hits

Transfers appear to be done early in the week except for European weeks

3-4-3 is still the most popular formation.

All have created valuable teams.

The concentration is on teams inside the top 4 challenging teams.  Lallana (9)  Nolan (1) Bony (1)  Lambert (1)  and Rodriguez (1)  are the only players over £6m outside the top 4 challenging  teams owned by the 10 fantasy premier league managers

Here’s a team to represent the top 10 fantasy premier league managers.  Value was around £113m. This is £2m above their average.      Below the picture I’ll tell you how it would have scored

The team would have scored as follows:

Boruc  2 points

Coleman 11 points

Ivanovic 2 points

Baines 2 points

Hazard 4 points (Captain)

Mata 2 points

YYT 6 points

Lallana 1 point

Lukaku 2 points

Sturridge 4 points

Suarez 11 points

Reserves:  Mannone  Ward Noone Chester

Total 47 points

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