fantasy premier league captain choice GW1

Fantasy Premier League

Here’s our first fantasy premier league captain choice article for 2015/16.  It’s the full version to start the season.  We’ll look at the crucial stats for the leading options, see what the bookies think and we’ll also see what some of the other FPL advice sites are looking at.  We’ll also tell you the FFGeek pick.   This week were looking in depth at Hazard v Rooney

fantasy premier league captain choice GW1

So if you haven’t got either Hazard oir Rooney in your team then maybe you should be looking at it again.  The chances are that you probably have.

Lets start with Hazard

Hazard (Swansea H)

Will he start?

Seems he will definitely start in his normal position advanced on the left

What was his consistency like last season home and overall

Overall:  Last season Hazard returned a goal or assist in 22/38 games.  Thats a 56% return rate. Higher than any other midfielder

At Home:  Hazard returned a goal or assist in 13/19 games.  This is a very impressive 68% of games

What about double hauls at home

These are where 2 returns occur.  eg either a goal or assist or 2 goals or 2 assists

This happened on 2 occasions both goal and assists doubles.  This happened twice at home against Hull and Stoke.

Hows he performed against similar teams at home

Swansea are a mid table team so difficult to get a similar set of stats.

Whats the opposition defence like away from home?

Swansea were no mugs away from home. They were 9th equal in goals conceded and had 7 clean sheets.  They do have the potential to concede though conceding 3 goals or more 4 times during the season.  Only 5 teams had worse stats in those regards.  Interestingly they showed a vulnerability to the bigger sides with the following results away

2-4 away to Chelsea

1-3 away to West Ham

1-4 away to Liverpool

2-3 away to Spurs

Having made no real defensive improvements to the side  then these stats still have some relevance.

Summary

Here we have a guy who has the highest ownership in FPL.  He also was the most consistent midfielder as well as one of the biggest dangers for double figure hauls.  The Swansea defence is no mugs but they have shown a vulnerability to the bigger sides away from home.  Remember Hazard will also have pens.

Rooney (Tottenham H)

Rooney is a bit different in that his stats aren’t that helpful as he played midfield alot last season.  Any stats we refer to him will only be where he played as a centre forward last season in the premier league.  That surprisingly was on 14 occaisons

Will he start?

He will definitely start and it would be a big shock for it to be anything other than as centre forward

Whats his consistency like overall and at home

Overall as CF he only returned a goal or assist in 6/14 games.  Thats only a 43% consistency rate.  However there were only 5 home games in those 14.

At home as CF:  Incredibly he scored or assisted in every of the 5 home games he played in the premier league as a CF

Whats his double hauls like at home?

There was only 1 in the 5 home games and that was home to QPR.

How has he performed against similar opposition at home?

Spurs are a strange one as ostensibly they are a top 4 challenging team yet last year their defence was utterly hopeless.  I think the home stats as a CF speak for themselves

Whats the opposition defence like away from home?

Before I proceed to tell you how hopeless they were it’s worth mentioning that Spurs have bought Alderweireld from Southampton to strengthen the defence although that maybe countered if Lloris misses out.  No strengthening in the CDM department either.  Trippier wasa bought as was Kevin Wimmer but they seem unlikely to start.

Last season only 5 teams conceded more goals away than Spurs.  To give you an idea of how bad that is those teams were Villa, Burnley, Leicester, Newcastle and QPR.  Only 3 teams conceded 3 goals or more on occasions more frequently away than Spurs.  Those teams were Villa, Liverpool (strangely) and QPR.

Summary

A riskier option in some ways as you’re working with less data and Rooney hasn’t played CF consistently last season.  However you’re looking at a proven PL goal scorer as a striker over the seasons.  The pens question is a big one.  Mata in theory has it but maybe LVG will reset his you miss and you go to the back of the queue rule for the new season.  The Spurs defence has been hopeless and the reinforcements apart from Alderweireld either in defence or CDM have been underwhelming.

The Bookie stats 

Here’s the bookie stats for anytime goal scorer under £2.00 or under with some comments next to some of them.  Obviously the odds  don’t count assist possibilities.

£1.67 – Giroud (I haven’t covered him due to the possibility he will be beneched for Walcott)

£1.75 – Costa (the hamstring obviously!)

£1.80 – Walcott

£1.85 – Falcao (the reverse of Costa)  Aguero  (probably wont start)

£1.91 – Rooney  Remy (as for Falcao)

£2.00 – Bony (questions over match fitness) Sterling (could play striker but a little inconsistent against a strong defence)

Hazard is £2.05 but as I said this doesn’t include assist possibilities

Other FPL sites

4 other FPL advice sites have polls up.  The main site has Rooney and Hazard neck and neck at 25%.   3 other sites have Hazard leading in the polls by mid to late 30% compared to Rooney in the mid 20%

The FFGeek pick

I haven’t wavered from the beginning and I will be going for Hazard.  He seems the safer bet given his ownership.  Pens are also a bonus.  He also looks consistent and the Swansea defence has shown vulnerability (Arsenal away apart) against the top sides.  I still don’t have anything against Rooney though.

Good luck to everyone in whoever you choose

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