fantasy premier league expected goals – totals to GW22

Here’s our look at some fantasy premier league expected goals totals to GW22. We look at team stats and individual players by position stats.  There’s also an xG/xA team at the end as a summary

FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE EXPECTED GOALS – TOTALS TO GW22

There’s alot of stats to come so if you’d rather just see the outcome look at the xG and xA team at the end.

You can also see Joseph Crilleys GW22 review which includes the gameweek xG and xA

Here’s our fantasy premier league underlying stats review where we look at expected goals (xG) at a team and at an attacking player level to see what insights we can get for future player selection. We also look at expected assists (xA) at a player level.

Expected goals is a stat where the probability is evaluated that any given shot will end up as a goal.

Expected goals are based on a number of factors, such as where the shot was taken from and where the opposition defenders are at the time. The shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability in the league. To state the obvious , a shot from inside the 6 yard box in front of goal with no defenders around will have a very high probability it will end up as a goal.

In essence it shows you what should have happened rather than what has happened. Remember though we are only 6 games in so it’s difficult to make any accurate predictions from such limited data

The expected goals are now all wholly from the excellent site understat.com

I’m not going to look at them from a regression basis and compare them to goals and assists. While it can be useful with some players to look at over and under performance against the underlying stats, some players will perform way above or below the expected goals. Kane was a great example last season. If you expected regression you would never have got it as he was a lethal finisher. They should just be looked at as a way of evaluating a team or players goal or assist potential.

TEAM DEFENCE XG

I’ve provided the xG conceded as a whole ranked by the least to the most. The teams have then been ranked home and away but without me giving the xG conceded for the home and away stats so it’s easier to follow.

xG for attack has been done in the same way

At the moment I’m just presenting data. There will be interpretation of it in the player rankings articles later.

TEAM ATTACK XG

PLAYER XG AND XA BY POSITION PER 90 MINUTES PLAYED

I’ve made an arbitrary decision that the player must have played 500 minutes to be considered. The stats have not been filtered for gametime security and fitness. That will happen in the player rankings later.

DEFENDER XG 90 RANKING

DEFENDER XA 90 RANKING

MIDFIELDER XG 90 RANKING

MIDFIELDER XA 90 RANKING

FORWARD XG 90 RANKING

FORWARDS XA 90 RANKING

Here I’ve put a team an FPL team together based on value generated by the xG and xA numbers.  I’ve taken into account injuries and only included players that have reasonable gametime security.The XG and XA team

In defence I’ve looked at the best overall defence but tried to have at least 1 cheap defender and cheap GKs.  It doesn’t take into account future fixtures but does looks at past xG and xA performance only.  It doesn’t adjust for current or historic under/overperformance of these stats.

The team is valued at around £102.5m

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