Background 

Just as a general point for those coming to the site for the first time.   I did alot of research on where the 10 point plus fantasy premier league attacking scores came from and the vast majority came from the top 4 challenging teams playing the potentially relegation threatened teams.  Now that may sound like common sense and it is how I look at where the captain choices should come from.   The theory is simple, you get more shots against the poorer teams.  What was interesting is that there wasn’t much variance between the home fixture and the away fixture.  The opposition was key.  However at the moment Suarez and Sturridge are breaking all the rules and is a form option irrespective of the opposition.

Here’s the best fixtures:

1. WBA v Man Utd

Out of that I’ve picked RVP and Mata.  To widen the net I’ve also included Lallana and Hazard

Hazard (Tottenham home)

• Will he start?

There was some drama over a kick he got in his 30 minutes during an international friendly midweek but he’s been cleared to play.  Impossible to think that he won’t start in such a big game

• How consistent is he generally  and  home?

Not that consistent but has the potential to score big.  Overall 12 goals 10 assists.   Returned in 13 of 27 games ie   48% .  At home 8 goals and 2 assists.  More goals at home than any other midfielder.   Returned in 7/14 home games.

• How has he performed against good opposition at home

Not great.  Scored against Liverpool but blanked at home to Man Utd, Everton and Man City.

• Whats his recent form like

Mixed. 2 returns in his last 6 but that was a hat trick against Newcastle and 2 assists against Fulham giving a 21 point and a 10 point haul.  Has looked superb in a lot of games though even when not returning.

• Whats his underlying stats like

Only Silva has better overall underlying shooting and creating chances stats.

• Whats the opposition defence like

Excellent.  Only Chelsea have conceded less goals away from home and they’ve only conceded more than 1 once.  However since Sherwood took over they’ve only kept 1 clean sheet away from home and conceded 6 goals in 6 games.  With Rose injured and Walker still doubtful the FBs could be Fryers and Naughton neither of whom are very expierenced.  Kyle Walker makes last weeks RB Reither look like a FB who never crosses the half way line he’s so attacking and Spurs have been caught out with him on the counter a number of times when he’s still in the opposition penalty box.

• Is he an option? 

Again it comes down to how much risk you want to take and what your other options are.  There’s no doubt that he’s put in some amazing performances recently and is a fantastic talent.  Unfortunately the home record against top 4 challenging teams is poor and he’s generally an inconsistent returner.  However he really does have the potential to score big and such is his talent it could happen against anyone.  He has got 8 returns of 10 points or more this season which is 30% of his starts.  If you compare that to say Sturridge who’s a more consistent performer he’s only got 4 or 22% of his starts.  The Spurs defence away is strong although this has been diluted by the FB injuries and Walker is probably the FB you would want Hazard to face as he’s so attacking.  Sherwood will possibly play Sandro though which should give him some cover.

Alot of factors to consider but one things for sure he’s not a straghtforward choice

RVP( WBA away)

• Will he start?

Despite the early week drama he seems fit to play

• How consistent is he generally  and  away from home?

Good.  Overall  11 goals 2 assists.   Returned in 10 out of 16 games ie  63% .  Away from home 5 goals and 1 assist from 7 starts. 2 of those were in GW1 at Swansea though.  Returned in 4 of those 7 games.

• How has he performed against poor opposition away from home

Excellent.  Returned against Swansea, Fulham, Stoke, and Palace.  Blanked against Sunderland

• Whats his recent form like

Very good.  Since coming back from injury he’s scored 4 goals in his 5 games.

• Whats his underlying stats like

Ok.  Still has good shooting stats.  Rigid central positioning and little set piece involvement have meant little assist potential and not creating chances at all.

• Whats the opposition defence like

They’ve actually performed ok at home.  16 goals conceded in 14 games and they’ve only conceded more than 1 4 times.  Apart from the injury to RB Jones they have a full strength defence.  Recently they’ve played Chelsea Everton and Liverpool at home drawing 1-1 on each occaison.  The same score resulted earlier in the year with Arsenal.

