With City having a DGW this week away to Liverpool and home to Sunderland the Aguero/Dzeko situation is taking a lot of focus. Here’s a few thoughts on the fantasy premier league DGW 34 Aguero situation so far this week which may help you decide on how you want to go forward. I’ve also gone into how it may affect Dzeko. It’s very early in the week and there will undoubtedly be lots of information coming later. However here’s some thoughts so far. The crucial point though will be the Friday press conference.
Lets remind ourselves of how good he is
Points per game: Suarez 9.8 PPG, Aguero 7.7 PPG, Sturridge 7.2 PPG
Minutes per fantasy premier league point: Suarez 9.2 minutes, Aguero 9.1 minutes, Sturridge 11.15 minutes
Consistency of returning a goal or assist: Suarez goal or assist in 24 of 28 games (86%), Aguero 13/17 (76%)
% of FPL point hauls of 10 +: Suarez 12/28 (43%) Aguero 6/17 (36%)
So in essence we have someone who on a per minute basis has returns very slightly better than Suarez and compares well in other stats. He’s ahead of Sturridge.
So we maybe taking gametime risk but we are taking it for someone of the highest quality
What are Pellegrini and Aguero been saying?
Aguero last week:
“With this recovery I am trying to do my best to be able to play again, but I cannot do it in a hurry.
“I do think to myself if something happens now, I will lose the rest of the Premier League season and the World Cup.”
Pellegrini before the Southampton game:
“We hope, with one week more working, he will be perfect to play against Liverpool.
“Sergio is very important for us in every game.
“It is a pity he can’t arrive 100 per cent now for Southampton because, I repeat, we are not thinking about Liverpool (yet), we are thinking about Southampton.
“But of course he will be very useful for us because he is a top player and he makes a difference.
“Sergio has been very unlucky this season with his injuries, but I hope from now until the end of the season he will play regularly without any problem.”
Aguero this weekend:
“First of all, I want to finish this season well with City and to be in good physical shape for Brazil,” he said.
“Basically, I want to win everything.
The quotes emphasise the importnace of the World Cup to Aguero. He would have seen Falcao, Walcott and today Rodriguez get injuries that have ruled them out of the World Cup in Brazil. He’s only 25 so has another chance but it is obviously the most important thing to him. He won’t be taking any chances. Pellegrini’s quote show the importance of him to the team
Fantasy premier league DGW 34 gametime is the key
Only Pellegrini knows what part Aguero will play in the DGW34 games. We can all have a load of theories but only he knows what will happen. Assuming Agueros fitness goes to plan, I personally think he will start against Liverpool. I think the game is too important for him not to start. The real question is the 2nd game at home to Sunderland. A game they shouldn’t need Aguero to play in to win. They also play WBA at home on the following Monday. City have shown they can win games against lesser opposition at home without Aguero. Therefore I see it’s hard to see him starting all 3 games in a little over a week. I can’t see him not being on the bench for 1 game. It’s just whether thats againt Sunderland or WBA. All is not lost in that situation. He is dangerous off the bench though. We all remember his goal and an assist in 29 minutes coming off the bench against Cardiff.
Personally I think the gametime issue is more about him as a captain option. With good fixtures and 2 DGWs I find him essential it’s just whether the gametime risk rules him out as a captain option. If I think he’s essential then I may as well buy him now.
The formation and Dzeko
Pellegrini has started playing 1 striker with Silva behind rather than 2 strikers as he has favoured over the years. That maybe some pragmatism and a desire to dominate the midfield. It could however be a comment on his views of Negredo (who’s been struggling lately) and Jovetic rather than a permanent change of view on formation. Unfortunately until Aguero returns we won’t know the answer.
Dzeko offers a rather static focal point in the lone striker system whereas Aguero tends to drop off. Does Aguero work as well in the lone striker system and is Aguero better with a strike partner like Dzeko. Liverpool play 2 strikers so he could match up on that front.
To add to the complications, Silva is playing with an ankle injury which necessitates a couple of days rest each week. Silva will definitely play against Liverpool. Either behind a lone striker or on the left tucking in with 2 strikers. That does give a possible rotation scenario of: Silva plays against Liverpool but not against Sunderland. Either with Aguero as a lone striker or with 2 strikers.
Pellegrini then plays Dzeko and Aguero against Sunderland with Silva rested. Aguero is on the bench against WBA with Silva behind Dzeko. Dzeko potentially plays all 3 games unless rotated with the misfiring Negredo. Aguero and Silva play 2.
At the moment given the uncertainty around all 3 players then if I had Dzeko I would probably stick with Dzeko. If I didn’t I would buy Aguero but it all depends on more info during the week and the Friday press conference.
Final thoughts
My own view is that Aguero is essential given 2 DGWs and a good fixture list. He’s just too good not to have. Whether he is a captain or not is another question.
Dzeko totally depends on whether Pellegrini plays 2 strikers rather than 1. He should play a minimum of 1 game even in that scenario as I cant see Aguero playing 3 games. If Pellegrini reverts to his historic favourite of 2 strikers then he could potentially play all 3.
Unfortunately there’s no way of predicting whats going to happen. Every scenario will involve some risk.
I hope anyway that the above thoughts give you some ideas on how to proceed.
Summary of key points
- Aguero’s returns are nearly on a par with Suarez
- Recent quotes emphasise the importance of the world cup to Aguero
- Hard to see Aguero starting all 3 games in a week. Uncertainty affects his captain potential.
- No clue as to whether Pellegrini will play 1 or 2 strikers. Playing 1 will diminish Dzekos gametime.
- Silva playing with injury may diminish his time available to play behind the striker. Enhances 2 striker prospects
Follow us on twitter @fantasyfoot20 or facebook at www.facebook.com/fantasyfootballgeek.co.uk
Fox Sports EPL fantasy: League name: fantasyfootballgeek League access code: (10513-1773)
