fantasy premier league captain gameweek 33 who to pick?

Fantasy Premier League

Here’s the fantasy premier league captain gameweek 33 who to pick article?

 Generally my choice is based on home games for quality players against lower table opposition.  Today the position is clouded by the DGW.  However with the fixtures I’m only considering players from Arsenal and Everton.  3 players are analysed,  Cazorla Walcott and Fellaini.  There’s a summary at the end if you want to cut to the chase and can’t be bothered with how I got there.

Cazorla (Norwich H, Everton H)

So lets set the scene before we look at his home record against lower table opposition ie what I call captain qualifying opposition.  His last 6 starts  have returned 42 points and his last 3, 17.  He’s the 7th midfielder for shooting stats overall and in the last 6 gameweeks is 3rd and the last 3, 4th.  He also creates chances with Silva and Gerrard only creating more this season.  He is also consistently the most involved player for Arsenal in the attacking areas of the pitch.

Sunderland H – 3 points

Southampton H – 5 points

QPR H – 3 points

Fulham H – 2 points

Swansea H – 2 points

WBA H – 6 points

Newcastle H – 5 points

West Ham  – 7 points

Aston Villa – 12 points

Reading H – 15 points

Obviously this analysis is more for the Norwich game.  He’s returned in 6/10 games ie 60% and double digit returns in 2/10 games ie 20%.  If you’re looking at overall consistency of returns in home games its 50%.  These are ok stats but what you’re really basing your hopes on  is the last 2 home games against Villa and Reading.  His 13 point haul against Spurs though does show he can do it against the better teams too.

So what about Norwich?  Here’s there results away to what I call the elite teams:

Spurs A 1-1

Chelsea  A lost 1-4

Everton A 1-1

Liverpool A lost 0-5

Man Utd A lost 0-4

So they are certainly ripe for a thrashing at an average of 3 goals per game and having conceded 3 goals or more in 60% of games. They are 16th in goals conceded away from home conceding 32 goals in 16 games with 2 clean sheets.

Everton have a much better record conceding 20 in 15 games away and are 6th in goals conceded away from home

So using Norwich as the big draw, in summary based on past history, for the Norwich game only you have a 60% chance of Cazorla  returning and a 20% chance of it being double digits with a 60% chance of Norwich conceding 3 goals or more.  Cazorla has an overall return rate for home games of 50%

Walcott (Norwich H, Everton H)

So if you’re willing to gamble that Walcott will start then here’s the anlaysis for him.  The injury has removed him from the latest shooting stats although in his last 6 starts he’s returned 31 points which is good but his last 3 starts saw the stats drop off and he scored 10 points with a notable bank at home to Villa.  As for  home games against qualifying opposition here’s his record where he’s started:

Sunderland H – 3 points

Fulham H – 8 points

Swansea H – 2 points

Newcastle H – 26 points

West Ham  – 11 points

Aston Villa – 2 points

Again this  analysis is more for the Norwich game.  He’s returned in 3/6 games ie 50% and double digit returns in 2/6 games ie 33%.  If you’re looking at overall consistency of returns in home games it’s 60%.   The ability to get explosive returns is apparent but so is the drop off in his last 3 games before the injury.

Interestingly in 6 appearances as sub Walcott has come on and got returns in 2 of those games which gives hope that he could do so if on the bench today.

I wont repeat the Norwich stats which you can see with Cazorla

 

Fellaini (QPR H Arsenal A)

Another person returning from games off except suspension rather than injury.  As far as returns are concerned he’s scored 39 points which is excellent and 21 in his last 3.

Lets look at his home form against captain qualifying teams for home games:

Newcastle H – 1 point

Southampton  H  – 2 points

Sunderland H  – 13 points

Swansea H – 6 points

WBA H – 2 points

Aston Villa H – 15 points

Reading H – 12 points

Obviously this analysis is more for the QPR game.  Fellaini’s  returned in 4/7 games against Captai qualifying opposition ie 57% and double digit returns in  3/7 games ie 43%.  If you’re looking at overall consistency of returns of all games home or away is  a very respectable 61%.  Against the elite teams he’s only played 2 away getting 9 points away to City but Phil Jones stopped him at Old Trafford for a 1 pointer

So what about QPR?  Here’s there results away to what I call the elite teams

City A – lost  1-3

Spurs A – lost 1-2

Arsenal A – lost 0-1

Man Utd A – lost 1-3

Chelsea A – won 1-0

So not nearly as bad as you would have thought at an average of 1.8 goals per game having conceded 3 goals or more in 2/5 (40% )of games. They are 15th in goals conceded away from home though conceding 29 goals in 16 games with 2 clean sheets.  The difference now is that they have to try and win every game which will make them more open.

Arsenal at home haven’t been that great conceding the 14th most goals with 20 in 15 matches and 4 clean sheets.

So in summary based on past history in relation to the QPR game you have a 57% chance of Ba  returning and 43% chance of it being double digits with a 40%% chance of QPR  conceding 3 goals or more

 

Summary

Here’s a table to make the comparison easier:

The Stats are in order for Cazorla Walcott and Fellaini 


% chance of return against Capt Qualf teams

60%
50%
57%
 % Chance of returning season50%60%61%
 % chance of returning based on last 6 starts 50%60%61%
 % chance of double digit returns 20%33%43%
 % chance of 1st opposition conceding 3 goals 60%60%40%

 

So if you believe that Walcott will start then these stats suggest that you should go with him.  A couple of things though.  Cazorla has just come in to form and Walcott dropped of in his last 3 games although over a longer term view Walcott, if he starts, is the best bet.   Additionally in cazorlas favour is that, in my view, it is likely that Rosicky and Wilshire wont start, (Rosicky due to injury and Wilshire because Wenger has him in cotton wool)  this really opens up the possibility that Cazorla could play in the “hole” behind and this is really potential to cause havoc and return big time.

Fellaini has really good stats and can explode on the day.  QPR have shown a better ability to defend away from home than I anticipated although they are forced in to winning games.  I just cant see all out attack.  In addition despite Arsenals defensive stats at home I think thats a tough ask for Fellaini as a 2nd game

So I’m going for Cazorla 1st, Walcott 2nd and Fellaini 3rd.

Good luck to everyone with their fantasy premier league captain gameweek 33

 

 

 

 

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