Background 

Just as a general point for those coming to the site for the first time.   I did alot of research on where the 10 point plus fantasy premier league attacking scores came from and the vast majority came from the top 4 challenging teams playing the potentially relegation threatened teams.  Now that may sound like common sense and it is how I look at where the captain choices should come from.   The theory is simple, you get more shots against the poorer teams.  What was interesting is that there wasn’t much variance between the home fixture and the away fixture.  The opposition was key.  However at the moment Suarez is breaking all the rules and is a form option irrespective of the opposition.

Here’s the best fixtures:

1.  WBA v Chelsea

2.   Man City v Sunderland

3.  Fulham v Liverpool

The picks for me from this are:  Hazard, Dzeko and Suarez

Hazard (away to WBA)

• Will he start?

Not guaranteed.  Chelsea have City on Sunday in the FA Cup and Galatasary next Wednesday.  The good news is you’ll see the team sheet before the gameweek deadline closes.

• How consistent is he generally and away?

Overall not great:    12 goals and  8 assists.   Consistency 12/25   48%  Last 5 return consistency in all games:  2/5.   Similar returns away 5 out of 12

• How has he performed against poor opposition so far away from home

Excellent.  Seems to like the counter attacking approach away from home.  Returned in 3 of Sunderland, West Ham and Norwich with double digit fantasy premier league point returns in all 3 games

• Whats his recent form like

Fresh off a hat trick and looking dangerous in every game.  Only 2 returns in his last 5 but that’s misleading

• Whats his underlying stats like

Very good.  One of the best midfielders for underlying stats

• Whats the opposition defence like

I rated them in my GW23 article as the 8th best home defence although the new coach is more attack minded.  Did do a reasonable defensive job on Liverpool though. and stats are ok

Here’s WBA’s last 5 fantasy premier league home games:

NOR(H) 0-2
HUL(H) 1-1
NEW(H) 1-0
EVE(H) 1-1
LIV(H) 1-1

• Is he an option?

Depends on how much risk you want to take.  Has the potential for big scores but inconsistent overall.  Last 3 games away to easier opposition have all been double digit hauls

Dzeko (Sunderland home)

• Will he start?

Difficult to say with Chelsea coming up in the FA Cup and Barca in the Champions league.  As they’re playing Barca in the champions league rotation will be on the cards.  As they’re playing on Wednesday there’s no team sheet to check either. Didn’t start against Norwich though which gives more hope

• How consistent is he generally  and at home?

Good:  Overall 7 goals 4 assists.    Consistency  8/19  42%  but if you only include games he started then its 7/11 or 64% which is good.  Returned in 4/5 games at home when started

• How has he performed against poor opposition so far at home

When started he’s returned in all 4 home games against Cardiff, Palace, Norwich and Newcastle

• Whats his recent form like

Good:  Returned in 3 out of 5 games.

• Whats his underlying stats like

Fantastic shooting stats but doesn’t create chances

• Whats the opposition defence like

Sunderland have been excellent away from home defensively recently with 3 clean sheets in the last 5.  However with Wes Brown suspended were likely to see Roberge in at CB who’s no where near as defensively strong (although less likely to get sent off!).  Add that to a City side that will be desperate to get things back on track after 2 consecutive blanks and you’ve got a recipe for strong returns.

• Is he an option? 

If he starts yes.  I think he will but its a risky call

Suarez (away to Fulham)

• Will he start?

Definitely

• How consistent is he generally and  away?

Unreal.   A machine.  Overall  22 goals and 16 assists in 20 games:     Consistency 17/20 returns    85% .   Returned in 9 out of 12 away

• How has he performed against easier opposition so far away

Excellent.  The only times he hasn’t returned is away to Hull City and Arsenal all of which have excellent home records

• Whats his recent form like

Unreal.  returned in his last 5.

• Whats his underlying stats like

Excellent.  The best of any striker.  Great shooting and creating chances stats.  Only Aguero is even close.  Interestingly has dropped off a little in the last 4 gameweeks.

• Whats the opposition defence like

Fulham are the worst defensive side in the league bar none. Here’s there last 4 home results with 12 goals conceded

MCI(H) 2-4
WHU(H) 2-1
SUN(H) 1-4
SOU(H) 0-3

• Is he an option?

He’s always an option irrespective of the defence

Summary:

Here are my captain options in order

1.  Suarez

2.  Dzeko

3.  Hazard

William Hill check

Here’s how William Hill see the anytime goal scorer odds market with all players at under £2.00

1.  £1.50 – Negredo

2.  £1.57 – Suarez and Dzeko

3.  £1.91 – Sturridge Eto’o Giroud Jovetic

Hazard is £2.75

Some interesting differences here.   Negredo started at Norwich so I’ve discounted him due to starting risk with Jovetic now fit.  Sturridge I’ve assumed if you have him you’ve got Suarez and for me Suarez is the better option.  Eto’o is yet to score away from Stamford Bridge and will probably be subbed with Torres fit.  Jovetic is too early in fantasy premier league for me to be given the armband

I hope that gives you some food for thought for your fantasy premier league captain choice.

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