fantasy premier league – “ones to watch” GKs/Defs GW17

Fantasy Premier League, Player Rankings

Here’s the new format GK/Defs fantasy premier league “ones to watch”.  I’m going to do it by teams and outline the options rather than do it by individuals

It’s a tricky time for defence in fantasy premier league.  Chelsea have been disastrous and Spurs recently haven’t performed out of the the top 4 challenging teams.   City haven’t been able to keep clean sheets away.  Liverpool have been fairly hopeless all round up to last week.

Cheap defences such as Hull Southampton and Stoke have done well at home but now face some tricky fixtures.

Anyone who can get attacking returns may offer some hedge against clean sheets not happening.

I’ve divided this article into the 2 groups I’ve described above to give you some help

 Here’s the link to my latest rating the defences article.  http://www.fantasyfootballgeek.co.uk/fantasy-premier-league-rating-defs-gw17/

Best fantasy premier league defences

1.  Everton

Overall defensive rankings:  Home defence 13/40   Away defence 10/40   Clean sheets:  8

The 2nd best away defence but only the 11th best home defence.  Still the number 1 defence overall though in my view.  Disappointing to have no clean sheet at home to Fulham which should be a banker.  Underlying defensive stats could have been better as well.  A good chance for 4 clean sheets in the next 6.

Last week it all went wrong with Coleman scoring and no clean sheet so apologies there.  Jagielka was my top choice  at £6.0m.  No real attacking potential but an incredible 18 bonus points.  I think there’s a justification for both cases but if I were to pick now I would probably go for Coleman at £6.1m.      He’s the attacking option who plays as a winger virtually.  3 goals and an assist plus 11 bonus points.   Distin is the budget option at £5.m.There’s still some residual gametime risk with Alcaraz fit but I think he’s proven enough to hold. GK Howard is too expensive at £5.9m for me given the alternatives

Next 6 fantasy premier league fixtures:

Swansea (A)
Sunderland (H)
Southampton (H)
Stoke City (A)
Norwich (H)
West Brom (A)

2.  Arsenal

Overall defensive rankings:  home defence  5/40   Away defence 16/40    Clean sheets:  6

The 5th best home defence and the 4th best away defence.  Took an absolute pounding at Man City but still have a good record with 5 clean sheets in the last 8.  Remains to be seen if the defence is the same with Koscielny injured.  Alot of clean sheet potential after the next game home to Chelsea

Mertesacker is definitely the top option for attacking and bonus points at the moment but far more expensive at £6.0m.  Showed his attacking value with his 2nd goals of the season to add to his clean sheet.  Koscielny is now injured with no return date.  His replacement Vermaelen is £5.4m.  Gibbs is £5.4m .  Sagna at £5.4m is now back and offers a good attacking option and would be my 2nd choice behind Mertesacker.   The GK Szczesny offers no price advantage at £5.7m

Next 6 fantasy premier league fixtures:

Chelsea (H)
West Ham (A)
Newcastle (A)
Cardiff City (H)
Aston Villa (A)
Fulham (H)

3.  Man City

Overall defensive rankings:  Home defence 1/40   Away defence 25/40  Clean sheets:  6

I would ignore the 6-3 shootout with Arsenal. City I rate as the best home defence and the 8th best away defence.  They have some underlying stats which suggest they can improve on the 1 away clean sheet.

Kompany  is a at a bargain price of £6.2m.  He should get plenty of bonus points and has good attacking potential.  Zabaleta is now injured although there is yet to be a return date.  He has good assist potential and is slightly cheaper at £6.1m .  Kolarov is my punt at £5.3m.  He has no gametme security but should play against easier teams when attacking potential is required or as a wing back. GK Pantmilion is a great punt at £5.0m if you think he will continue starting.  Difficult to say at the moment with rumours before GW16 that he Hart would start and Pantmilion not having the best of games.  Who will take Zabaleta’s place if he is injured for some period.  Richards is injured with an unknown return date. Could be Clichy playing the wrong way round which would secure gametime for Kolarov.  Lescott I cant see doing it. The ideal position would be £4.2m right footed CB Boyata who subbed for Zabaleta last night. That really would be a huge leap of faith.  However the January wildcard will soon be with us so now is the time to do the odd punt. Fulham at home is a great chance for a clean sheet or attacking returns as well.

Clean sheet potential everywhere in the next 6 games.

Next 6 fantasy premier league fixtures:

Fulham (A)
Liverpool (H)
Crystal Palace (H)
Swansea (A)
Newcastle (A)
Cardiff City (H)

4.  Chelsea

Overall defensive rankings:  Home defence 8/40   Away defence 15/40  Clean sheets:  4

It takes a big leap of faith to stay with the Chelsea defence.  Like Liverpool they concede goals in games they control and where the opposition has few good chances. palace will be the last straw for many. Fixtures aren’t helpful either.  Underlying stats  wise it looks like they could turn it around.  However 1 clean sheet in the last 11 and only 4 overall is not good to say the least and I understand people selling or having sold.

