fantasy premier league captain choice GW17

Here’s our fantasy premier league captain choice GW17 article.  We look at the fixtures, the anytime goal scorer bookies odds, other FPL advice sites polls, the FFGeek choice and 2 of the top 10 FPL managers I follow.  Also this week were back to giving some stats on the leading contenders

fantasy premier league captain choice GW17

Here’s the fixtures firstly or a bit of context

So good fixtures for Chelsea and Man Utd

 Bookies odds

Here’s the anytime goalscoring odds for those at less then £2.40 for £1 invested.

£2.00 – Costa

£2.05 – Hazard

£2.10 – Lukaku

£2.20 -Remy

£2.30 – Martial, Depay, Rooney, Aguero

£2.37 – Benteke

£2.40 – Pedro

Mahrez is £3.00 by the way but he does have strong assist potential too. Wijnaldum is £3.40

Not a great day for odds thats for sure with nothing under £2.00

FPL advice sites polls

Site 1 is the main FPL advice site btw and it is a pretty reasonable correlation for what the top 10k play although interestingly this definitely wasn’t the case last week.  Thats one reason why it was a rank changing week.

The top FPL managers I follow

2 at the moment have got visible teams.  Both have gone for Lukaku

Some stats

I’ve analysed just Lukaku and Mahrez plus the defences they face

Lukaku Everton  fwd £9.2m home to Leicester

16 games 12 goals 4 assists.  FPL point every  12.9 mins.  Consistency return rate (return in a game of a goal or assist) 10 returns from 16 games ie 63%. Pretty good shooting and creating chances stats.   Fairly reliable for 90 minutes too.  Will have pen duties

Lukaku home games to date with the most recent at the bottom:

WAT(H) 2-2 90 minutes 0 Goals 1 Assists 0 Bonus 5 points
MCI(H) 0-2 90 minutes 0 Goals 0 Assists 0 Bonus 2 Points
CHE(H) 3-1 90 minutes 0 Goals 0 Assists 0 Bonus 2 Points
LIV(H) 1-1 90 minutes 1 Goals 0 Assists 2 Bonus 7 Points
MUN(H) 0-3 90 minutes 0 Goals 0 Assists 0 Bonus 1 Point
SUN(H) 6-2 77 minutes 1 Goals  2 Assists 2 Bonus 14 Points

A Villa (H) 4-0 90 minutes 2 Goals  0 Assists 2 Bonus 12 Points

C PAL  (H) 1-1 90 minutes 1 Goals  0 Assists 2 Bonus 8 Points

Games against the lower ranked defensive teams, apart from Chelsea,  have all seen good returns.

Leicester defence:  Overall 16 games 3 clean sheets and 22 goals conceded.  I’ve ranked them the 11th best defence.  Also 2 clean sheets in the last 6.

Away has been better than home interestingly.  8 games away with only 9 goals conceded 2  clean sheets. Underlying defensive stats away from home are pretty good.

Leicester away games (most recent at the bottom)

WHU(A) 2-1
BOU(A) 1-1
STK(A) 2-2
NOR(A) 2-1
SOU(A) 2-2
WBA(A) 3-2
NEW(A) 3-0
SWA(A) 3-0

So quite good fixtures away have seen mixed results.  Last 2 have been excellent but against fairly inconsistent opposition.  Huth suspended won’t help either.

Summary: Lukaku is in great form having scored in the last 6 games and the underlying stats show it’s no fluke.  The Leicester defence hasn’t played a real quality attacking team (Southampton the closest)  away from home and has conceded although 2 consecutive clean sheets in the last 2.

Mahrez Leicester mid £7.0m away to Everton

15 games 11 goals 7 assists.  FPL point every 9.1 mins.  Consistency return rate 11 returns from 15 games ie 73%.  Good overall shooting and creating chances stats

Mahrez’s away  games most recent at the bottom

WHM(A) 2-1 81 minutes 1 goal 0 assist 3 bonus    10 points
BOU(A)  1-1   45 minutes 0 goal 0 assist    0 bonus  1 points
STK(A) 2-2   90 minutes 1 goal 1 assist    2 bonus  11 points
SOU(A) 2-2  45 minutes 0 goal 1 assist    0 bonus   4 points
WBA(A) 3-2  90 minutes 2 goal 0 assist    3 bonus  15 points
NEW(A) 3-0 88 minutes 0 goal  1 assists  3 bonus 9 points

SWA(A) 3-0 89 minutes 3 goal  0 assists  3 bonus 21 points

Thats just a ridiculously good record.  It’s not surprising given that as a counter attacking team he would be more successful away from home.

Everton defence :  Overall 16 games 4 clean sheets and 21 goals conceded.  I’ve ranked them the 12th best defence.  Also 1 clean sheet in the last 6.

Home defence: 8 games 12 goals conceded 1 clean sheets. The underlying defensive stats are mixed.

Evertons home games this season with the most recent last:

WAT(H) 2-2
MCI(H) 0-2
CHE(H) 3-1
LIV(H) 1-1
MUN(H) 0-3
SUN(H) 6-2
AVL(H) 4-0
CRY(H) 1-1

So not a great record at all.  No Jagielka doesn’t help either

Summary:

Mahrez is a player in fantastic form who is very consistent and explosive away from home.  He also the underlying stats to prove it’s no fluke.  The Everton defence has been pretty ordinary to say the least and that in the main reflects the underlying stats.

The FFGeek choice:

I’m sticking with Lukaku although Mahrez is tempting

Good luck who ever you choose.

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