fantasy premier league captain picks DGW34

Here’s our fantasy premier league captain picks DGW34. As ususal we look at the bookies odds, the other FPL sites polls and any of the top 10 FPL managers we follow plus the FFGeek choice. We also analyse the stats of the leading contenders. There’s also a summary to interpret the results

fantasy premier league captain picks DGW34

The fixtures

The bookies odds (Non DGW games)

Unfortunately no odds for the double gameweek games so only the first games

Here’s the anytime goal scoring odds from one bookie as of today for below £2.50 for £1 invested:

£1.80 – Giroud/Welbeck

£1.91 –  Rashford /Rooney

£2.05 – Martial, Kane

£2.10 – Lukaku, Vardy, Sanchez,

£2.20 – Aguero

£2.30 – Sturridge

£2. 37 – Costa

£2.50 – Defoe

The FPL advice Polls

So Sanchez a big leader in all the pools.  Should also be a leader in the top 10k as the correlation between site 1 and the top 10k is pretty good

The ten top FPL managers I follow

Only 1 has shown themselves and they went for Sanchez

Some basic stats of the leading contenders

Aguero (Chelsea A Newcastle A)

Here’s his overall stats for the season: 25 games 18 goals and 2 assists. Minutes per FPL point 13.8 mins. Consistency returns 12/25   48%. 10+ point scoring 4/25   16%. Last 6 games 33 points and returns in 3/6 games. Has pens

Here’s his last 6 away games most recent at the bottom:

WAT(A) 2-1    85 minutes 9 points
WHU(A) 2-2 90 minutes 12 points
SUN(A) 1-0    90 minutes 5 points
LIV(A) 0-3    90 minutes 2 points
NOR(A) 0-0 90 minutes 2 points
BOU(A) 4-0 78 minutes  7 points

So returns in 4 of the last 6 away games and 37 points  is actaully better than his last 6 overall.

The Chelsea defence

Overall: 42 goals conceded. The 10th ranked in the league. 9 clean sheets the 11th equal ranked in the league.

Home : 24 goals conceded 16th ranked in league. 3 clean sheets 16th equal ranked

Here’s their last 6 home games most recent at the bottom:

WBA(H) 2-2
EVE(H) 3-3
MUN(H) 1-1
NEW(H) 5-1
STK(H) 1-1
WHU(H) 2-2

The Newcastle defence

Overall: 42 goals conceded. The 19th ranked in the league. 5 clean sheets the 17th equal ranked in the league.

Home : 22 goals conceded 14th ranked in league. 3 clean sheets 16th ranked in the league

Here’s their last 6 home games most recent at the bottom:

EVE(H) 0-1
MUN(H) 3-3
WHU(H) 2-1
WBA(H) 1-0
BOU(H) 1-3
SUN(H) 1-1

Sanchez (Palace h  WBA h)

Here’s his overall stats for the season: 24 games 9 goals and 5 assists. Minutes per FPL point 15.3 mins. Consistency returns 9/24   38%. 10+ point scoring 4/24   17%. Last 6 games 40 points and returns in 5/6 games.

Here’s his last 6 home games

TOT(H) 1-1   90  minutes   2 points
CHE(H) 0-1   34  minutes  1  point
SOU(H) 0-0 90   minutes 3  points
LEI(H) 2-1 90   minutes   2   points
SWA(H) 1-2 74  minutes   5   points
WAT(H) 4-0 78   minutes 14  points

Palace defence

Overall: 42 goals conceded the 10th equal ranked team. 8 clean sheets and 15th ranked clean sheet record

Away: 20 goals conceded. 8th ranked GC away. 2 clean sheets and 14th equal ranked clean sheets away

Here’s their last 6 away games most recent at the bottom:

AVL(A) 0-1
MCI(A) 0-4
SWA(A) 1-1
WBA(A) 2-3
SUN(A) 2-2
WHU(A) 2-2

WBA defence

Overall: 32 goals conceded the 8th ranked team. 11 clean sheets and 5th ranked clean sheet record

Away: 18 goals conceded. 7th ranked GC away. 6 clean sheets and 4th ranked clean sheets away

Here’s their last 6 away games most recent at the bottom:

SOU(A) 0-3
NEW(A) 0-1
EVE(A) 1-0
LEI(A) 2-2
SUN(A) 0-0
MCI(A) 1-2

Summary

Comparison Table

Gametime isn’t ranked there.  With Aguero playing midweek he is going to be more likely to have his minutes rested than Sanchez although in 2 away games that seems a very risky strategy for Pellegrini given their position and that Man Utd have 2 very winnable games in pursuit of them.

The bookies goal scoring odds are always going to favour Aguero so no surprise in that.  Aguero having pens is a big advantage.  The polls are emphatic though in the support of Sanchez and that will be reflected in the top 10k.  So to go against Sanchez who is a very dangerous big scoring player when it goes well will really hurt you if Aguero doesn’t match it.

Both players have been slow starters and Sanchez’s consistency has been frankly appaling for a player of his cost.  However his recent form has been good even though the home record doesn’t look good until the last game.

What has surprised me though is the opposition defences.  Chelsea recently have been pretty poor at home and we all know how poor Newcastle are.  However WBA and Palace have been good over the season away from home although recently Palace away have been poor.  WBA’s tactic of defence v attack has meant a good record away

So it’s how you rate those factors in your decision

The FFGeek choice

I don’t normally go against the polls and I wont here against such a dangerous player. Sanchez it is

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