Here’s my look at all the fantasy premier league gameweek 4 matches to see where the potential clean sheets are
I’ve gone through all the games and given a basic stats analysis and then a verdict on whether I think there will be a clean sheet. If you cant be bothered with all that there’s a summary at the end of what I think will be the clean sheets and the ranking of their likelihood. I’ve also added the William Hill odds of a clean sheet and ranked all of them under£3.00 for a clean sheet in order as a comparison and a sense check.
Man Utd v Crystal Palace
Man Utd clean sheet:
Man Utd defence: 2 goals conceded in first 3 games and 1 clean sheet. Underlying stats are ok just a little above mid point but had tricky fixtures
Crystal Palace attack: 4 goals in 3 games but bottom quarter underlying stats.
Crystal Palace clean sheet:
Crystal Palace defence: 4 goals conceded in their first 3 games and no clean sheet.
Man Utd attack: 4 goals in 3 games although last 2 were blanks against good defence. No Rooney for creativity. Underlying stats are top third.
Verdict: Utd clean sheet
Utd will be good enough for a clean sheet I feel against a pretty ordinary attack
William Hill Verdct: Man U £1.75 Palace £9.00
Aston Villa v Newcastle
Aston Villa clean sheet:
Aston Villa defence: 2 goals conceded in first 3 games and 1 clean sheet. Underlying stats though are excellent and they’ve defended very well to date
Newcastle attack: 1 goal in 3 games and pretty good underlying stats.
Newcastle clean sheet:
Newcastle defence: 4 goals conceded in their first 3 difficult games but 2 clean sheets although against 2 ordinary away attacking teams. Underlying stats ordinary
Aston Villa attack: 4 goals in 3 games all against very good defences. Underlying stats aren’t that great but context is needed
Verdict: Villa clean sheet
The Villa defence has looked very good especially considering the opposition and the Newcastle attack pretty ordinary
William Hill verdict: Villa £2.87 Newcastle £4.00
Fulham v WBA
Fulham clean sheet:
Fulham defence: 4 goals conceded in first 3 games and 1 clean sheet. Underlying stats though are the worst of anyone and looked terrible against Arsenal
WBA attack: 0 goals in 3 games and terrible underlying stats. Not sure Sessegnon and Anichebe will help
WBA clean sheet:
WBA defence: 3 goals conceded in their first 3 games and 1 clean sheets although against 2 ordinary away attacking teams. Underlying stats ordinary and bottom quarter
Fulham attack: 2 goals in 3 games and underlying ok stats but were terrible against Newcastle.
Verdict: no clean sheet
Difficult one this. Hard to know if they will be too bad to score or too hopeless to stop scoring
William Hill verdict: Fulham £2.70 WBA £4.00
Hull v Cardiff
Hull clean sheet:
Hull defence: 4 goals conceded in first 3 games and 1 clean sheet. Underlying stats are bottom third. Have played at City and at Chelsea though
Cardiff attack: 3 goals in 3 games and pretty ordinary underlying stats. Have only scored in the City game but West Ham and Everton are looking solid so far
Cardiff clean sheet:
Cardiff defence: 4 goals conceded in their first 3 games and 1 clean sheet. Underlying stats though have been near the worst
Hull attack: 1 goals in 3 games and underlying stats terrible but again away to City and Chelsea
Verdict: Hull clean sheet
I think Hull will hold firm and nick one
William Hill verdict: Hull £2.60 Cardiff £3.10
Stoke City v Man City
Stoke clean sheet:
Stoke defence: 2 goals conceded in first 3 games and 1 clean sheet. Underlying stats are bottom quarter though despite only Liverpool being a strong attacking team.
Man City attack: 8 goals in 3 games and the best underlying stats. look an attacking force with Negredo in the team. Silva doubt may not be that much of an issue as Nasri has looked adequate cover
Man City clean sheet:
Man City defence: 3 goals conceded in their first 3 games and 2 clean sheets. Underlying stats are good but they have looked so shaky in the last 2 without Kompany
Stoke attack: 3 goals in 3 games and underlying stats are ok considering 2 tricky games
Verdict: No clean sheet
City will definitely score and I think given Citys struggles with Hull and Cardiff that Stoke will score. Probably from a set piece or corner
William Hill verdict: Stoke £5.00 Man City £2.15
Sunderland v Arsenal
Sunderland clean sheet:
Sunderland defence: 5 goals conceded in first 3 games and 0 clean sheet. Underlying stats are middle of the table but against Fulham, Palace and Southampton
Arsenal attack: 5 goals in 3 games and very good underlying stats. Will be boosted by the purchase of Ozil
Arsenal clean sheet:
Arsenal defence: 4 goals conceded in their first 3 games and 1 clean sheet. Underlying stats are good considering the nightmare of the opening game against Villa. Assisted by the purchase of Flamini who will give the back 4 more protection through tackling agression and organisation from midfield
Sunderland attack: 2 goals in 3 games and poor underlying stats
Verdict: Arsenal clean sheet
The Sunderland attack couldn’t score against the Fulham defence. Need I say more. Arsenal will definitely score
William Hill Verdict: Sunderland £5.00 Arsenal £2.25
Spurs v Norwich
Spurs clean sheet:
Spurs defence: 1 goals conceded in first 3 games and 2 clean sheets. Underlying stats are very good. They are looking strong
Norwich attack: 3 goals in 3 games and ok underlying stats.
