fantasy premier league expected goals – totals to GW16

Here’s our look at some fantasy premier league expected goals totals to GW16. We look at team stats and individual players by position stats

FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE EXPECTED GOALS – TOTALS TO GW16

Here’s our fantasy premier league underlying stats review where we look at expected goals (xG) at a team and at an attacking player level to see what insights we can get for future player selection. We also look at expected assists (xA) at a player level.

Expected goals is a stat where the probability is evaluated that any given shot will end up as a goal.

Expected goals are based on a number of factors, such as where the shot was taken from and where the opposition defenders are at the time. The shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability in the league. To state the obvious , a shot from inside the 6 yard box in front of goal with no defenders around will have a very high probability it will end up as a goal.

In essence it shows you what should have happened rather than what has happened. Remember though we are only 6 games in so it’s difficult to make any accurate predictions from such limited data

The expected goals are now all wholly from the excellent site understat.com

I’m not going to look at them from a regression basis and compare them to goals and assists. While it can be useful with some players to look at over and under performance against the underlying stats, some players will perform way above or below the expected goals. Kane was a great example last season. If you expected regression you would never have got it as he was a lethal finisher. They should just be looked at as a way of evaluating a team or players goal or assist potential.




TEAM DEFENCE XG

I’ve provided the xG conceded as a whole ranked by the least to the most. The teams have then been ranked home and away but without me giving the xG conceded for the home and away stats so it’s easier to follow.

xG for attack has been done in the same way

At the moment I’m just presenting data. There will be interpretation of it in the player rankings articles later.  If you want to see how good the fixtures of these players see our fixture ease article or you can see who the top 10 FPL managers I follow have in their team

Ovr Rank Team xGA  Overall Home rank Away Rank
1 Manchester City 9.56 3 1
2 Tottenham 11.46 2 3
3 Chelsea 13.31 7 2
4 Arsenal 17.32 8 7
5 Liverpool 18.17 1 18
6 Southampton 18.42 5 14
7 WBA 18.92 14 4
8 Manchester United 18.98 4 15
9 Leicester 19.71 13 8
10 Brighton 19.91 16 5
11 Burnley 20.18 6 16
12 Newcastle United 20.64 12 10
13 Swansea 21.33 15 11
14 Bournemouth 21.46 17 9
15 Everton 22.70 18 13
16 Watford 22.76 20 6
17 Huddersfield 23.07 11 17
18 Crystal Palace 23.34 9 19
19 Stoke 23.78 19 12
20 West Ham 26.03 10 20

Team attack xG

Ovr Rank Team xG Overall Home rank Away Rank
1 Manchester City 40.93 1 1
2 Arsenal 33.95 2 6
3 Liverpool 31.84 4 2
4 Manchester United 29.78 3 4
5 Tottenham 24.33 8 3
6 Chelsea 20.9 5 7
7 Watford 20.48 13 5
8 Southampton 19.18 7 11
9 Leicester 19.17 10 8
10 Crystal Palace 18.7 6 12
11 Everton 17.08 9 13
12 Newcastle United 15.87 15 10
13 Stoke 15.67 11 15
14 West Ham 13.59 19 9
15 WBA 13.34 12 19
16 Brighton 12.03 17 14
17 Swansea 11.8 14 20
18 Bournemouth 11.78 16 18
19 Burnley 10.76 18 17
20 Huddersfield 9.85 20 16

PLAYER XG AND XA BY POSITION PER 90 MINUTES PLAYED

I’ve made an arbitrary decision that the player must have played 500 minutes to be considered. The stats have not been filtered for gametime security and fitness. That will happen in the player rankings later. The player values are as of Tuesday 5th December.

DEFENDER XG 90 RANKING

Rank Defender Club Price xG 90 xA 90
1 Matip Liverpool 5.5 0.17 0.04
2 Baines Everton 5.7 0.16 0.11
3 Yoshida Southampton 4.9 0.15 0.06
4 Otamendi Man City 5.8 0.15 0.01
5 Clark Newcastle 4.5 0.13 0.05
6 Bailly Man Utd 6.1 0.13 0.03
7 Dann C Palace 4.7 0.11 0.02
8 Britos Watford 4.4 0.11 0.11
9 Kolasinac Arsenal 6.2 0.11 0.24
10 Alonso Chelsea 6.9 0.11 0.03

