Here’s some fantasy premier league captain tips gameweek 38

Bale

He may have failed to return last week but he did everything right except score.  So there’s no loss of faith here.   There’s no gametime risk he will definitely play and Spurs have to win.

Lets look at his 2nd half record at home home against the lower teams

Newcastle – H 15 points

Fulham H – 2 points

Southampton H  – 11 points

He really does have the ability to score big and although he hasn’t returned in his last 2 it’s still 39 points in his last 5 and he still has great underlying stats. He doesn’t take pens but does take most of the free kick and corner set pieces.  He is playing centrally behind the striker giving him greater opportunities than on the flank.  Consistency of returns wise he’s returned in 11/15  games which is a 73% chance of returns.

What about Sunderland .  They’ve conceded 10 games in their last 6 games home and away and 15 goals conceded in their last 5 away games including 6 at Villa.

So after not returning in 2 despite good underlying stats and with Spurs desperate to win he’s a good bet for me.

Sturridge

The man of the moment and the biggest bandwagon of gameweek 38 after his hat trick last week away to Fulham.  His underlying stats have been excellent and positionally he is the main central focal point of the attack.

Lets look at his record at home for Liverpool against the lower teams

Norwich H – 6 points

Swansea H – 10 points

West Ham – 2 points

So good without making you fall over.  It’s interesting that the last 2 big scores have been away from home against Newcastle and Fulham.  Liverpool have scored more goals away from home than at home and that seems to be that they’re more comfortable counter attacking than breaking teams down in a structured attack.

Consistency wise he’s returned in 8/12 games which is 66% less than Bale.  It’s not certain who will take pens with Gerrard out and he doesn’t have any free kick or set piece duties which provide a fall back when things aren’t going well.

What about QPR?  It’s not that bad in terms of last 6 games 8 conceded. However away from home its a different story than at home.  In the last 5 away they’ve conceded 9  games which gives some hope that Liverpool will open them up.

I rate Sturridge as a solid captain choice

Michu

Fit again after Laudrup said he would be out for the season.  The seasons unexpected revelation.  He’s the 6th top points scoring midfielder and has consistently had the best shooting stats.

Lets look at his 2nd half home record against lower teams:

Aston Villa H – 2 points

Stoke H – 6 points

QPR H – 18 points

Newcastle – 3 points

Southampton – 3 points

So not particularly impressive.  It’s still only 14 points in his last 4.

As far as Fulham.  Its 13 goals in their last 6 games home and away which is one of the worst records in the league and 7 at home in their last 2.  However its only 5 goals conceded in their last 5 away games which is impressive and the disasters have been at home.

Despite the recent Fulham problems Michu’s not an option for me.

Summary

My best choices are

1.  Bale

2.  Sturridge

Others considered

RVP – always an option with pens and set pieces.  Will surely play.  WBA have had defensive issues with 3 goals scored by Wigan at home and Norwich of all people getting 4 last week.  I just think that Bale and Sturridge are better options

Man City –  Aguero is not sure to be starting and Tevez could be ripe for rotation which means gametime risks really make it difficult to work out who will start.

I hope that gives everyone food for thought for fantasy premier league captain tips gameweek 38