Fantasy premier league is a game of few events. Primarily goals, assists and clean sheets. This article looks at the chances of you getting some some of fantasy premier league bonus points (on average) if a player of yours gets a goal, assist or clean sheet. It’s a relatively short post and the analysis isn’t perfect by any stretch as obviously different players accrue bonus points for other things during the game affecting the overall allocation. However it did provide some interesting results and is something else to think about in your selections.
FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE BONUS POINTS – RELATING BONUS POINTS TO EVENTS
Alot is made of in the FPL community of baseline BPS ie the ability of player gets to accrue bonus points ignoring these events. However history shows that if you don’t trigger ones of these events you’re not likely to get a bonus. Baseline BPS is useful and it will determine to some extent the amount of bonus you get but so will the other events in that game. So a player scoring the only goal in a 1-0 win rather than a goal in a 3-3 draw is more likely to get a 3 point bonus than the player who scores in the 3-3 draw irrespective of his baseline BPS.
So I looked at the opening 7 rounds and then looked at the bonus points and allocated them in 5 categories as listed below. I then worked out in how many cases that event triggered a bonus point. There are a couple of sub analysis points. By the way I haven’t distinguished between 1 point and 3 points just the % of times that event triggered a bonus point of any value. Obviously there will be times when a player gets 2 events eg a goal and assist, goal and a clean sheet etc and that is an additional category. So here are the events and the analysis below. It is important to note that this is a watchout and differs for different players.
A SINGLE GOAL – 56%
Interesting scoring a single goal in a game only triggered some sort of bonus in 56% of cases in the first 7 rounds of the 16/17 season. Thats quite low compared to some previous years when a single goal virtually guaranteed a bonus unless you were in a goal fest when there weren’t enough bonus points to match the goal scorers. It’s slightly up on the analysis I did last season at 52%
A SINGLE ASSIST – 22%
This has always been quite low and invariably a single assist in a game doesn’t see much reward. This is down on last seasons 27%
A CLEAN SHEET WITH NO ATTACKING EVENT – THE CHANCES ARE 1.5 DEFS/GKS FROM THE TEAM WILL GET A BONUS
Obviously 1.5 men can’t get a bonus but thats maths for you. Excuse the long heading btw but I think this is the best way of analysing it. What it means is what it says. The chances are if a team gets a clean sheet then without a def/gk having an attacking event as well, 1.5 of the teams Defs/GK will get some sort of bonus. Last season my analysis said 2 players would get it.
It is worth noting that when a clean sheet arrives someone in defence or GK will get an assist in 93% of the time.
2 EVENTS IN 1 GAME – 95%
No surprise here and so it should be the case. Invariably 2 or 3 bonus points. This means a goal and an assist, a goal and a clean sheet, 2 goals or 2 clean sheets, an assist and a clean sheet. Even the 2 assist event was guaranteed. In fact I think the only things stopping them were a penalty miss or some other unrelated disaster. Last season my analysis said 90%
SO WHO GOT BONUS POINTS WITHOUT ANY OF THE ABOVE EVENTS?
This was definitely up on last year but still around 8% of the bonus points ie 1 in 12 were awarded to players who didn’t trigger one of those events. Nearly half of that 8% were defenders (47%). 30% of the 8% were CDMs. 24% of the 8%were GKs.
SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?
The purpose of the article is just to make you think about their bonus point potential before you transfer them in as 1 factor. So it may make you think if your choosing a predominantly assist based player vs a goal scoring based player.
Assist based players won’t get you much in the way of bonus points. However this is a general rule and should just be a watchout while you look at players individually
Single goals are no longer the route to a guaranteed bonus
Attacking defenders in strong defensive sides are a good bet for double events and bonus points Bellerin and Koscielny are good examples at a price.
Attacking players who can get goals and assists are good bets for double events and bonus points eg Sanchez and Coutinho
Clean sheets give you a good chance of a bonus these days
Hope this gives you an added strand to your transfer choices.
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