Here’s my fantasy premier league captain choice for gameweek 11. We’ll give you the important stats on the leading options as well as the bookies view as a back up
fantasy premier league captain choice – gameweek 12
This week it’s a straight shoot out for the captain choice for me between Aguero and Costa so I’ll be concentrating on these two.
Aguero (Swansea H)
Will he start?
He should do. Hasn’t had to do the usual travelling over the International break. He has got Bayern at home in the Champions League midweek but given the questionable form Man City are in and the reliance on Aguero it’s very difficult to see him not playing.
Whats his consistency like overall and at home?
Very Good. He’s scored in 8 of the 11 games he’s played in overall. At home he’s scored in 3 from 5
Hows he performed against lower place opposition?
Questionable whether Swansea are in that category. No game really qualifies in that category. Only Stoke at home where they famously parked the bus and he blanked.
Whats his recent home form like?
Here’s his last 4 home games:
STK(H) 0-1 90 minutes Blank 2 points
CHE(H) 1-1 90 minutes Blank 2 points
TOT(H) 4-1 90 minutes 4 goals 19 points
MUN(H) 1-0 83 minutes 1 goal 8 points
So a little mixed but last 2 couldn’t be better
Whats his underlying shooting and creating chances stats like?
His shooting stats are the best of any striker whether judged over the whole season or the last 4. Hasn’t really been crerating chances though.
Whats the opposition defence like?
Here’s their last 4 away games
CHE(A) 2-4
SUN(A) 0-0
STK(A) 1-2
EVE(A) 0-0
So 2 clean sheets in the last 4 isn’t too bad thats for sure.
Away from home they got 2 clean sheets from games. Bizzarely only Villa and WBA have 3 away clean sheets. They’ve conceded 7 goals in those 5 games (4 against Chelsea) which is mid table for goals conceded.
In terms of underlying defensive stats they are lower mid table for shots conceded and big chances. They have good error stats
So overall a defence thats probably over performed in terms of clean sheets for their fairly average away defence
Overall thoughts?
Personally I think he can score against anyone anytime any where and what’s more he also has penalties up his sleeve. If you’re being picky you would say his record at home when teams will pack defences could be better but thats only really focused on the Stoke game.
Diego Costa (WBA H)
Will he start?
Is away to Schalke in the Champions League but given that he’s been rested for 2 weeks you would think he will start
What’s his consistecy like at home and overall?
Overall he’s returned in 7/9 games. At home, he’s scored in 4 of the 5 home games. Blanking strangely against QPR.
How’s he performed against lower placed opposition at home?
Leicester, Swansea and Aston Villa he’s scored. Hat trick against Swansea. Blanked against QPR.
Whats his recent home form like?
SWA(H) 4-2 71 minutes 3 goals 17 points
AVL(H) 3-0 80 minutes 1 goal 6 points
ARS(H) 2-0 90 minutes 1 goal 6 points
QPR(H) 2-1 77 minutes Blank 2 points
So pretty impressive
Whats his underlying shooting and creating chances stats like?
Very good all round stats. He creates chances and he has good shooting stats. His shooting stats are some way off Aguero’s.
What about all the fuss about his lack of bonus points?
9 of Costa’s 63 points are from bonus points ie 14%. Aguero has got 14 out of a total points of 79 ie 18% of his total points and 5 more. If you read my early season article on bonus points there is a good correlation between goals and bonus points. However Chelsea are far less reliant on goals than Aguero. They’ve scored 6 more and Aguero’s percentage of the total is 55% while Costas is 32%. Obviously if Chelsea are scoring more goals then the bonus points will be shared around. There’s also no doubt that Aguero has more of an all round game dropping back and being involved in play more. However to me it’s not the material factor in a decision as if Chelsea are more likely to score more goals and therefore the bonus points diluted then surely Costa has more chance of scoring.
What about the opposition defence?
Here’s their last 4 away games.
SWA(A) 0-3
TOT(A) 1-0
LIV(A) 1-2
LEI(A) 1-0
So apart from the Swansea game pretty impressive.
Away from home they have 3 clean sheets in 5 games. No team has more. They’ve only conceded 5 goals in those games. Only Southampton have conceded less.
They look like they have overperformed the underlying stats but not too excessively. They are top 3rd in shots conceded and have a good big chance conceded record.
Overall thoughts?
Chelsea are an attacking machine and Costa the attacking focal point. He doesn’t ahve pens but you can’t deny his goal scoring record at home. WBA are no mugs away but Chelsea are a strong attacking team
Bookmker odds
Here’s the anytime goal scoring odds for anyone at £2.00 or under as of today
£1.66 – Costa
£1.70 – Aguero
£2.00 – Remy, Drogba. Lukaku, Eto’o, Crouch, Diouf,
So pretty close. Remy and Drogba and Eto’o I’ve ignored for gametime reasons. Lukaku is too inconsistent for me. It would be a big step for me to give the captains armband to someone from Stoke, home to Burnley or not.
I’m personally sticking with Aguero
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fantasy premier league captain choice
fantasy premier league captain choice
