fantasy premier league captain picks GW22

Here’s our fantasy premier league captain picks for GW22.  As ususal we look at the bookies odds, the other FPL sites polls, any of the top 10 FPL managers we  follows picks as well as some stat analysis on the leading contenders

fantasy premier league captain picks GW22

Firstly here’s the fixtures:

So Spurs and Man City are the teams that standout for fixtures:

Bookies odds

Here’s the anytime goal scoring odds for players at £2.50 return for £1.00 invested

£1.73 – Harry Kane

£1.80 – Aguero

£2.05 – Costa

£2.30 – Giroud

£2.50 – Alli, Lamela, Josh King

So 2 very clear winners there

Just 3 today and fairly mixed results

The top 10 FPL managers I follow

Just got detail on 2.  1 is going Kane, the other Aguero

Some basic stats

Aguero (C Palace h)

Overall 14 games (2 as sub) 8 goals 1 assists. FPL point every 14.5  mins. Consistency return rate (return in a game of a goal or assist) 5 returns from 14 games ie 36% which is poor. Probably the best shooting stats of any forward. Has played alot of minutes in a short time since returning from injury so will he last the 90. Will have pen duties.

Aguero home games to date with the most recent at the bottom:

CHE(H) 3-0 82 mins 6 pts
WAT(H) 2-0 90 mins 2 pts
WHU(H) 1-2 90 mins 5 pts
NEW(H) 6-1 65 mins 25 pts
LIV(H) 1-4 65 mins 6 pts
SOU(H) 3-1 63 mins 2 pts
EVE (H) 0-0 90 mins 2 pts

It’s really not that inspiring is it?  So a consistency rate of a return 4/7 games which isn’t that bad but only 1 return over 10 points and barely a bonus anywhere.

The C Palace defence

Overall 21 games 6 clean sheets and 20 goals conceded. I’ve ranked them the 4th best defence. Also 3 clean sheets in the last 6 all of which is very good.

Clean sheet prospects this week both I ranked them 11th.  The bookies gave them no chance and ranked them 19th.

Their away defence is excellent with 10 games away with only 8 goals conceded and 2 clean sheets. No one has conceded less goals.  The underlying stats are mixed.  Although they concede mid table shots in the box no one gives away less big chances.

The Palace defence away.  Most recent games at the bottom:

NOR(A) 3-1
CHE(A) 2-1
TOT(A) 0-1
WAT(A) 1-0
LEI(A) 0-1
LIV(A) 2-1
EVE(A) 1-1
STK(A) 2-1
BOU(A) 0-0
AVL(A) 0-1

So pretty impressive stuff having never conceded more than 1 goal.  Yet to play Arsenal away but still good attacking sides are in there

Summary

We all know Agueros class and his world class ability and fantastic shooting stats.  The Newcastle game still showed that he can get the big hauls.  Reasonable per minute returns but very poor consistency and a consistent lack of minutes.  How many he will get here after so many games and 90 minutes midweek.  He’s also against the team thats conceded the least goals away

Kane (v Sunderland h)

Overall 21 games  11 goals 1 assists. FPL point every 18.3  mins. Consistency return rate (return in a game of a goal or assist) 8 returns from 21 games ie 38% which is poor. Pretty good shooting stats.   A regular 90 minuter.  Lack of rotation though could be effecting performances.  Will have pen duties.

Kane home games to date with the most recent at the bottom:

STK(H) 2-2 63 mins 2 pts
EVE(H) 0-0 90 mins 2 pts
CRY(H) 1-0 90 mins 2 pts
MCI(H) 4-1 90 mins 7 pts
LIV(H) 0-0 90 mins 2 pts
AVL(H) 3-1 90 mins 8 pts
WHU(H) 4-1 90 mins 13 pts
CHE(H) 0-0 90 mins 1 pts
NEW(H) 1-2 90 mins 2 pts
NOR(H) 3-0 90 mins 13 pts
LEI(H) 0-1 90 mins 2 pts

So only returned in 4 of the 11 games which is pretty shocking.  However against the 3 worst sides defensively arguably of Norwich, Newcastle and Villa he got good returns in 2 from 3.

The Sunderland defence

Overall 21 games 6 clean sheets and 20 goals conceded. I’ve ranked them the 19th best defence. Also 0 clean sheets in the last 6 and 12 goals conceded which is hopeless

Clean sheet prospects this week both I ranked them 19th.  The bookies also gave them no chance and ranked them 20th.

Away from home they are hopeless.  11 games 30 goals conceded (no one has conceded more) 1 clean sheet (only Norwich has less).  Underlying stats are no better.

Here’s their away record with the most recent games at the bottom:

LEI(A) 2-4
AVL(A) 2-2
BOU(A) 0-2
MUN(A) 0-3
WBA(A) 0-1
EVE(A) 2-6
CRY(A) 1-0
ARS(A) 1-3
CHE(A) 1-3
MCI(A) 1-4
SWA(A) 4-2

So it couldn’t be much worse.  18 goals conceded in the last 6 games away.

summary

Kane is a very inconsitent player but one who can score big against the lower teams.  He has reasonable shooting stats.  The worry is that Alli seems to consistently get ahead of him taking his space.  The main attraction here is not Kane though it’s the Sunderland defence which doesn’t seem to be showing any big Sam effect

The FFGeek choice

I’m going to stick with Kane.   He has the biggest poll lead and ownership and therefore could have the bigger negative impact if he scores big.  While both Aguero and Kane are inconsistent there’s no doubting Aguero’s world class ability to score any amount of goals against any team and thats the same for City.  However Aguero is also very inconsistent and a minutes risk.  The difference to me appears in the defence where Palace have conceded the least goals away Sunderland have conceded the most.

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