fantasy premier league captain picks GW27

Here’s our fantasy premier league captain picks for GW27. As ususal we look at the bookies odds, the other FPL sites polls and any of the top 10 FPL managers we follow. We also give some basic stats on the leading contenders and the defences they face plus the final FFGeek choice

fantasy premier league captain picks GW27

The fixtures:

The bookies odds

Here’s the anytime goal scoring odds from one bookie as of yesterday for £2.50 or below for £1 invested.  A very short list this week interestingly considering how good the fixtures are:

£1.95 – Vardy, Kane
£2.37 – Okazaki
£2.50 – Emineke, Costa, Ighalo, Mahrez

Payet is £2.80

The FPL advice Polls

So a reasonably clear winner again in Vardy

The ten top FPL managers

Of the 2 I know both are going for Vardy

Some basic stats

Vardy (Norwich H)

Vardy overall: Mins per FPL point 13.9. Consistency 20/26   returns  77%. In his last 6 games 35 points and returned a goal or assist in 4/6 games.  Vardy does have very good underlying stats both over the season and over the recent games.  Will have pens.

There are some theories about issues Leicester might have as a counter attacking team against teams that sit back.  At home he’s scored against Palace, Stoke and Watford who would look to defend to different degrees

Last 4 home (most recent at the bottom):

MCI(H) 0-0 90 minutes 2 points
BOU(H) 0-0 90 minutes 2 points
STK(H) 3-0 90 minutes 7 points
LIV(H) 2-0 90 minutes   13 points

The Norwich defence

Overall. I’ve rated the Norwich defence the worst in the league.  They have conceded 50 goals and only got 3 clean sheets which is the worst in the league equal with Sunderland.

Away from home they’ve conceded 30 goals in 13 games.  Only 2 teams have conceded more.  They’ve also had no clean sheets which is the worst in the league.  The underlying stats away from home are consistent with that position too.  The new addition of Klose at CB from the transfer window doesn’t seem to have helped.

last 6 games away for the defence most recent at the bottom:

WAT(A) 0-2
MUN(A) 2-1
TOT(A) 0-3
STK(A) 1-3
BOU(A) 0-3
AVL(A) 0-2

It’s hard to know how it could be much worse

Payet (Sunderland H)

Payet overall Mins per FPL point 14.7 Consistency 10/18 returns 56%. In his last 6 games 33 points and returns in 2/6 games.  No shooting stats but excellent season and recent creating chances stats.  He has set piece responsibility for West Ham although with Tomkins out, Reid a doubt and Carroll likely to be a sub the aerial ability is diluted.  Only 2 returns in the last 6 isn’t the best form either.

Here’s the last 4 home games with the most recent at the bottom:

EVE(H) 1-1   49 minutes   1 point
LIV(H) 2-0   27 minutes   1 point
MCI(H) 2-2 90 minutes   2 points
AVL(H) 2-0 90 minutes  3 points

Not particularly inspiring but 2 short games

The Sunderland defence

Overall. I’ve rated the Sunderland defence the 2nd worst in the league.  They have conceded 50 goals and only got 3 clean sheets which is the worst in the league equal with Norwich

Away from home they’ve conceded 36 goals in 13 games.  No team has conceded more.  They’ve also had 1 clean sheet which is the 2nd worst in the league.  The underlying stats aren’t great but not quite as bad as the actual stats.  Unlike Norwich the addition of Kone at least seems to have helped the defence

Last 6 games away for the Sunderland defence:

ARS(A) 1-3
CHE(A) 1-3
MCI(A) 1-4
SWA(A) 4-2
TOT(A) 1-4
LIV(A) 2-2

So again couldn’t be much worse.

Mahrez  (Norwich H)

Mahrez overall: Mins per FPL point 11.0. Consistency 15/25   returns  60%. In his last 6 games 31 points and returned a goal or assist in 3/6 games.  Mahrez does reasonably good underlying stats over the season but over recent games they have fallen away.  Has lost pen duties

Has got 2 assists in the 3 games at home against Watford, Stoke and Palace so not as effective as the teams who sit as Vardy has done.  However this is a very small sample size.

Last 4 home (most recent at the bottom):

MCI(H) 0-0 90 minutes    3 points
BOU(H) 0-0 90 minutes   1 point
STK(H) 3-0 90 minutes     6 points
LIV(H) 2-0 89 minutes     6 points

The Norwich defence

I’ve copied it from the Vardy post above

Overall. I’ve rated the Norwich defence the worst in the league.  They have conceded 50 goals and only got 3 clean sheets which is the worst in the league equal with Sunderland.

Away from home they’ve conceded 30 goals in 13 games.  Only 2 teams have conceded more.  They’ve also had no clean sheets which is the worst in the league.  The underlying stats away from home are consistent with that position too.  The new addition of Klose at CB from the transfer window doesn’t seem to have helped.

last 6 games away for the defence most recent at the bottom:

WAT(A) 0-2
MUN(A) 2-1
TOT(A) 0-3
STK(A) 1-3
BOU(A) 0-3
AVL(A) 0-2

It’s hard to know how it could be much worse

Summary

There alot to say for Vardy who has been the most consistent returner over the season. His recent form has also been good and he has pens.  He is also against the worst defence in the league.  

Payet has great creating chances stats and set pieces are important.  It’s just how much you think the lack of shooting stats will catch up with him. Against a team with pretty poor defensive stats but have shown some improvement with the new transfer window signings. 2/ returns in the last 6 could be better too. 

There’s no doubting what Mahrez has done this season.  Very consistent and able to score big.  His recent home form could be better and he’s lost pens.  It’s also whether you think the drop of underlying stats is relevant

The FFGeek choice

After that I’m sticking with Vardy

Good luck whoever you choose

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