Here’s our look at some fantasy premier league expected goals totals to GW24. We look at team stats and individual players by position stats. There’s also an xG/xA team at the end as a summary. I’ve changed the format to concentrate on turning the stats into points for the different positions.
FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE EXPECTED GOALS – TOTALS TO GW24
There’s alot of stats to come so if you’d rather just see the outcome look at the expected goals/assists team at the end.
Background
Expected goals is a stat where the probability is evaluated that any given shot will end up as a goal.
Expected goals are based on a number of factors, such as where the shot was taken from and where the opposition defenders are at the time. The shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability in the league. To state the obvious , a shot from inside the 6 yard box in front of goal with no defenders around will have a very high probability it will end up as a goal.
In essence it shows you what should have happened rather than what has happened.
The expected goals are now all wholly from the excellent free site understat.com
Team rankings for defence and attack
Here I rank the teams overall for defence and attack and then home and away
Team defence
| Ovr Rank | Home Rank | Away Rank | |
| 1 | Man City | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | Chelsea | 4 | 2 |
| 3 | Spurs | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 1 | 9 |
| 5 | Arsenal | 9 | 4 |
| 6 | WBA | 7 | 5 |
| 7 | Man Utd | 5 | 8 |
| 8 | Leicester | 14 | 6 |
| 9 | Southampton | 6 | 15 |
| 10 | Huddersfield | 12 | 11 |
| 11 | Burnley | 11 | 12 |
| 12 | Brighton | 15 | 10 |
| 13 | Newcastle | 13 | 13 |
| 14 | C Palace | 10 | 16 |
| 15 | West Ham | 8 | 20 |
| 16 | Everton | 16 | 17 |
| 17 | Watford | 20 | 7 |
| 18 | Swansea | 18 | 14 |
| 19 | Bournemouth | 17 | 18 |
| 20 | Stoke | 19 | 19 |
team attack
| Ovr Rank | Home Rank | Away Rank | |
| 1 | Man City | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | Liverpool | 3 | 2 |
| 3 | Arsenal | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Spurs | 4 | 3 |
| 5 | Man Utd | 5 | 5 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 7 | 4 |
| 7 | C Palace | 6 | 11 |
| 8 | Watford | 13 | 6 |
| 9 | Leicester | 9 | 9 |
| 10 | Southampton | 8 | 12 |
| 11 | Stoke | 10 | 14 |
| 12 | West Ham | 17 | 8 |
| 13 | Newcastle | 16 | 10 |
| 14 | Everton | 11 | 15 |
| 15 | WBA | 12 | 16 |
| 16 | Bournemouth | 14 | 18 |
| 17 | Brighton | 15 | 19 |
| 18 | Huddersfield | 19 | 13 |
| 19 | Swansea | 18 | 20 |
| 20 | Burnley | 20 | 17 |
Method and Caveats
This is just one part of ranking players it’s not the be all and end all. I do a player rankings series which uses more stats than just xG and xA
Here I have taken the Non penalty xG per 90 minutes (NPxG90) and the xA and converted them into goals and assist points and then total points as if they were playing over the whole season 90 minutes each game. I haven’t added on appearance points, adjusted for average minutes or bonus points or clean sheets for defenders. It’s purely just the goals and assist points
Players don’t perform on a straight line with the stats. Some like Hazard and De Bruyne have shown they can over perform. Others like Tadic have a history of under performing. I have not tried to adjust for this. That’s more for the player rankings articles.
Don’t concentrate too much on the points. They are principally for ranking purposes. If you wonder why the random numbers of players it’s because I went down to a certain threshold and then it was whatever number of players ended up.
