fantasy premier league captain choice GW12

Here’s our fantasy premier league captain choice GW12 article.  We look at the fixtures, the anytime goal scorer bookies odds, other FPL advice sites polls, the FFGeek choice, 2 of the top 10 FPL managers I follow and some basic stats of the players and the defences they face

fantasy premier league captain choice GW12

Here’s the fixtures for a bit of context:

Fixtures are tricky.  Man City is probably the best 1.

 Bookies odds

Here’s the anytime goalscoring odds for those at £2.20 or below for £1 invested.

£1.80 – Rooney

£1.85 – Vardy, Bony

£1.95 – Martial, Giroud, Benteke

£2.00 – Pelle

£2.05 – Sanchez

£2.20 – Costa

Mahrez is £2.30.  De Bruyne is £2.37

So no real surprises there apart from Rooney?

FPL advice sites polls

Site 1 is the main FPL advice site btw.  Apart from site 3 which has a pretty bizzare result Vardy is definitely the pick.

The top FPL managers I follow

No data this week unfortunately

Basic stats

De Bruyne Man City mid £10.7m away to Villa

7 games 3 goals 4 assists.  FPL point every  11.6 mins.  Consistency return rate (return in a game of a goal or assist) 5 returns from 7 games ie 71%.  Reasonable creating chances stats but little in the way of shooting stats.  Been moved to the left rather than centrally as expected.

De Bruynes away games to date:

CRY(A) 1-0 66 minutes 0 goals  0 assists  3 points
TOT(A) 1-4 90 minutes 1 goal 0 assists 7 points
MUN(A) 0-0 90 minutes 0 goals 0 assists 3 points

Aston Villa defence:  11 games 20 goals conceded 1 clean sheet.  Underlying defensive stats aren’t as bad as expected considering the goals conceded.  New manager Remi Garde doesn’t have a great defensive record from Lyon.

Villa Last 4 away games (most recent at the bottom)

SUN(H) 2-2
WBA(H) 0-1
STK(H) 0-1
SWA(H) 1-2

So not too bad but really you couldn’t have asked for easier fixtures.  They really haven’t played any one difficult at home.

Summary::  Excellent start.  Lack of underlying shooting stats and wide position aren’t great.  Hard to take much from recent away games. Very obliging defence even if the underlying stats aren’t too bad

Pelle Southampton  fwd £8.5m away to Sunderland

11 games 6 goals 5 assists.  FPL point every 15.3 mins.  Consistency return rate 6 returns from 11 games ie 55%.  Only Aguero and Giroud have better shooting stats.  Very little creating chances stats though

Pelles away games:

NEW(A) 2-2 90 minutes 1 goal 0 assists 5 points
WAT(A) 0-0 78 minutes 0 goal 0 assists  2 points
WBA(A) 0-0 90 minutes 0 goal 0 assists  2 points
CHE(A) 3-1 90 minutes 1 goal 2 assists  14 points
LIV(A) 1-1 90 minutes 0 goal 0 assists 2 points

So pretty inconsistent but against the 2 failing defences in Newcastle and Sunderland he did return.  Does seem to have a bonus problem though.  Needs 2 returns to get them and 2 assists even didn’t record 1 point in 1 instance.

Sunderland:  11 games 25 goals conceded 1 clean sheets.  The worst defensive team in the league.  Underlying defensive stats are among the worst in the division.

Sunderland last 4 home games:

SWA(H) 1-1
TOT(H) 0-1
WHU(H) 2-2
NEW(H) 3-0

So actually not as bad as I expected

Summary:  Pretty consistent although away not as good.  Good returns todate.  Great underlying stats.  The bonus position isn’t ideal though.  Despite the home record the defence has generally been dire and deservedly the worst in the league

Vardy Leicester fwd £7.3m home to Watford

11 games 11 goals 1 assist.  FPL point every  12.7 mins.  Consistency return rate 10 returns from 11 games ie 91%  Great shooting and creating underlying stats

Vardys home games:

SUN(H) 4-2 81 minutes 1 goal 0 assists 5 points
TOT(H) 1-1 90 minutes 0 goals 1 assist  5 points
AVL(H) 3-2 90 minutes 1 goal 0 assists 6 points
ARS(H) 2-5 90 minutes 2 goals 0 assists 12 points
CRY(H) 1-0 90 minutes  1 goal 0 assists 5 points

So a return in every home game.  Only 2 of his 11 bonus points have been at home though which isn’t ideal

Watford defence are no mugs.  The 6th best ranked defence.   11 games 10 goals conceded 5 clean sheet.  Underlying defensive stats are good if not quite at the 7th ranked level.

Watford Last 4 away games (most recent at the bottom)

MCI(A) 0-2
NEW(A) 2-1
BOU(A) 1-1
STK(A) 2-0

So that does tend to back up they are no mugs.

Summary:  Vardy has been incredible and the underlying stats show that it’s been no fluke. Bonus position isn’t ideal though.   However Leicester are up against no defensive idiots.  Still we said that when they went to play WBA.

Mahrez Leicester mid £6.6m home to Watford

11 games 7 goals 5 assists.  FPL point every 9.1 mins.  Consistency return rate 8 returns from 10 games ie 80%. Very good shooting and creating chances stats

Mahrez’s home games:

SUN(H) 4-2 76 minutes 2 goals 0 assists 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 bonus 15 points
TOT(H) 1-1 90 minutes 1 goal 0 assists 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 bonus 10 points
AVL(H) 3-2 90 minutes 0 goals 2 assists 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 bonus 11 points
ARS(H) 2-5 90 minutes 0 goals 0 assists 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 bonus 2 points
CRY(H) 1-0 78 minutes  0 goals 1 assists 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 bonus   6 points

So pretty consistent and 3 double figure hauls out of 5 games can’t be argued with.  Good bonus returns.

Watford defence as for Vardy:

Watford defence are no mugs.  The 6th best ranked defence.   11 games 10 goals conceded 5 clean sheet.  Underlying defensive stats are good if not quite at the 7th ranked level.

Watford Last 4 away games (most recent at the bottom)

MCI(A) 0-2
NEW(A) 2-1
BOU(A) 1-1
STK(A) 2-0

So that does tend to back up they are no mugs.

Summary:  Has been incredible.  Consistent and draws bonus points.  Its no fluke as the underlying stats are fantastic.  The defence are no mugs but does that matter

The FFGeek choice:

All have negatives.  De Bruyne his position and lack of shooting stats.  Pelle lack of bonus and not as consistent away.  The Leicester duo issue is the stubborn opposition.  Normally I would go for Vardy as the poll leader.  I am tempted by Mahrez though.    Mahrez seems more explosive at home and has  good bonus potential.  Even Pelle against Sunderland is attractive but his bonus position doesn’t excite me.  At the moment I’ve got it with Vardy and thats the safe choice but I’m going to sleep on it.  I will at least tweet if I change my mind.  Good luck who ever you choose.

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