Fantasy Premier league captain choice GW21

Here’s our fantasy premier league captain choice GW21 article.  We look at the fixtures, the anytime goal scorer bookies odds, other FPL advice sites polls, the FFGeek choice and any of the top 10 FPL managers I follow that are active.  Were also giving some stats on the leading contenders

Fantasy Premier league captain choice GW21

Firstly here’s the fixtures:

 Bookies odds

Here’s the anytime goalscoring odds for those at less then £2.60 for £1 invested.

£1.85 –  Aguero

£1.95 – Diego Costa

£2.10 – Kane

£2.20 –

£2.30  –

£2.40 – Rooney

£2.60 – Bojan, Giroud

De Bruyne is £2.90

Even increasing it to £2.60 this week the players within that are pretty thin on the ground

FPL advice sites polls

Only 3 up as I write this although it’s a fairly clear message.  It should be noted that Costa is an injury doubt.  Site 1 is the main FPL advice site btw and seems to have got back it’s correlation with the top 10k captain picks.

The top FPL managers I follow

I only know 1 at this stage and he’s going Aguero

Some stats

Here’s some stats on the 2 leading contenders and the defences they face

Aguero  fwd £13.1m home to Everton

18 games (2 as sub) 8 goals 1 assists.  FPL point every  13.6 mins.  Consistency return rate (return in a game of a goal or assist) 5 returns from 13 games ie 38% which is poor. Probably the best shooting stats of any forward.   Has played alot of minutes in a short time since returning from injury so hard to see him lasting the 90.  Will have pen duties.

Aguero home games to date with the most recent at the bottom:

CHE(H) 3-0     82 mins  6 pts
WAT(H) 2-0    90 mins  2 pts
WHU(H) 1-2   90 mins   5 pts
NEW(H) 6-1   65 mins   25 pts
LIV(H) 1-4     65 mins   6 pts
SOU(H) 3-1   63 mins 2 pts

So there’s no problem with the team scoring goals.  He’s returned something in 4/6 games but only 1 high scoring game.  Has scored against Watford away in the last premier league game and against Norwich in the FA Cup.

Everton defence:  Overall 20 games 5 clean sheets and 29 goals conceded.  I’ve ranked them the 15th best defence.  Also 1 clean sheets in the last 6.

Clean sheet prospects this week both I and the bookies ranked them 20th.

Their away defence is much better than at home with 9 games away with only 9 goals conceded and 4  clean sheets.  The underlying stats though aren’t great and suggest some overperformance

Everton away games (most recent at the bottom)

SOU(A) 3-0
TOT(A) 0-0
SWA(A) 0-0
WBA(A) 3-2
ARS(A) 1-2
WHU(A) 1-1
BOU(A) 3-3
NOR(A) 1-1
NEW(A) 1-0

So a couple of blips but not bad stats.  There are some of the poorer attacking teams in there though.  They should be improved with Jagielka back from injury.

Summary: There’s no doubting Aguero’s quality.  He’s one of the worlds best strikers.  His returns per minute are good.  He has the ability to score big at any time and his recent games against Watford, Everton in the Cap 1 and Norwich in the FA Cup have been good.  However he has only scored more than 10 FPL points once this season and the lack of minutes have meant he’s only got 6 bonus points from the 8 goals and 1 assist.  As a % of games returning a goal or assist 38% is also pretty woeful.   Even if you ignore the sub appearances it’s still only 45%.   It’s also hard to see him making anything like the 90 minutes if the win looks secure. He’s only got past 80 in 6 of his 11 starts. The Everton defence has been poor this season but it’s mainly been reserved for the home fans.  Jagielka back should improve it

Kane Spurs fwd £9.8m home to Leicester

20 games 11 goals 1 assists.  FPL point every 17.7 mins.  Consistency return rate 8 returns from 20 games ie 40% which is pretty poor.  However if you ignore the first 9 games when he started the season slow it’s  then it’s 7 returns in 11 games or 64% which is very good.  Good creating chances stats.  Good underlying shooting stats and has pens.

Kanes home  games most recent at the bottom

STK(H) 2-2 63 minutes   2 pts
EVE(H) 0-0 90  minutes 2  pts
CRY(H) 1-0 90  minutes     2  pts
MCI(H) 4-1 90   minutes 7  pts
LIV(H) 0-0 90  minutes 2  pts
AVL(H) 3-1 90   minutes  8  pts
WHU(H) 4-1 90  minutes 13  pts
CHE(H) 0-0 90  minutes 1  pts
NEW(H) 1-2 90 minutes   2  pts
NOR(H) 3-0 90  minutes  13  pts

So pretty inconsistent but can score big.

Leicester defence :  Overall 20 games 5 clean sheets and 25 goals conceded.  I’ve ranked them the 12th best defence.  Form is very good though with 3 clean sheets in the last 6.

In terms of this weeks clean sheet prospects I’ve ranked them the 15th most likely team to get a clean sheet and the bookies have ranked them the 18th most likely to get a clean sheet.

Away defence: 10 games 12 goals conceded 2 clean sheets which is lower mid table.  The underlying defensive stats are mixed.

Leicesters away games this season with the most recent last:
WHU(A) 2-1
BOU(A) 1-1
STK(A) 2-2
NOR(A) 2-1
SOU(A) 2-2
WBA(A) 3-2
NEW(A) 3-0
SWA(A) 3-0
EVE(A) 3-2
LIV(A) 0-1

So a defence that hasn’t conceded more than 2 but does concede most games

Summary:  A hard one to predict this which in itself is risky.  Kane can score big but has been unpredicatable.  Does have pens.  The Leicester defence has improved recently with a more pragmatic approach but still concedes goals.

The FFGeek choice:

I’ll be going for Aguero

Good luck who ever you choose.

Follow us on twitter @fantasyfoot20 or facebook at www.facebook.com/fantasyfootballgeek
This website is free. If you find it useful please support us via the donate button on the site
fantasy premier league league code: 68300-19117
Sky Sports Fantasy Football: PIN: 8124402
Sun Dream Team: FANTASYFOOTBALLGEEK PIN: 8360910
Telegraph Fantasy Football: FantasyFootballGeek PIN 8000919
Fox Sports Fantasy Premier league: 8631-1261
Fox Sports Fantasy A League: League code 4277-867