Defender xA 90 Ranking

Rank Defender Club Price £ xG 90 xA 90
1 Trippier Spurs 5.6 0.01 0.27
2 Kolasinac Arsenal 6.2 0.11 0.24
3 Holebas Watford 4.9 0.02 0.20
4 Walker Man City 6.7 0.01 0.20
5 Kenney Everton 4.3 0.02 0.19
6 Davies Spurs 5.6 0.09 0.19
7 Azpilicueta Chelsea 6.9 0.04 0.17
8 Van Dijk Southampton 5.4 0.08 0.16
9 Milner Liverpool 6.1 0.10 0.15
10 Moses Chelsea 6.4 0.08 0.15

A few players who didn’t make the cut (xG90 and xA90):

Valencia 0.02 and 0.03

Daniels 0.01 and 0.07

MIDFIELDER XG 90 RANKING

Rank Midfielder Club Price £ xG 90 xA 90
1 Salah Liverpool 9.9 0.72 0.22
2 Sanchez Arsenal 11.8 0.61 0.39
3 Sterling Man City 8.3 0.57 0.33
4 Pogba Man Utd 8.0 0.48 0.27
5 Mane Liverpool 9.4 0.47 0.26
6 Hazard Chelsea 10.8 0.46 0.20
7 Martial Man Utd 8.0 0.42 0.38
8 Richarlison Watford 6.6 0.42 0.21
9 Ramsey Arsenal 7.2 0.39 0.31
10 Sane Man City 8.8 0.36 0.38
11 Zaha C Palace 6.9 0.35 0.09
12 Alli Spurs 9.1 0.33 0.18
13 Son Spurs 7.9 0.33 0.12
14 Silva D Man City 8.2 0.30 0.42
15 Tadic Southampton 6.3 0.28 0.15

Midfielder xA 90 ranking

Rank Midfielder Club Price £ xG 90 xA 90
1 Ozil Arsenal 9.3 0.21 0.52
2 Silva D Man City 8.2 0.30 0.42
3 Sanchez Arsenal 11.8 0.61 0.39
4 Martial Man Utd 8.0 0.42 0.38
5 Sane Man City 8.8 0.36 0.38
6 Coutinho Liverpool 8.9 0.23 0.36
7 De Bruyne Man City 10.2 0.16 0.36
8 Sterling Man City 8.3 0.57 0.33
9 Mkhitaryan Man Utd 7.7 0.09 0.33
10 Ramsey Arsenal 7.2 0.39 0.31
11 Fabregas Chelsea 6.9 0.12 0.29
12 Eriksen Spurs 9.3 0.20 0.29
13 Ritchie Newcastle 5.7 0.08 0.28
14 Mata Man Utd 6.8 0.08 0.28
15 Pogba Man Utd 8.0 0.48 0.27

A few players who didn’t make the cut (xG90 and xA90):

Gross 0.04 and 0.22

Shaqiri 0.15 and 0.24

Mahrez 0.20 and 0.25

Choupo M 0.25 and 0.15

Sigurdsson 0.16 and 0.13




Forward xG 90 ranking

Rank Forward Club Price £ xG 90 xA 90
1 Jesus Man City 10.4 0.98 0.11
2 Aguero Man City 11.7 0.93 0.42
3 Okazaki Leicester 5.5 0.72 0.10
4 Lacazette Arsenal 10.3 0.70 0.16
5 Lukaku Man Utd 11.4 0.67 0.13
6 Kane Spurs 12.8 0.67 0.12
7 Morata Chelsea 10.8 0.57 0.15
8 Murray Brighton 5.8 0.51 0.02
9 Welbeck Arsenal 7.3 0.50 0.19
10 Deeney Watford 6.3 0.41 0.14

Forwards xA 90 ranking

Rank Forward Club Price £ xG 90 xA 90
1 Aguero Man City 11.7 0.93 0.42
2 Rashford Man Utd 7.6 0.26 0.33
3 Firmino Liverpool 8.5 0.39 0.29
4 Welbeck Arsenal 7.3 0.50 0.19
5 Lacazette Arsenal 10.3 0.70 0.16
6 Morata Chelsea 10.8 0.57 0.15
7 Calvert L Everton 5.2 0.26 0.15
8 Deeney Watford 6.3 0.41 0.14
9 Gray Watford 6.3 0.32 0.14
10 Rooney Everton 7.3 0.39 0.13

A few players who didn’t make the cut due to numbers or minutes or both (xG90 and xA90):

 Austin 0.82 and 0.02

Niasse 0.72 and 0.12

Wilson 0.40 and 0.03

Vardy 0.40 and 0.09

Abraham 0.37 and 0.09

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Comments

1 comment
  • BEAST

    My team
    elliot , lossl
    christensen,mustafi,otamendi,davies, gomez
    sanchez,coutinho,gross,surman, cork
    aguero,kane, quarner
    2 transfer and 0.2 in bank…
    Any advice

    Reply

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