Background 

Just as a general point for those coming to the site for the first time.   I did alot of research on where the 10 point plus fantasy premier league attacking scores came from and the vast majority came from the top 4 challenging teams playing the potentially relegation threatened teams.  Now that may sound like common sense and it is how I look at where the captain choices should come from.   The theory is simple, you get more shots against the poorer teams.  What was interesting is that there wasn’t much variance between the home fixture and the away fixture.  The opposition was key.  However at the moment Suarez and Sturridge are breaking all the rules and is a form option irrespective of the opposition.

Here’s the best fixtures:

1. Arsenal v Sunderland

2. Man City v Stoke City

3.  Liverpool v Swansea

The picks for me from this are:   Dzeko, Suarez and Sturridge.  I’ve not picked anyone from the Arsenal game.  Giroud is my default pick and should start given Sanogo has played 2 games in 4 days but I’m unsure enough not to pick him.  As far as Man City goes Dzeko and maybe Jovetic are the only relative certain starters.

Dzeko (Stoke home)

• Will he start?

Should do as only came on as a sub against Bayern.

• How consistent is he generally  and at home?

Good:  Overall 7 goals 4 assists.    Consistency  8/21  38%  but if you only include games he started then its 7/12 or 58% which is reasonably good.  Returned in 4/6 games at home when started

• How has he performed against poor opposition so far at home

When started he’s returned in all 4 home games against Cardiff, Palace, Norwich and Newcastle

• Whats his recent form like

Good:  Returned in 3 out of 5 games. 2 of these games were from the subs bench.

• Whats his underlying stats like

Fantastic shooting stats but doesn’t create chances

• Whats the opposition defence like

Awful away from home:  Only Fulham and Norwich have conceded more goals away from home.  2 away clean sheets.  3 goals conceded at Arsenal, Spurs and Man Utd.  4 conceded at Everton

• Is he an option? 

Yes.

 Suarez and Sturridge

Lets face it against a Swansea team who have had a difficult Europa League tie against Napoli where they played a pretty much full team, Suarez and Sturridge are both options so lets look at the merits of both

Will they both start?

Yes no reason to think either will not start

How consistent returners are they overall and at home?

Suarez is  an 84 % returner overall.   Suarez has returned in every home game.

Sturridge is an 88% returner. Sturridge has returned in 7/9 home games

How have they performed at home against poor opposition?

Suarez  has returned in 8 home games against Villa, Hull, Cardiff, West Ham, Norwich, Fulham and WBA scoring 13 goals and 6 assists

Sturridge returned in 4 out of 5 home games against Villa, WBA, Palace and Stoke.  Not against Fulham.  In each game scoring 1 goal.

Whats their recent form like? 

Suarez has returned in 4 of his last 5 with 1 goal and 4 assists

Sturridge has returned in 5 of his last 5 with 6 goals and 2 assists

Whats their underlying stats like?

Shooting stats wise Suarez is marginally better overall thise season and on recent form despite the goal scoring differential.  Creating chances wise Suarez is streets ahead.  Suarez is generally had the highest average position although some times less centrally than Sturridge. The distinction has been a little more blurred recently.  Penalty area touches Suarez is miles ahead.  In recent games. despite the goal differential. The average position has been a little less clear but not to the extent of Suarez shunted wide as you may think.  Shots in the box are similar but penalty  box touches and chances created are miles in favour of Suarez

Whats the opposition defence like?

Good away from home.  Only Spurs. Chelsea. Southampton. Villa and West Ham have conceded less.  However the full defensive lineup played against Napoli on Thursday and Liverpool can carve open any defence.

Are they options?

Definitely

So who’s the best option?

There’s a lot of information above to take your own view.  It really comes down to whether you think the current form of Sturridge. which is better than Suarezs. is an indication of a shift change and puts Sturridge ahead of Suarez or not.  Is it a permanent shift or a temporary thing?  For me it’s still Suarez.  He has a better record at home against poor opposition and is the more complete player able to provide assists as well.  I personally think the recent form thing isn’t enough to turn me away.  Suarez is still getting in similar shots and more in 2 of the last 3 games.   He gets far more pen box touches as well.  Sturridge relies on getting behind the defence with early penatrative runs which is why I believe Suarezs game against teams that attempt to park the bus at home is better.

Summary:

Here are my captain options in order

1.  Suarez

2.  Sturridge

3.  Dzeko

William Hill check

Here’s how William Hill see the anytime goal scorer odds market with all players at under £2.00

1.  £1.40 – Aguero (injured)

2.  £1.50 – Negredo

3.  £1.57 –  Suarez

4.  £1.61 – Giroud Sturridge

5. £1.73 – Dzeko

6.  £1.91  – RVP.  Sanogo

So some interesting differences here.   Aguero is injured.  Negredo I’m unsure whether will play given he started against Barca.  Giroud is a little inconsistent for the armband for me, made worse by the fact that Sanogo has started the last 2 although I expect Giroud to start.  I’ve discounted RVP due to the Palace defensive record at home.

I hope that gives you some food for thought for your fantasy premier league captain choice.

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