fantasy premier league captain picks GW35

Here’s our fantasy premier league captain picks GW35. As ususal we look at the bookies odds, the other FPL sites polls and any of the top 10 FPL managers we follow plus the FFGeek choice. We also analyse the stats of the leading contenders. There’s also a summary to interpret the results

fantasy premier league captain picks GW35

The fixtures

The bookies odds

Here’s the anytime goal scoring odds from one bookie as of today for below £2.50 for £1 invested:

£1.70 – Kane, Aguero

£1.80 – Sturridge

£2.10 – Firmino

£2.20 – Pelle, Costa

£2.30 – Sanchez, Eriksen, Alli

£2.40 – Coutinho, Mahrez

£2. 45 – De Bruyne

The FPL advice Polls

Wow I don’t think I’ve ever seen it so split before when there’s 2 clear options.

The ten top FPL managers I follow

Only 1 has shown themselves and they went for Aguero but doesn’t currently have Kane so that could change.  So no help there

Some basic stats of the leading contenders

Aguero (Stoke h)

Here’s his overall stats for the season: 27 games 22 goals and 2 assists. Minutes per FPL point 12.7 mins. Consistency returns 14/27   52%. 10+ point scoring 5/26   19%. Last 6 games 46 points and returns in 4/6 games. Has pens.  Game against Madrid mid week in the UCL

Here’s his last 6 home games most recent at the bottom:

CRY(H) 4-0   84 minutes   16 points
LEI(H) 1-3     90 minutes   6   points
TOT(H) 1-2   90  minutes   2   points
AVL(H) 4-0   90  minutes   11  points
MUN(H) 0-1 90   minutes  2   points
WBA(H) 2-1  89   minutes  9   points

So returns in 4 of the last 6 home games and 46 points and the same as his last 6 overall.

The Stoke defence

Overall: 47 goals conceded. The 14th ranked in the league. 10 clean sheets the 11th equal ranked in the league.

Home : 25 goals conceded 13th ranked in league. 5 clean sheets 8th equal ranked

Here’s their last 6 away games most recent at the bottom:

LEI(A) 0-3
MUN(A) 0-3
BOU(A) 3-1
CHE(A) 1-1
WAT(A) 2-1
LIV(A) 1-4

Not great.  13 goals and 3 thrashings to top 4 challenging sides.  Nothing to play for now.

Kane (WBA h)

Here’s his overall stats for the season: 34 games 24 goals and 3 assists. Minutes per FPL point 15.1 mins. Consistency returns 17/34 50%. 10+ point scoring 8/34   24%. Last 6 games 58 points and returns in 5/6 games.

Here’s his last 6 home games

SUN(H) 4-1 87  minutes   10 points
WAT(H) 1-0 90  minutes 2  points
SWA(H) 2-1 83  minutes   2  points
ARS(H) 2-2 90  minutes   6 points
BOU(H) 3-0 90  minutes   16  points
MUN(H) 3-0 88  minutes 2 points

So 38 points well behind his overall total

WBA defence

Overall: 42 goals conceded the 8th ranked team. 11 clean sheets and 7th equal ranked clean sheet record

Away: 20 goals conceded. 7th ranked GC away. 6 clean sheets and 4th equal ranked clean sheets away

Here’s their last 6 away games most recent at the bottom:

NEW(A) 0-1
EVE(A) 1-0
LEI(A) 2-2
SUN(A) 0-0
MCI(A) 1-2
ARS(A) 0-2

So not too bad a record considering the opposition

Summary

Comparison Table

I find the table quite useful in deciding who’s the best option.

Gametime has to go with Kane.  Man City face Real Madrid in the midweek champions league game which immediately makes him a gametime risk.  Now Man City need the points to get a champions league place for next season with Man Utd and West Ham hunting them down.  So it’s seems likely he will start it’s just whether he gets withdrawn if Man City establish a commanding lead.

The bookies both have them at £1.70 as an anytime goal scorer so no seperation there

The FPL advice polls are as mixed as you would ever see in a battle between 2 players.  However the 1st site has the correlation between the top 10k which is a reasonable proxy for the active managers and it’s the site with the most traffic so I’ve given this to Aguero

Nothing to be gained from any of the top 10 FPL managers

Overall stats are very similar so not seperating them there.

Recent form is very interesting.  Kane on an overall basis has more points but Aguero has better recent home form than Kanes so I’m equalising it.

Opposition though does make WBA a much better away defence especially than Stoke.  Also recently Stoke have looked poor.  Stoke also have injuries to GK Butland (Given who was born before the queen was in goal last match) plus Johnson and Pieters suspended.

So it’s how you rate those factors in your decision

The FFGeek choice

Weighing everything up I’ve gone for Aguero

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