• Is he an option? 

Despite his body language and rather negative statements he is in relatively good form.  He also has pen duties which is always a good potential source of goals.  The WBA defence are no mugs though as seen from recent results against the top 4 challenging teams.  United have been very good away though and he is an option for me

Lallana (Palace away)

• Will he start?

No inury concerns and only played 30 minutes for England so yes.

• How consistent is he generally  and  away from home?

Not great.   Overall 7 goals 8 assists.    Consistency 13 returns from 28 starts  46%.  Away from home.  2 goals and 2 assists in 14 matches away from home.    Returned in 6 of those 14 games which is 43 %

• How has he performed against good opposition at home

Not great.  Returned against Cardiff and Fulham away but not against WBA, Norwich, Stoke, Sunderland and West Ham

• Whats his recent form like

Very good.  Returned in 3 of his last 5.  Hasn’t in his last 2 but played very well and was very impressive in 30 minutes for England.  Will have a lot of confidence.

• Whats his underlying stats like

Very ordinary.

• Whats the opposition defence like

Here’s the home results since Pulis took over.  It’s a pretty formidable record.  The only thing I would say is that he arrived in time to play some of the worst attacking teams at home and those are where the good results defensively are.  Against Newcastle and Man Utd they conceded 3 and 2.  That should gave Southampton some hope  as they are definitely a strong attacking side

WHU(H) 1-0
CAR(H) 2-0
NEW(H) 0-3
NOR(H) 1-1
STK(H) 1-0
HUL(H) 1-0
WBA(H) 3-1
MUN(H) 0-2

• Is he an option? 

The question with Lallana here is that is his current good form plus his attacking positioning and involvement for Southampton enough to overide his record away against the poorer teams especially given that now Palace are a reasonable defensive side.  He also doesn’t have set pieces or pens to top up the attacking returns

It’s not an easy one and all about whether you think his current form can over ride the other factors.

Mata (WBA)

• Will he start?

Given he wasn’t selected for the Spain squad and no injury issues he seems certain to play.

• How consistent is he generally  and  away  from home?

ok.  Since joining United he’s returned 3 assists in 5 games and has returned in 3 of those 5 games.

• How has he performed against poor opposition away from home

Only data is away to Stoke and Palace of which he returned an assist against Stoke and blanked against Palace.

• Whats his recent form like

Ok.  Again very little data.  Since joining United he’s returned 3 assists in 5 games and has returned in 3 of those 5 games.

• Whats his underlying stats like

Only Silva has better  creating chances stats.  Not been doing anything in the way of shooting though as he did for Chelsea.

• Whats the opposition defence like

As I said for RVP, they’ve actually performed ok at home.  16 goals conceded in 14 games and they’ve only conceded more than 1 4 times.  Apart from the injury to RB Jones they have a full strength defence.  Recently they’ve played Chelsea Everton and Liverpool at home drawing 1-1 on each occaison.  The same score resulted earlier in the year with Arsenal.

• Is he an option? 

Its a bit of a leap of faith given the fact that he’s only been at United for 5 games and you have to have faith that one of last years best midfielders is finding his way back.  In theory he will create chances for Rooney and RVP which has got to be good.  His positioning has been pretty Silva like in that he’s drifted in and found space between the lines.  The WBA defence though has coped well with the top 4 challenging teams so far.

It’s a fairly riky pick for me

William Hill check

Due to the limited games Ive had to expand the odds.  Here’s how William Hill see the anytime goal scorer odds market with all players at or under £2.25

1.  £1.91 – RVP

2.  £2.20 – Eto’o

3.  £2.25 – Rooney, F Campbell, K Jones, Torres

Mata is £3.25.  Lallana is £3.25  Hazard is £2.75

Eto’o Campbell Rooney and Jones all have gametime risk.  Rooney I think is a position risk and I talk more about it in my article earlier in the week on Man Utd.

I hope that gives you some food for thought for your fantasy premier league captain choice.

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