I rate them the 3rd best away defence and 7th best home defence.  However the results just don’t bear it out at the moment.  1 clean sheet in the last 11 is no return for £6m defenders.  Another terrible defensive performance in the Capital One cup despite having the edge on possession.  It wasn’t a full strength defence but it wasn’t far off. It seems hard to recommend a side that’s only had 4 clean sheets.  The ranking is based on good underlying stats.  They concede very few really good chances and shots inside the box in comparison to other teams.  Its just that when they do they concede goals.  Interestingly in my article “fantasy premier league – analysing 10 top fantasy premier league managers teams”  (link at bottom of article)  5/10 managers have John Terry so other people who know what they are doing are keeping the faith.  It will be interesting to see how many sell offs there are this gameweek after these 2 results and Arsenal away next.

Terry is my top choice at £6.6m.  He’s 24 points better off than any other option.  He’s the best attacking prospect and a bonus magnet with 13 points already.  Ivanovic is the cheaper option at £6.2m but without the bonus points or attacking prospects.  If you want to take a punt that he can keep the L:B spot ahead of Cole then Azpilicuetais good value at £5.3m. GK Cech at £6.2m is reasonable value in comparison and secure gametime wise although if he keeps playing like he did last week.

The next 6 fixtures look difficult for clean sheets.  Only really Swansea at home and Hull away could be clean sheet potential.

Next 6 fantasy premier league fixtures:

Arsenal (A)
Swansea (H)
Liverpool (H)
Southampton (A)
Hull City (A)
Man Utd (H)

Fantasy premier league home rotation defences only

1.  Crystal Palace

I’m not going  to give the historical stats as this is all about the Pulis effect.  2 clean sheets in consecutive games and a good set of home games coming.  Pulis will make Selhurst park a fortress.

Gabbidon seems the best bonus choice at £4.2m.  Ward is the secure RB at £4.0m but without the bonus potential and is yet to get an attacking return.

Excellent home fixtures apart from the last one.

Next 6 fantasy premier league HOME  fixtures:

Newcastle (H)
Norwich (H)
Stoke City (H)
Hull City (H)
West Brom (H)
Man Utd (H)

2.  Hull

Overall defensive rankings:  Home defence 2/40

2nd best home defence behind Manchester city.  5 clean sheets and only 3 goals conceded.  Steve Bruce is an excellent defensive coach and  did wonders at Wigan.

Next 6 home fixtures could be better with Man Utd and Chelsea in the next 3.  Looking like a solid January wildcard pick though is you dont have anyone at the moment.

 Chester at £3.8m is my top choice.   He started  the 3 since coming back and is great value.  Davies is the bonus magnet more expensive version at £4.6m .  GK MacGregor is reasonable value at £4.4m for home and away rotation.

Next 6 fantasy premier league HOME  fixtures:

Man Utd (H)
Fulham (H)
Chelsea (H)
Tottenham (H)
Southampton (H)
Newcastle (H)

3.  Southampton

Overall defensive rankings:  Home defence 3/40

4 clean sheets and only 6 goals conceded in 8 games.  3 in the Villa game which was a bit of a wobble.  Produced an excellent defensive performance against City with injuries to Schneiderlin and Wanyama

Clyne (injured but expected to return this week) is my top choice here at £4.6m.  good assist potential as well.  Lovren and Fonte have more attacking and bonus potential at £5.7m and £5.3m but dont warrant the expenditure in my view.  Fonte was dropped/rested for Hooiveld.  I would ignore this if you are holding him as Hooiveld didn’t have the best of games.

Difficult home games though with only 1 maybe 2 clean sheets in the next 5 home games.  Gazzaniga at £3.9m is good short term value with Boruc out until 11 January.  Davis is expected back this week though which may cause problems

Some tricky home fixtures coming though which means it maybe a January wildcard pick up rather than anything immediate

Next 6 fantasy premier league HOME  fixtures:

Tottenham (H)
Chelsea (H)
West Brom (H)
Arsenal (H)
Stoke City (H)
Liverpool (H)

4.  Stoke

Overall defensive rankings:  Home defence 4/40

Showed some away mettle at Hull in GW16.  For me though still a home rotation team only.  4 clean sheets and only 5 goals conceded at home. In contrast to their  away form prior to Hull.  Home games aren’t easy though with 4/6 being difficult to see clean sheets.

Cameron at £5.om is my top choice.  Shawcross at £5.4m is the better bonus and attacking option but for me too expensive for home rotation.  Wilson is the cheap gamble at £4.3m while Huth is injured.  Its just short term is now what you need with those fixtures

Next 6 fantasy premier league HOME  fixtures:

Aston Villa (H)
Everton (H)
Liverpool (H)
Man Utd (H)
Swansea (H)
Arsenal (H)

Here’s my article analysing 10 top fantasy premier league managers:  Youll find it very interesting

http://www.fantasyfootballgeek.co.uk/fantasy-premier-league-analysing-10-top-fpl-teams/

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