Fantasy premier league – clean sheet analysis GW12

Fantasy Premier League

Here’s my analysis of the potential clean sheets for fantasy premier league GW12

Fantasy premier league – clean sheet analysis GW12

Context and background

Lets firstly look at the number of clean sheets so far:

GW1 – 7

GW2 – 9

GW3 – 9

GW4 – 7

GW5 – 6

GW6 – 3

GW7 – 5

GW8 – 4

GW9 – 8

GW10 – 10

GW11 – 7

Thats 6.8 clean sheets per fantasy premier league gameweek.  46/75 (61%) have been home clean sheets

Here’s the group of fantasy premier league teams that I think your defence should come from

1.  Spurs

2.  Southampton

3.  Chelsea

4.  West Ham

5.  Arsenal

6.  Liverpool

7.  Man City

This group of 7 who have given you 33 clean sheets at 3.o clean sheets per round.  So with those 7 being your GK and 5 defenders, hopefully you would  have at least got 3 clean sheets per gameweek although it would have been a fairly pricey defence.  Only 1 of the 7  clean sheets last week came from this group so a bad week.

GW12

I’m going to continue to follow the recent format and take the William Hill odds of a clean sheet under £3.00 and give my view on the likelihood they will happen.

Last week out of the 8 potential clean sheets under £3.00 by William Hill only 3 got clean sheets.  I  predicted 4 right and got 4 wrong which is a bad week.  A bumper week this week with 9 potential clean sheets to look at under £3.00

Hull home to Crystal Palace (£2.15)

I’ve rated the Hull defence 10th best overall.  Hull may have the odd slip up away but at home its a different story.  Incredibly they’ve only conceded 1 goal at home and that was to Cardiff of all people.  Plus better underlying stats defensively at home than Arsenal or Chelsea.

Palace have only scored 2 goals away in 5 games.  They with Sunderland and Norwich have the worst away goal record.  Underlying attacking stats are consistent with this position

Verdict:  Hull clean sheet

Man Utd away to Cardiff (£2.25)

Man Utd have had a terrible defensive record this season.  Last week was the first clean sheet in 7.  They’ve conceded 8 goals in 5 games away with no clean sheets.  This is consistent with their underlying defensive stats.

Cardiff have only scored 5 goals in 5 games at home.  3 of those in the GW2 spectacular against Man City.  They’ve blanked twice against Everton and Tottenham.  underlying stats are the worst attacking home stats of any team

I think United will hold out here for a clean sheet

Verdict:   Man Utd clean sheet 

Arsenal home to Southampton (£2.30)

I’ve rated Arsenal the 7th best overall defence.  At home it’s 5 games and 5 goals conceded but 3 of these were in the opening game of the season.  The other 2 were sloppy goals when the game was done and dusted.  The underlying defensive stats are  better than the goals conceded

Southampton have yet to score more than a goal away but have only blanked once.  The underlying attacking stats are better than this but still nothing to write home about.  How far has the thrashing of Hull turned a corner.  The Lambert/Osvaldo issue may cause some uncertainty as well.

I think Saints will score given the attacking improvements steadily being made

Verdict:  No clean sheet

Stoke home to Sunderland (£2.30)

Overall I may have only rated the Stoke defence 14th but there’s a huge home and away difference.  In 5 games at home they’ve only conceded 3 goals and got  2 clean sheets.  Underlying defensive stats are only bettered by Man City.

Its only 2 goals in 5 games away for Sunderland.  Only Norwich and Fulham have worse underlying attacking stats.  Poyet will improve them defensively.  Whether he will attacking wise remains to be seen

Verdict Stoke clean sheet

Chelsea away to West Ham (£2.30)

Chelsea defensively away have not been great.  Only 1 clean sheet.  Amazingly, the impressive defensive performance at United. Up until the Newcastle match they hadn’t conceded more than 1 away from home.

West Ham have scored 5 goals at home in 5 games at home.  Only Hull, Palace and Stoke have scored less at home.  They’ve blanked twice in those 5 games to Stoke and Villa surprisingly.  They have scored against Everton and Man City.  Overall it’s only 1 goal in their last 3 games. The 4-6-0 formation seems to have caused them more scoring issues (surprisingly!)

I think the game will be frantic and West Ham will score once

Verdict:  No clean sheet  

Man City at home to Spurs (£2.50)

Another side with a huge defensive difference home and away.  City have only conceded 2 goals at home.  Only Hull have conceded less.  They however have the best underlying defensive stats at home.

Spurs have only scored 4 goals away.  Only Sunderland, Norwich and Palace have scored less.  Underlying attacking stats are far better and they have the quality to score.  Just new faces needing adjustment.

Still I think the City defence will hold out

verdict: Clean sheet for City

Newcastle home to Norwich (£2.62)

5 goals conceded in 5 games at home but 3 were against Hull amazingly.  Underlying defensive stats don’t paint such a rosy picture though and show a worse position.

As you would have heard earlier Norwich have scored only 2 goals in 5 away games.  No one has scored less.  Palace and Sunderland are the other 2 who have only scored 2.  To make it worse, only Fulham have poorer underlying attacking stats

verdict:  Newcastle clean sheet

WBA home to Villa (£2.75)

4 goals conceded in 5 games at home and 2 clean sheets.  Only Stoke and Man City have better underlying home defensive stats.

Villa after 3 in the opening day away to Arsenal have only scored 2 further away from home.  Underlying attacking stats aren’t too much better. However Benteke has been threatening to break his duck and this will be a frantic local derby.

Verdict:  no clean sheet

Swansea away to Fulham (£2.80)

Only 4 goals conceded in 5 games away with 2 clean sheets.  That’s in the top 5 goals conceded away from home.Failed in their last 2 away though.  Underlying defensive stats back up the fact that they are one of the best teams defensively away from home.

Fulham have scored 5 goals in 5 games on their own ground.  Only Palace Hull and Stoke have scored less goals at home.  However they have never failed to score at home.  Only Palace and Cardiff have worse underlying stats though.

I think Swansea will keep a clean sheet.

verdict:  Swansea clean sheet 

Thats it.  Hope it helps with your fantasy premier league defence decisions

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William Hill odds are as of the 18 November in the morning BST

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