Fantasy premier league – clean sheet analysis GW10

Here’s my analysis of the potential clean sheets for fantasy premier league GW10

Context and background

Lets firstly look at the number of clean sheets so far:

GW1 – 7

GW2 – 9

GW3 – 9

GW4 – 7

GW5 – 6

GW6 – 3

GW7 – 5

GW8 – 4

GW9 – 8

Thats 6.4 clean sheets per round.  57% have been home clean sheets

Here’s the group of teams that I think your defence should come from

1.  Spurs

2.  Southampton

3.  Chelsea

4.  West Ham

5.  Arsenal

6.  Liverpool

7.  Man City

This group of 7 who have given you 28 clean sheets at 3.5 clean sheets per round.  So with those 7 your GK and 3 defenders should have at least got 3 clean sheets per gameweek although it would have been a fairly pricey defence

GW10

I’m going to follow last weeks format and take the William Hill odds of a clean sheet under £3.00 and give my view on the likelihood they will happen.

Man City home to Norwich (£1.75)

The Man City defence has been fairly hit and miss this year but problems have been mainly focused away from home.  Overall I’ve rated them the 9th best defence.  At home its a different story though, only 2 goals conceded and 2 clean sheets in 4 games.  Easily the best underlying stats as well.  No Kompany apparently which is a negative.

For the Norwich attack it’s only 2 goals in 4 games away from home and if not the worst underlying stats pretty close to it.

Verdict:  City clean sheet

WBA home to Palace (£2.20)

The WBA defence has had its moments this year with the 5th best defence overall in my mind.  At home they’ve been very good , if a little unlucky.  It’s 4 goals conceded in 4 games and 1 clean sheet but only City have better underlying stats

Its 2 goals in 4 away games for Palace and towards the bottom ranked underlying stats

Verdict:  WBA clean sheet 

Chelsea away to Newcastle (£2.30)

I’ve rated Chelsea the 3rd best defence with 6 goals conceded in 9 games and 3 clean sheets.  Away from home its 3 goals conceded in 4 games and 1 clean sheet and high ranking underlying stats.

For Newcastle it 5 goals in 4 games and lower 3rd underlying stats.

Chelsea are less likely to be affected by the Capital One Cup than Newcastle who had closer to a first team and played later in the week.  With Remy they are more of a threat.

Verdict no clean sheet

Man Utd away to Fulham (£2.37)

If you concede 2 goals home to Stoke and make them look like a constant threat then you know your defence has got problems.  Vidic should be back at least.  7 goals conceded in 4 games and no clean sheets. Its not great reading.

4 goals in 4 games for Fulham and near the worst underlying stats.

Its a matter of who is the less hopeless and I can probably see Fulham getting 1 in this

Verdict no clean sheet

Hull home to Sunderland (£2.50)

For the Hull defence, I’ve ranked them the 10 best overall defence and certainly they’ve shown that in most games.  Only 1 goal conceded in 4 home games and up there with the best in underlying stats

Sunderland its 2 goals scored in 4 away games and poor underlying stats.  Fletcher back gives them more goal threat.

I think Hull will dig in for a clean sheet

Verdict:  Hull clean sheet £2.50

Southampton away to Stoke (£2.62)

The 2nd best overall defence in my view is the Southampton defence with an incredible 6 clean sheets.  Although it’s only 2 goals conceded away from home and 2 clean sheets they’ve really struggled on the underlying stats and are only mid table away from home.

2 goals in 4 games at home for Stoke and really poor underlying stats.  I personally think the United game was a mirage and they will struggle to score

verdict:  Southampton clean sheet

Swansea away to Cardiff (£2.75)

Only 3 goals conceded in 4 games away with 2 clean sheets Swanseas underlying stats are among the best away from home.  Williams is also back.

4 goals in 4 games scored for Cardiff at home with 3 in the game against City.  They really look poor going forward.

verdict:  Swansea clean sheet 

West Ham home to Villa

West Ham at home haven’t been that impressive defensively with 7 goals conceded and a mid table position in underlying stats.

5 goals in 4 games away from home for Villa after their 3 against Arsenal in the opening game.  Benteke back makes such a difference.

Verdict:  no clean sheet

Thats it.  Hope it helps with your defence decisions

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