With the international break underway I thought it would be useful to make a few notes on the fantasy premier league season so far. 8 game weeks in and it’s taken until the last 2 gameweeks to show the first signs of how we would expect the season to progress based on past experience.
Fantasy Premier League – a few thoughts on the season so far
Here’s a few random thoughts on the season so far.
By the last 2 gameweeks I mean in the main the the long awaited emergence of Sanchez and Aguero. They both had the class, the chances and the shooting stats to suggest it was going to come at some stage but only when they both got into most peoples last chance saloon (although Aguero may have still had GW9 home to Bournemouth in the most forgivings locker) that they came out fighting with a hat trick for Sanchez and 5 incredible goals for Aguero. It’s fair to say that that has seen a massive improvement in rank of those managers who’ve played the game for a few seasons and based their strategy starting with big name proven FPL players. To me it also showed the power of underlying stats. While certain players can buck them and for that reason they are not the be all and end all, when things aren’t happening for a player knowing they are still getting the shots in the box at a good rate certainly helps you keep the faith and hold on. Aguero and Sanchez both had among the best underlying shooting stats of forwards and mids respectively and that provided the ability to hold on to them knowing that the tide had to tuen at some stage . Interestingly this was the big difference between Hazard and Aguero/Sanchez. Hazards shooting stats were way off an acceptable level and it meant you had nothing to help you keep the faith.
From my own point of view I’ve seen an improvement of rank over the last week from 1 million to 460k. Thats good but should have been a lot better as I’ve made some bad choices so far this season. FPL is often about 50/50 decisions and unfortunately it seems all of the 50.50 decsions where I’ve debated long and hard, have been the wrong ones. Pedro or KDB/Silva? Gone for Pedro. Shaqiri or Payet? Gone for Shaqiri. Take a 4 point hit to get Payet in? Decide not to and he gets 10 points. These are the things that ultimately define your rank. It’s fair to say the 50/50’s haven’t been all bad, Vardy last week came good for example. Dont get me wrong I’m not trying to make excuses, some 50/50/s go for you some dont. It’s not an exact science. I wasn’t complaining at the last quarter of last season where every 50/50 seem to go for me and my ranked ended up at 2,700 so I cant moan here. Just hope it changes.
Another interesting fact this season has been injuries. Every week I seem to be changing a player due to injuries. Add to it this week with Aguero. At the moment this has had a two fold effect. Firstly it’s meant that most weeks have ended up with the need to change players for injuries rather than to improve your team. That has made it difficult to bring in players you want without a hit. For me it’s also affected the ability to get out players which you bought knowing they did or potentially only have a temporary shelf life. Two examples of this are Targett of Southampton and Gomez of Liverpool. 2 players who are very cheap compared to their defensive compatriots. Targett was always out when Bertrand came back and Gomez who was left out when Rodgers changed his mind and reverted to his former LB pick Moreno. Getting your defensive picks right is a very under the radar way to improve your rank and not being able to tweak them due to injuries is a frustrating issue. Another effect of injuries is the consideration to improving the 5th midfielder. My philosophy, to use that rather over used word, is to not over spend on players who will sit on the bench but the injuries this season have made me question that. There are a couple of players around the £5.0m mark that could make a better contributio potentially than Westwood or Surman. Hoolahan and Sinclair come to mind. However they do come with some gametime risk.
Another interesting aspect has been the form of Chelsea and Man Utd. Chelsea have been just plain woeful and Man Utd haven’t really clicked in attack in any consistent manner. Thats left us needing to cast the net wide of the top 4 teams of Chelsea, Man Utd, Man City and Arsenal. It’s hard to back anyone at Chelsea at the moment and with United consistent production in attack hasn’t been there. Man City still have assets to buy but Arsenal looks like a Sanchez or nothing option. So we’ve seen the likes of Payet, Vardy, Mahrez and before an injury Wilson. Will this make the season harder with a wider choice of players and a lack of template? It will certainly make it more interesting if it continues.
It’s finally looking like business as usual for the top 10 FPL managers I follow. This article really does give you a useful reference point to what consistently successful managers are doing. It also was another layer of comfort as none of them ditched Aguero even as captain and very few ditched Sanchez either.
Another interesting point of this season has been the ability of players new to the premier league to hit the ground running and make an immediate impact. Payet, Wilson, De Bruyne, Martial, Ayew, Ighalo as examples. Longevity for all of them is obviouly too early to predict but the old thought that players take time to adjust isn’t necessarily the case.
So what next. An Aguero replacement looks the most likely issue needing resolving. However there are also so many other problems in my team that it’s going to be a slow repair job each week. Targett, Gomez are definite gones having lost their place. Shaqiri and Pedro have form and selection issues respectively. Even Darmian with a couple of early substitutions looks to have gametime issues. Richards may as well not even be in my team. Myhill will eventually be exited when Foster comes back although hopefully not to December and GK McCarthy hs lost his place as a back up. At the moment I’m not using the free transfer I have and are just going to suck up any price drops until the Friday before the next game week just to see how things pan out. The last thing I need is an Aguero replacement also getting injured on international duty or in training.
Hope that provided some food for thought
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