fantasy premier league expected goals – totals to GW16


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Here’s our look at some fantasy premier league expected goals totals to GW16. We look at team stats and individual players by position stats

FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE EXPECTED GOALS – TOTALS TO GW16

Here’s our fantasy premier league underlying stats review where we look at expected goals (xG) at a team and at an attacking player level to see what insights we can get for future player selection. We also look at expected assists (xA) at a player level.

Expected goals is a stat where the probability is evaluated that any given shot will end up as a goal.

Expected goals are based on a number of factors, such as where the shot was taken from and where the opposition defenders are at the time. The shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability in the league. To state the obvious , a shot from inside the 6 yard box in front of goal with no defenders around will have a very high probability it will end up as a goal.

In essence it shows you what should have happened rather than what has happened. Remember though we are only 6 games in so it’s difficult to make any accurate predictions from such limited data

The expected goals are now all wholly from the excellent site understat.com

I’m not going to look at them from a regression basis and compare them to goals and assists. While it can be useful with some players to look at over and under performance against the underlying stats, some players will perform way above or below the expected goals. Kane was a great example last season. If you expected regression you would never have got it as he was a lethal finisher. They should just be looked at as a way of evaluating a team or players goal or assist potential.




TEAM DEFENCE XG

I’ve provided the xG conceded as a whole ranked by the least to the most. The teams have then been ranked home and away but without me giving the xG conceded for the home and away stats so it’s easier to follow.

xG for attack has been done in the same way

At the moment I’m just presenting data. There will be interpretation of it in the player rankings articles later.  If you want to see how good the fixtures of these players see our fixture ease article or you can see who the top 10 FPL managers I follow have in their team

Ovr RankTeamxGA  OverallHome rankAway Rank
1Manchester City9.5631
2Tottenham11.4623
3Chelsea13.3172
4Arsenal17.3287
5Liverpool18.17118
6Southampton18.42514
7WBA18.92144
8Manchester United18.98415
9Leicester19.71138
10Brighton19.91165
11Burnley20.18616
12Newcastle United20.641210
13Swansea21.331511
14Bournemouth21.46179
15Everton22.701813
16Watford22.76206
17Huddersfield23.071117
18Crystal Palace23.34919
19Stoke23.781912
20West Ham26.031020

Team attack xG

Ovr RankTeamxG OverallHome rankAway Rank
1Manchester City40.9311
2Arsenal33.9526
3Liverpool31.8442
4Manchester United29.7834
5Tottenham24.3383
6Chelsea20.957
7Watford20.48135
8Southampton19.18711
9Leicester19.17108
10Crystal Palace18.7612
11Everton17.08913
12Newcastle United15.871510
13Stoke15.671115
14West Ham13.59199
15WBA13.341219
16Brighton12.031714
17Swansea11.81420
18Bournemouth11.781618
19Burnley10.761817
20Huddersfield9.852016

PLAYER XG AND XA BY POSITION PER 90 MINUTES PLAYED

I’ve made an arbitrary decision that the player must have played 500 minutes to be considered. The stats have not been filtered for gametime security and fitness. That will happen in the player rankings later. The player values are as of Tuesday 5th December.

DEFENDER XG 90 RANKING

RankDefenderClubPricexG 90xA 90
1MatipLiverpool5.50.170.04
2BainesEverton5.70.160.11
3YoshidaSouthampton4.90.150.06
4OtamendiMan City5.80.150.01
5ClarkNewcastle4.50.130.05
6BaillyMan Utd6.10.130.03
7DannC Palace4.70.110.02
8BritosWatford4.40.110.11
9KolasinacArsenal6.20.110.24
10AlonsoChelsea6.90.110.03

Defender xA 90 Ranking

RankDefenderClubPrice £xG 90xA 90
1TrippierSpurs5.60.010.27
2KolasinacArsenal6.20.110.24
3HolebasWatford4.90.020.20
4WalkerMan City6.70.010.20
5KenneyEverton4.30.020.19
6DaviesSpurs5.60.090.19
7AzpilicuetaChelsea6.90.040.17
8Van DijkSouthampton5.40.080.16
9MilnerLiverpool6.10.100.15
10MosesChelsea6.40.080.15

A few players who didn’t make the cut (xG90 and xA90):

Valencia 0.02 and 0.03

Daniels 0.01 and 0.07

MIDFIELDER XG 90 RANKING

RankMidfielderClubPrice £xG 90xA 90
1SalahLiverpool9.90.720.22
2SanchezArsenal11.80.610.39
3SterlingMan City8.30.570.33
4PogbaMan Utd8.00.480.27
5ManeLiverpool9.40.470.26
6HazardChelsea10.80.460.20
7MartialMan Utd8.00.420.38
8RicharlisonWatford6.60.420.21
9RamseyArsenal7.20.390.31
10SaneMan City8.80.360.38
11ZahaC Palace6.90.350.09
12AlliSpurs9.10.330.18
13SonSpurs7.90.330.12
14Silva DMan City8.20.300.42
15TadicSouthampton6.30.280.15

Midfielder xA 90 ranking

RankMidfielderClubPrice £xG 90xA 90
1OzilArsenal9.30.210.52
2Silva DMan City8.20.300.42
3SanchezArsenal11.80.610.39
4MartialMan Utd8.00.420.38
5SaneMan City8.80.360.38
6CoutinhoLiverpool8.90.230.36
7De BruyneMan City10.20.160.36
8SterlingMan City8.30.570.33
9MkhitaryanMan Utd7.70.090.33
10RamseyArsenal7.20.390.31
11FabregasChelsea6.90.120.29
12EriksenSpurs9.30.200.29
13RitchieNewcastle5.70.080.28
14MataMan Utd6.80.080.28
15PogbaMan Utd8.00.480.27

A few players who didn’t make the cut (xG90 and xA90):

Gross 0.04 and 0.22

Shaqiri 0.15 and 0.24

Mahrez 0.20 and 0.25

Choupo M 0.25 and 0.15

Sigurdsson 0.16 and 0.13




Forward xG 90 ranking

RankForwardClubPrice £xG 90xA 90
1JesusMan City10.40.980.11
2AgueroMan City11.70.930.42
3OkazakiLeicester5.50.720.10
4LacazetteArsenal10.30.700.16
5LukakuMan Utd11.40.670.13
6KaneSpurs12.80.670.12
7MorataChelsea10.80.570.15
8MurrayBrighton5.80.510.02
9WelbeckArsenal7.30.500.19
10DeeneyWatford6.30.410.14

Forwards xA 90 ranking

RankForwardClubPrice £xG 90xA 90
1AgueroMan City11.70.930.42
2RashfordMan Utd7.60.260.33
3FirminoLiverpool8.50.390.29
4WelbeckArsenal7.30.500.19
5LacazetteArsenal10.30.700.16
6MorataChelsea10.80.570.15
7Calvert LEverton5.20.260.15
8DeeneyWatford6.30.410.14
9GrayWatford6.30.320.14
10RooneyEverton7.30.390.13

A few players who didn’t make the cut due to numbers or minutes or both (xG90 and xA90):

 Austin 0.82 and 0.02

Niasse 0.72 and 0.12

Wilson 0.40 and 0.03

Vardy 0.40 and 0.09

Abraham 0.37 and 0.09

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1 thought on “fantasy premier league expected goals – totals to GW16

  1. My team
    elliot , lossl
    christensen,mustafi,otamendi,davies, gomez
    sanchez,coutinho,gross,surman, cork
    aguero,kane, quarner
    2 transfer and 0.2 in bank…
    Any advice

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