fantasy premier league captain choice GW15

Fantasy Premier League

Here’s our fantasy premier league captain choice GW15 article.  We look at the fixtures, the anytime goal scorer bookies odds, other FPL advice sites polls, the FFGeek choice and 2 of the top 10 FPL managers I follow.  Also this week were back to giving some stats on the leading contenders

fantasy premier league captain choice GW15

Here’s the fixtures firstly or a bit of context

fpl..gw15fixtures

So Arsenal, Southampton and Chelsea seem to have the best fixtures

 Bookies odds

Here’s the anytime goalscoring odds for those at less then £2.40 for £1 invested.

£1.73 – Giroud

£2.00 – Costa, Benteke,

£2.05 – Pelle

£2.15 –Martial Remy Hazard

£2.20 –Bony, Kane, Sturridge, Lukaku

De Bruyne is £3.30 and Ozil is £2.45

FPL advice sites polls

                                        site 1 site 2 site 3 site 4
 Ozil 20%                 18%          43% 22%
 Lukaku 17%20%17%23%
 De Bruyne 10%6%4%2%
 Hazard 8%13%n/a%12%

Site 1 is the main FPL advice site btw. Interesting week and if there is a big difference in the Lukaku and Ozil points then it will be a rank changing week.  Interestingly site 1 and the top 10k FPL rank captain pick have a reasonable correlation if you’re picking defensively.  Site 3 continues to baffle me.  I have to try and introduce a poll on our site.

The top FPL managers I follow

Only 2 at the moment and both have gone for Ozil

Basic stats of the top 4

Lukaku Everton  fwd £9.0m home to C Palace

14 games 10 goals 4 assists.  FPL point every  13.3 mins.  Consistency return rate (return in a game of a goal or assist) 8 returns from 14 games ie 57%. Pretty good shooting and creating chances stats considering tricky fixtures earlier on.  Fairly reliable for 90 minutes too.

Lukaku home games to date:

WAT(H) 2-2 90 minutes 0 Goals 1 Assists 0 Bonus 5 points
MCI(H) 0-2 90 minutes 0 Goals 0 Assists 0 Bonus 2 Points
CHE(H) 3-1 90 minutes 0 Goals 0 Assists 0 Bonus 2 Points
LIV(H) 1-1 90 minutes 1 Goals 0 Assists 2 Bonus 7 Points
MUN(H) 0-3 90 minutes 0 Goals 0 Assists 0 Bonus 1 Point
SUN(H) 6-2 77 minutes 1 Goals  2 Assists 2 Bonus 14 Points

A Villa (H) 4-0 90 minutes 2 Goals  0 Assists 2 Bonus 12 Points

So a slow start which was understandable considering the fixtures but 3 out of the last 4 good scores

C Palace defence:  6 games away with only 5 goals conceded but only 1  clean sheet.  Underlying defensive stats are mixed.  They concede alot of shots in the box but give away very few big chances and lead the least errors table

Palace  away games (most recent at the bottom)

NOR(A) 3-1
CHE(A) 2-1
TOT(A) 0-1
WAT(A) 1-0
LEI(A) 0-1
LIV(A) 2-1

So a very impressive defensive record away from home especially when you consider that Chelsea, Spurs, Leicester and Liverpool are in that lot.

Summary: Lukau is in great form in an attacking team on fire.  However Palace have shown they are no mugs against anyone defensively away from home.

Ozil  mid £9.5m home to Sunderland

14 games 2 goals 11 assists.  FPL point every 12.4   mins.  Consistency return rate 10 returns from 14 games ie 71% and returned a goal or assist in each of the last 8 games.   Top assist provider and leading the creating chances stats and plays as a CAM.

Ozils home games:

WHMU(H) 0-2 90 minutes 0 goal 0 assist 0 bonus 2 pointS
LIVP(H) 0-0 90 minutes 0 goal 0 assist    0 bonus   3 points
STOK(H) 2-0 90 minutes 0 goal 1 assist    0 bonus  5 points
MANU(H) 3-0 90 minutes 1 goal 1 assist    2 bonus   13 points
EVTN(H) 2-1 90 minutes 0 goal 1 assist    0 bonus   5 points
TOTT(H) 1-1 90 minutes 0 goal  1 assists  3 bonus 8 points

So a return in his last 4 home games although only 1 10 pointer.  Interestingly in his last 3 games home and away he’s got the maximum bonus.  Tricky fixtures in alot of games though.