Norwich clean sheet:
Norwich defence: 3 goals conceded in their first 3 games and 1 clean sheet. Underlying stats are poor though
Spurs attack: 2 goals in 3 games both pens. Underlying stats are ok. Have added Lamela and Eriksen to boost their goal scoring and creativity
Verdict: Spurs clean sheet
The Spurs defence has been strong and the Norwich attack poor.
William Hill verdict: Spurs £2.05 Norwich £6.00
Everton v Chelsea
Everton clean sheet:
Everton defence: 2 goals conceded in first 3 games and 2 clean sheets. Underlying stats are very good. They are looking defensively solid surprisingly
Chelsea attack: 4 goals in 3 games and top 3rd underlying stats. Eto’o should solve the striking issue (although he could have with Lukaku in my mind)
Chelsea clean sheet:
Chelsea defence: 1 goal conceded in their first 3 games and 2 clean sheets. Underlying stats are good
Everton attack: 2 goals in 3 games Underlying stats are good though. Lukaku is ineligible
Verdict: Chelsea clean sheet
The Chelsea defence will be too strong for the Jelavic/Kone led attack.
William Hill verdict: Everton £3.50 Chelsea £2.80
Southampton v West Ham
Southampton Clean sheet
Southampton defence: 2 goals conceded in first 3 games and 1 clean sheets. Underlying stats are mid tableish. I’m still a believer in their defence although his dropping of Shaw and Clyne is a bit of a mystery.
West Ham attack: 2 goals in 3 games and bottom 3rd underlying stats. Petric should improve them if he starts
West Ham clean sheet:
West Ham defence: 1 goal conceded in their first 3 games and 2 clean sheets. Underlying stats are good
Southampton attack : 2 goals in 3 games. 1 a pen. Underlying stats are lower mid table. Osvaldo should strengthen the attack
Verdict: Southampton clean sheet
I think the Saints defence will hold the West ham attack which is poor without Carroll.
William Hill verdict: Saints £2.30 West Ham £4.20
Swansea v Liverpool
Swansea Clean sheet
Swansea defence: 5 goals conceded in first 3 games and 1 clean sheet. Underlying stats are very poor but have had 2 difficult matches against United and Spurs.
Liverpool attack: 3 goals in 3 games and top 3rd underlying stats. Have struggled in patches but showed what the could do at home to stoke when the score could have been anything but they just didn’t finish
Liverpool clean sheet:
Liverpool defence: 0 goals conceded in their first 3 games and 3 clean sheets. Underlying stats are only mid table though which shows how they lost control of games. United also pressed hard and had lots of shots. Injuries to Johnson and Sakho may start
Swansea attack : 3 goals in 3 games. Underlying stats are mid table. 2 games against strong defensive teams
Verdict: no clean sheets
I think both sides have attacks that will pierce defences that have some improvement. Liverpool’s underlying stats will catch up with them.
William Hill verdict: Swansea £3.75 Liverpool £2.80
Summary
Here’s my clean sheets and the order of likelihood:
Man Utd
Spurs
Arsenal
Chelsea
Southampton
Villa
Hull
Here’s the William Hill odds under £3.00 to win
Man Utd – £1.75
Spurs – £2.05
Man City – £2.15
Arsenal – £2.25
Southampton – £2.30
Hull – £2.60
Fulham – £2.70
Chelsea – £2.80
Liverpool – £2.80
Villa – £2.87
The main difference seems to be my faith in the Chelsea defence compared to William Hill and William Hills faith in the City defence compared to mine
That’s it. hope it helped you in selecting your fantasy premier league defence this week
Follow us on twitter @fantasyfoot20 or facebook at www.facebook.com/fantasyfootballgeek.co.uk
Fox Sports EPL fantasy: League name: fantasyfootballgeek League access code: (10513-1773)
William Hill odds are as of Friday 13th morning when I did this post