Here’s our fantasy premier league captain choice GW4 article where we look at a number of ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. As usual we look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls, underlying stats and the FFGeek choice.
FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE CAPTAIN CHOICE GW4
THE FIXTURES
Here’s the fixtures for GW4:
The bookies see 5 teams as favourites with the following win odds less than £2.00 for £1 invested. It’s likely the fantasy premier league captain choice GW4 will come from one of those teams.
Arsenal £1.36 (Lacazette and Sanchez)
Man Utd £1.50 (Lukaku, Mkhitaryan and Pogba)
Southampton £1.67 (no one )
Man City £1.85 (Jesus)
West Ham £1.85 (Chicharito0
If you want to see detailed stats on these players you can see it in our player ranking articles for midfielders and forwards
Lacazette btw is the favourite as you’ll see below and mentioned in Rob Reids player picks article
I’m surprised at the odds for Man City and Southampton. They are from William Hill btw. Interestingly Liverpool are £4.00 to win and Watford £5.50 which surprised me as odds.
THE BOOKIES ODDS
Here we look at one of the bookies anytime goal scoring odds. I’ve tried to only put players in who have some gametime security. It’s the return for £1 invested. Odds are as of Friday mid day and remember they assume the player starts and don’t count assist potential.
£1.70 – Lacazette
£1.75 – Sanchez
£1.80 – Lukaku
£1.91 – Jesus and Aguero
£2.00 – Kane and Morata
£2.15 – Gabbiadini and Chicharito
£2.25 – Vokes
£2.40 – Abraham
THE FPL ADVICE SITE POLLS.
It’s worth noting here that the FFGeek poll asks who you are going to appoint as captain to reflect the reality of the spread of captain choices. Others ask who is the best captain. Others just say captain poll and leave the question up to you.
Firstly here’s the FFGeek poll:
So Lukaku a clear leader
Here’s the summary of the other main advice polls. It’s worth noting that site 1 is the site with the most traffic
Again Lukaku a clear winner
SQUAWKA COMPARISON
Here’s a comparison between the 4 main strikers:
So Kane has more and better quality shots but is way behind in accuracy. Lacazette seems well off the pace
Here’s the defensive stats from Squawka of the 4 teams:
Lets look at the results of the 4 defences:
Lukaku – Stoke A
Everton A – 0-1
Arsenal H – 1-0
WBA A – 1-1
Kane – Everton A
Stoke H 1-0
Man City – 1-1
Chelsea – 0-2
Morata – Leicester A
Arsenal A – 3-4
Brighton H – 2-0
Man Utd A – 0-2
Lacazette – Bournemouth H
WBA A – 0-1
Watford H – 0-2
Man City H – 1-2
So Stoke look the strongest although Everton have ad 2 very tough games. Bournemouth look the weakest
SUMMARY AND FFGEEK CHOICE
The bookies favour Lacazette at £1.70 and Sanchez but it’s close with Lukaku at £1.80 and Kane at £1.91
The FFGeek poll and the other polls clearly favour Lukaku with Kane a distant sceond. Morata, Lacazette and Chicharito way behind.
The stats show Lukaku and Morata as successful so far with 3 goals and 2 goals 2 assists respectively. However Kane has the more shots by some distance but fails on shot accuracy. Morata and Lukaku are behind Kane in shots but have better accuracy stats. Lacazette is very disappointing
Of the defences I would say Everton are the strongest of the 3 but have played Man City and Chelsea in their opening games. Stoke have had the best defensive start according to Squawka
In situations where there is a clear poll leader I generally go with that person. The captain choice for me is a shield not a sword and something to prevent rank drops as much as make gains. Believe me there will be loads of cases where the polls are split and you’ll be forced into a choice where there is no shield and only a sword.
Good luck whoever you choose
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