Fantasy Premier league captain choice GW19

Here’s our fantasy premier league captain choice GW19 article.  We look at the fixtures, the anytime goal scorer bookies odds, other FPL advice sites polls, the FFGeek choice and any of the top 10 FPL managers I follow that are active.  Were also giving some stats on the leading contenders

Fantasy Premier league captain choice GW19

 Bookies odds

Here’s the anytime goalscoring odds for those at less then £2.40 for £1 invested.

£1.91 –  Aguero

£2.00 – Giroud

£2.20 – Walcott

£2.30  – Lukaku, Kane, Benteke, Origi

£2.45 – Vardy

Ozil is £2.90

FPL advice sites polls

Site 1 is the main FPL advice site btw but seems to have lost it’s correlation with the top 10k.  Not sure whats going on with site 2 no captains poll this week

The top FPL managers I follow

No information this week unfortunately

Some stats

Just the 2 this week as time is marching on and this part is very time intensive

Lukaku Everton  fwd £9.3m home to Stoke

18 games 13 goals 4 assists.  FPL point every  13.5 mins.  Consistency return rate (return in a game of a goal or assist) 11 returns from 18 games ie 61%. Pretty good shooting and creating chances stats.   Fairly reliable for 90 minutes too.  Will have pen duties.  Probably one of the safer bets from rotation

Lukaku home games to date with the most recent at the bottom:

WAT(H) 2-2 90  5 pts
MCI(H) 0-2 90  2 pts
CHE(H) 3-1 90 2 pts
LIV(H) 1-1 90 7 pts
MUN(H) 0-3 90  1 pts
SUN(H) 6-2 77  14pts
AVL(H) 4-0 90 12 pts
CRY(H) 1-1 90  8 pts
LEI(H) 2-3 90 6 pts

Good recent form and a good record against the lower ranked sides

Stoke defence:  Overall 18 games 8 clean sheets and 16 goals conceded.  I’ve ranked them the 5th best defence.  Also 4 clean sheets in the last 6.

Clean sheet prospects this week I’ve ranked them 9th.  The bookies when I wrote the article very different  17th.

Home form  9 games away with only 7 goals conceded 5  clean sheets.The underlying stats aren’t as good though apart from errors where they are the best

Stoke away games (most recent at the bottom)

TOT(A) 2-2
NOR(A) 1-1
ARS(A) 0-2
AVL(A) 1-0
SWA(A) 1-0
NEW(A) 0-0
SOU(A) 1-0
SUN(A) 0-2
WHU(A) 0-0

So pretty good stats to say the least.

Summary: So Lukaku is in great form at home and has played well against the lower ranked sides.  However Stoke have emerged as one of the best defences in the league although you could make a case that they are out performing their underlying stats

Ozil Arsenal mid £9.9m home to Bournemouth

17 games 2 goals 15 assists.  FPL point every 12.6 mins.  Consistency return rate 13 returns from 17 games ie 76%.  Good creating chances stats.  Not much in the way of shooting stats.  Has some set piece representation.  Is due to the fixture a potential rotation target

Ozil’s  games most recent at the bottom

WHU(H) 0-2 90 2 pts
LIV(H) 0-0 90  3 pts
STK(H) 2-0 83 5 pts
MUN(H) 3-0 74  13 pts
EVE(H) 2-1 90 5 pts
TOT(H) 1-1 90  8 pts
SUN(H) 3-1 90   6 pts
MCI(H) 2-1 75  11 pts

Sp pretty consistent if not a lot of double figure scores.  No real correlation of points and easy fixtures with the 2 double figure hauls against the Manchester clubs

Bournemouth defence :  Overall 18 games 3 clean sheets and 32 goals conceded.  I’ve ranked them the 16th best defence.  Form isn’t that bad though with 1 clean sheets in the last 6.

In terms of this weeks clean sheet prospects I and the bookies have ranked them the least likely to get a clean sheet.

Home defence: 9 games 19 goals conceded 1 clean sheets which is bottom qurter.  The underlying defensive stats are mixed but not quite as bad2

Bournemouths away games this season with the most recent last:

LIV(A) 0-1
WHU(A) 4-3
NOR(A) 1-3
STK(A) 1-2
MCI(A) 1-5
SOU(A) 0-2
SWA(A) 2-2
CHE(A) 1-0
WBA(A) 2-1

A defence that has improved but still fairly leaky.

Summary:  Probably the riskiest choice about this selection is whether he will start or not.  Very consistent and needing to reassert themselves after the loss to Southampton should see a fairly motivated and focused performance.  Playing against a poor albeit improved defence adds to rotation risk but Ozils returns don’t correlate negatively with the quality of the opposition.

The FFGeek choice:

Probably just going for Ozil.

Good luck who ever you choose.

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