Here’s our fantasy premier league captain choice DGW34 article where we look at a number of ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. As usual we look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls and the FFGeek choice.
fantasy premier league DGW34 captain choice
This article will be slightly different than others as I’m making the bold assumption that the captain will come from one of the double gameweek teams. So only players from the 3 double gameweek teams will be considered. Our team focus articles for the 3 teams of Crystal Palace, Middlesborough and Man Utd can be found with the links just shown. The article also assumes that Ibrahimovic is injured and unable to play in DGW34
The fixtures
Here’s the fixtures for DGW34:
Here’s the 3 double gameweek teams with their odds to win with £1 invested:
Man Utd (Burnley A and Man City A) – £1.70 and £4.33
C Palace (Liverpool A and Spurs H) – £7.00 and £5.00
Middlesborough (Bournemouth A and Sunderland H) – £4.50 and £2.10
So Man Utd probably have the best odds to win marginally over Middlesborough
The Bookies Odds
Here we look at one of the bookies anytime goal scoring odds for the attacking players within the double gameweek teams. I’ve tried to only put players in who have some gametime security. It’s the return for £1 invested. Odds are as of Friday afternoon and remember they assume the player starts and don’t count assist potential. I’ve put a table together and added the 2 odds together with the lowest first
So Negredo by the slimiest of margins although that assumes that Rashford starts both games which is probably less certain that Negredo starting both. The clean sheets rank well. However in Middlesborough and Man Utd the defenders with gametime security have little attacking potential
The FPL advice site polls
It’s worth noting here that the FFGeek poll asks who you are going to appoint as captain to reflect the reality of the spread of captain choices. Others ask who is the best captain. Others just say captain poll and leave the question up to you.
This week it’s only the Polls that have been reset post the Ibrahimovic injury
Firstly here’s the FFGeek poll. Not many votes as it was only reset this morning.
Here’s the summary of the other main advice polls. Unfortunately not all have reset after the Ibrahimovic injury so there’s only 3 live including the FFGeek Poll.
It’s worth noting that site 1 is the site with the most traffic
So relatively close between Rashford and Negredo
Player Stats
Here’s some basic stats on the 4 top players in the bookies odds.
So not much in it. Certainly not very impressive stats by anyone. I guess you would say that Benteke slightly edges it
Squawka comparison
Here’s the underlying stats comparison for the season:
So Benteke has the advantage in the key stat of shots in the box but is badly let down by accuracy. Negredo has less shots but is more accurate. Rashford is behind both of them
Negredo against the lower placed teams
Here’s his scores home and away against the lowest placed sides:
Pretty good on the whole. Returns in 4/7.
Benteke against the top 7
So pretty disappointing. 2 returning games in 7.
Rashford away to the top 6
There’s no comparable team to Burnley at home so I’ve limited the stats to the top teams away to compare to City
So not great although limited data and data pretty unfair to him
FFGEEK CHOICE AND SUMMARY
So just summarising the different aspects firstly.
The bookies narrowly favour Negredo over Rashford but they are effectively the same.
The FPL advice site polls vary and again not too much between Negredo and Rashford
There’s not much in the basic stats. Benteke probably edges it. None are great.
Underlying stats via Squawka narrowly go for Benteke with Negredo then Rashford next
The records against similar sides favour Nregredo over Benteke markedly. Rashford has little data and unfairly compared when I haven’t tried to get Burnley comparables.
Gametime wise Benteke is the safest and will play 90 minutes in both games. Negredo should but Agnew has shown himself to be a little unpredictable in his early days. Rashford is a risk given he played 120 minutes yesterday and has played the last 3. There are also Martial and Rooney in the wings.
Negredo has a big advantage of pens. Negredo is also playing 2 of the worst defences in the division. If not the 2 worst apart from maybe Swansea.
Negredo has had the plus also of Karanka being sacked who was a very defensive manager. You have to bear that in mind when assessing historic stats. His recent stats (albeit they have had good fixtures, are much better). Benteke has had the advantage of confidence through Big Sam and a manager who likes direct football but he’s also focused on defence as well.
I’m going to leave my transfer to tomorrow but at the moment I’m going for Negredo. I don’t want to wake up and see that Luke Shaw was right and Ibrahimovic is fine after I’ve sold him. I see there’s a further story in the express saying the ibrahimovic injury is season ending for what this is worth. In any case I’m going to wait and write the articles tomorrow morning
It’s worth mentioning as an aside that Man Utd play Swansea next whereas Middlesbboro play Man City (Negredo’s old club) so if you are doing a transfer Rashford gives you that advantage. Assuming he plays
Good luck whoever you choose
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