Sunderland defence away:  7 games 18 goals conceded 1 clean sheet.  Underlying defensive stats are near the bottom except for least errors which is a good stat.  It’s all about Big Sam though and his effect on the defence.  After a rocky start it’s 2 clean sheets albeit Palace away and Stoke at home who are two of the least threatening attacks.

Sunderland away games (most recent at the bottom)

LEI(A) 2-4
AVL(A) 2-2
BOU(A) 0-2
MUN(A) 0-3
WBA(A) 0-1
EVE(A) 2-6
CRY(A) 1-0

So a terrible record but again it’s all about Big Sam. If they concede early it could be very interesting if they don’t it could be an Arsenal sideways passing special

Summary:  Mr Consistency just keeps delivering and he’s against one of the worst defences in the league.  It’s just whether you believe Big Sam has really turned water into wine after 2 consecutive clean sheets although to be fair Sunderland did perform defensively last season.

De Bruyne Man City  mid £10.8m away to Stoke

10 games 4 goals 6 assists.  FPL point every 12.0 mins.  Consistency return rate 6 returns from 10 games ie 60%.  Very good underlying creating chances stats but little in the way of shooting.  Silva presence could be an issue.

De Bruynes away games:

CRYP(A) 1-0 66 minutes 0 goals 0 assists 0 bonus  3 points
TOTT(A) 1-4 90 minutes 1 goals 0 assists 0 bonus   7 points
MANU(A) 0-0 90 minutes 0 goals 0 assists 0 bonus 3 points
AVLA(A) 4-1 90 minutes 0 goal 0 assists  0 bonus 3 points

So really not much to write about away from home as he’s only returned one.

Stoke home defence:  6 games 7 goals conceded 1 clean sheets. The underlying defensive stats at home have been very good in all departments near the top.  So they have been unlucky with that record.  Having Shawcross back has really helped and its 3 clean sheets in the 4 games he’s played.

Stokes home games this season:

LIV(H) 0-1
WBA(H) 0-1
LEI(H) 2-2
BOU(H) 2-1
WAT(H) 0-2
CHE(H) 1-0

So not a great record and the opposition hasn’t been that spectacular either

Summary: A strange one this.  KDB has performed at home but not away.  Is a great assister with little shooting stats but will Silva reduce his influence?  Stoke have been strong defensively but not at home.  However the underlying stats suggest they have been unlucky

Hazard Chelsea  mid £10.9m home to Bournemouth

14 games 1 goals 3 assists.  FPL point every 26.0 mins.  Consistency return rate 4 returns from 14 games ie 29%.  Not returned in his last 5 starts.  OK underlying creating chances stats but little in the way of shooting. Terrible stats.  Does have pen duties.

Hazards home games:

SWAN(H) 2-2 90 minutes 0 Goals 0 Assists 0 Bonus 2 points
CPLE(H) 1-2 90 minutes 0 Goals 0 Assists 0 Bonus 2 Points
ARSN(H) 2-0 90 minutes 1 Goals 0 Assists 2 Bonus 10 Points
SOUT(H) 1-3 90 minutes 0 Goals 1 Assists 0 Bonus 5 Points
AVLA(H) 2-0 8 minutes 0 Goals 0 Assists 0 Bonus 1 Point
LIVP(H) 1.3  58 minutes 0 Goals  0 Assists 0 Bonus 1 Points

NOR(H) 1-0 90 minutes 0 Goals 0 Assists 0 Bonus 3 Points
so 2 returns in 7 games isn’t much to write home about.  You could argue that only the Swansea and the Norwich games are captain type material games.

Bournemouth away defence:  7 games 18 goals conceded 0 clean sheets. The underlying defensive stats are pretty terrible too especially big chances conceded.  Howe seems determined not to park the bus as well which makes it worse.

Bournemouths away games this season:

LIV(A) 0-1
WHU(A) 4-3
NOR(A) 1-3
STK(A) 1-2
MCI(A) 1-5
SOU(A) 0-2
SWA(A) 2-2

So a pretty terrible record to say the least conceding a minmum of 2 goals in each game except 1

Summary: Lets get this straight as it’s very simple.  This is about a quality player out of form with a great fixture against a poor defence and pens as a back up.  

The FFGeek choice:

So a crucial captain pick.  Personally Im going for Ozil although I don’t have Hazard or KDB.  The Palace stats didn’t help and although I know Big Sam will park the bus has he done enough to stop Arsenal?

Good luck who ever you choose.

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