Background

Just as a general point.   I did alot of research on where the 10 point plus fantasy premier league attacking scores came from and the vast majority came from the top 4 challenging teams playing the potentially relegation threatened teams.  Now that may sound like common sense and it is how I look at where the captain choices should come from.   The theory is simple, you get more shots against the poorer teams.  What was interesting is that there wasn’t much variance between the home fixture and the away fixture.  The opposition was key.  However at the moment Suarez is breaking all the rules and is a form option irrespective of the opposition

Options

 Rooney (away to Hull City)

• Will he start?

Yes.   There doesn’t seem to be any injury issues.  Not that Moyes would bother telling anyone if there was anyway

• How consistent is he generally and away from home?

Overall consistency. 8 goals and 10 assists in 15 games  Consistency 12/15   80%  Last 5 return rate:  4/5.  Away from home seems to suit him more.  4 goals and 5 assists in 7 games.  Returned in 6/7 games.

• How has he performed against poor opposition so far

Hull have the 2nd best home defence in the league.   So while they will probably just be happy to stay up they have only conceded 3 goals at home and had 5 clean sheets.

• Whats his recent form like

Excellent returned in 4 of his last 5 with 3 goals and 4 assists.  Has been playing behind the striker though so not much in the way of goal scoring action but creating chances and producing assists.  Has alot of set piece action and will take pens.

• Whats his underlying stats like

Has reasonable shooting stats and creating chances stats which are very good.  Last couple of games behind Welbeck has had little shot production.  Welbeck may not make the game which could see Rooney up top maybe with Kagawa behind.  Could be Hernandez be up top though with Rooney behind.

• Whats the opposition defence like

The 2nd best home defence.  Only 3 goals conceded and 5 clean sheets.  Only Arsenal and Hull have kept Suarez from returning although he did have chances.  They have had the worst attacking sides to face though which means the defence is a little  overrated.

• Is he an option?

Yes due to his consistency. Hulls defence and his deep position and lack of recent shot production make me a little nervous though

Walcott (away to West Ham)

• Will he start?

Should do having a decent amount of time off with injury recently

• How consistent is he generally and away?  

Very good.  Overall 2 goals and 4 assists in 10 appearances. 4 as sub.   He’s returned in 5/10 games.   Away he’s returned in 3/4 games.

• How has he performed against good opposition so far?

Very good.  Returned against Fulham and Cardiff but not against Sunderland

• Whats his recent form like

Excellent.   2 goals in 2 games since starting back from injury.

• Whats his underlying stats like

Very good.  One of the few midfielders who’s shooting stats are so good that he doesn’t need to create chances

• Whats the opposition defence like

good.  4 clean sheets and 10 goals conceded at home.  Chelsea, Man City and Everton have all scored 3.

• Is he an option?

Yes pace suits games away from home.  West Ham have struggled against the better sides at home.  He should play.

 Hazard (home to Swansea)

• Will he start?

Has started every premier league game except 1.  Could be rested with Liverpool coming up and the number of alternative attacking options.  Difficult to be certain.

• How consistent is he generally and at home?

Overall very inconsistent 6 goals 7 assists.    Consistency 7/17   42%  Last 5 return consistency:  2/5.  At home its 3 goals and 4 assists and returning in 4 games out of 8.  No better consistency wise really.

• How has he performed against poor opposition so far

Good.  It’s his speciality and at home especially so.  Returned against Palace WBA Cardiff and Villa.  Not against Fulham and Hull.  Can return big when he does.  Could take pens if Lamps is rested.

• Whats his recent form like 

Ordinary.  2 goals and 2 assists in his last 5 games.  Returned in 2/5.

• Whats his underlying stats like

Probably the best overall underlying shooting and creating chances stats of any midfielder apart from Silva.  His underlying stats are better at home which is normal.

• Whats the opposition defence like

Not bad.  7th best away defence.  9 goals conceded 2 clean sheets.  Man City away though is the only even comparable fixture.  They lost that 3-0 which is reasonably respectable at the moment.

• Is he an option?

Not for me.  Too inconsistent.  Too much of a gametime risk

Lukaku (Sunderland Home)

• Will he start?

Hard to see that he wont.  Jelavic is the only alternative who’s very out of form.

• How consistent is he generally and  at home?

Good.   Overall:  8 goals and 4 assists in 13 games for Everton overall.  Returned in 9/13 games.    5 goals and 2 assists in 6 games at home.  Returned  in 4 of 6 games.

• How has he performed against poor opposition so far

Good.   Returned against Fulham Newcastle and Stoke but not against Hull.

• Whats his recent form like

Reasonable  Returned in 4/5 but its 3 assists and 1 goal.  Has a tendency to be quiet in games.  His game is based on movement and getting behind and between defenders. This means he can not be involved as say Suarez and Aguero are

• Whats his underlying stats like

Ok.  Good shooting stats.  Creating chances stats aren’t very good though.  The assists recently have been fortuitous to say the least.

• Whats the opposition defence like

Not as bad as you’d think.  14 goals conceded and 2 overall but improved lately.  Poyet is a good defensive coach.  They have had conceded 3 in the last 4 away games and have had 2 consecutive clean sheets away.  Brown is out though and OShea a major doubt which improves Lukakus prospects

• Is he an option?clean sheets.  

Yes but Despite the apparent consistent returns his tendency to have quiet games worries me.

Suarez (Man City away)

• Will he start?

Definitely

• How consistent is he generally and  away?

Unreal.  Overall:  18 goals and 11 assists:      Consistency 10/12    83%        Last 5 return consistency rate:  4/5.  Away returned in 6 of 8 away games.

• How has he performed against good opposition so far

Arsenal Spurs and Everton are the 3 top 4 challenging teams that Liverpool have played away.  He returned in 2 of those games and was unlucky against Arsenal.

• Whats his recent form like

Unreal.  9 goals and 7 assists in his last 5

• Whats his underlying stats like

Excellent.  The best of any striker.  Great shooting and creating chances stats.

• Whats the opposition defence like

The Man City defence is the best overall defence in the league.  5 goals conceded and 5 clean sheets.  Man Utd Spurs Arsenal and Everton are the top 4 challenging teams that have come to the Etihad.  3 of those teams have scored.  Arsenal 3.  At the moment they have no Zabaleta and no Nastasic which weakens them.

• Is he an option?

He’s always an option against anyone in current form.  Man City conceding against the better teams show their defence can be breached.

Summary:

Yes in order:

1. Suarez

2. Walcott

3.  Lukaku

4.  Rooney

Hazard is a no.

William Hill check

Here’s how William Hill see the anytime goal scorer odds market with all players at under £2.00

1.   Lukaku– £1.73

2.  Eto’o 1.80

3.  Rooney – £1.91

Defoe Soldado Torres £1.91

Suarez is £2.25  Walcott is £2.50 and Hazard £2.75

Interesting.  They are far more negative than me on Suarez and Walcott.  Far more bullish on Lukaku and Rooney

I’ve ignored Eto’o and Defoe due to game time risk.  I have no trust in Torres or Soldado.

Thats it, for my team its between Suarez and Lukaku.  Suarez is my choice at the moment but neither are perfect.  Don’t rule out a change of mind!

I hope that gives you some food for thought for your fantasy premier league captain choice.  I think Suarez will be the overwhelming choice

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