Defenders attack ranking
| Rank | Player | Club | Price £m | NPxG90 | xA90 | Points |
| 1 | Sead Kolasinac | Arsenal | 5.9 | 0.10 | 0.22 | 48 |
| 2 | Mamadou Sakho | Crystal Palace | 4.7 | 0.16 | 0.03 | 40 |
| 3 | Marcos Alonso | Chelsea | 7.3 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 39 |
| 4 | Victor Moses | Chelsea | 6.4 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 36 |
| 5 | Scott Dann | Crystal Palace | 4.6 | 0.15 | 0.01 | 35 |
| 6 | Joel Matip | Liverpool | 5.4 | 0.14 | 0.03 | 35 |
| 7 | Héctor Bellerín | Arsenal | 6.1 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 34 |
| 8 | Ciaran Clark | Newcastle Utd | 4.4 | 0.12 | 0.05 | 33 |
| 9 | Ben Davies | Tottenham | 5.5 | 0.05 | 0.19 | 33 |
| 10 | Nicolás Otamendi | Manchester City | 6.5 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 30 |
| 11 | Ryan Shawcross | Stoke | 4.8 | 0.12 | 0.01 | 29 |
| 12 | Maya Yoshida | Southampton | 4.8 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 29 |
| 13 | Dejan Lovren | Liverpool | 5.3 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 29 |
| 14 | Serge Aurier | Tottenham | 5.9 | 0.03 | 0.19 | 29 |
| 15 | Andrew Robertson | Liverpool | 4.7 | 0.03 | 0.17 | 26 |
| 16 | Kieran Trippier | Tottenham | 5.2 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 26 |
| 17 | Patrick van Aanholt | Crystal Palace | 5.1 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 26 |
| 18 | José Holebas | Watford | 4.8 | 0.02 | 0.18 | 25 |
| 19 | Nacho Monreal | Arsenal | 5.6 | 0.05 | 0.12 | 25 |
| 20 | Jonny Evans | WBA | 4.9 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 24 |
| 21 | César Azpilicueta | Chelsea | 7.0 | 0.03 | 0.15 | 24 |
| 22 | Ryan Bertrand | Southampton | 5.3 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 24 |
| 23 | John Stones | Manchester City | 5.4 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 23 |
| 24 | David Luiz | Chelsea | 5.7 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 21 |
| 25 | Leighton Baines | Everton | 5.6 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 19 |
| 26 | Christopher Schindler | Huddersfield | 4.6 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 18 |
| 27 | Kyle Walker | Manchester City | 6.6 | 0.01 | 0.13 | 17 |
| 28 | Aaron Cresswell | West Ham | 5.1 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 15 |
| 29 | Arthur Masuaku | West Ham | 4.5 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 15 |
| 30 | Tommy Smith | Huddersfield | 4.8 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 15 |
| 31 | Jonjoe Kenny | Everton | 4.5 | 0.01 | 0.10 | 14 |
| 32 | Marvin Zeegelaar | Watford | 4.3 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 9 |
Midfield ranking
| Rank | Player | Club | Price £m | NPxG90 | xA90 | Points |
| 1 | Mohamed Salah | Liverpool | 10.2 | 0.74 | 0.26 | 170 |
| 2 | Raheem Sterling | Manchester City | 8.9 | 0.54 | 0.28 | 135 |
| 3 | Alexis Sánchez | Manchester Utd | 11.7 | 0.44 | 0.32 | 120 |
| 4 | Son Heung-Min | Tottenham | 8.2 | 0.40 | 0.34 | 115 |
| 5 | David Silva | Manchester City | 8.0 | 0.39 | 0.35 | 114 |
| 6 | Jesse Lingard | Manchester Utd | 6.4 | 0.47 | 0.21 | 113 |
| 7 | Anthony Martial | Manchester Utd | 8.0 | 0.37 | 0.36 | 111 |
| 8 | Aaron Ramsey | Arsenal | 6.9 | 0.37 | 0.29 | 103 |
| 9 | Sadio Mané | Liverpool | 9.3 | 0.40 | 0.23 | 102 |
| 10 | Paul Pogba | Manchester Utd | 8.0 | 0.39 | 0.21 | 98 |
| 11 | Leroy Sané | Manchester City | 8.4 | 0.27 | 0.40 | 97 |
| 12 | Dele Alli | Tottenham | 9.0 | 0.33 | 0.27 | 93 |
| 13 | Marko Arnautovic | West Ham | 7.1 | 0.37 | 0.17 | 90 |
| 14 | Richarlison | Watford | 6.3 | 0.37 | 0.16 | 89 |
| 15 | Mesut Özil | Arsenal | 9.3 | 0.21 | 0.40 | 86 |
| 16 | Alex Iwobi | Arsenal | 5.1 | 0.31 | 0.21 | 83 |
| 17 | Willian | Chelsea | 6.7 | 0.21 | 0.33 | 78 |
| 18 | Christian Eriksen | Tottenham | 9.3 | 0.23 | 0.29 | 77 |
| 19 | Eden Hazard | Chelsea | 10.6 | 0.28 | 0.20 | 76 |
| 20 | Wilfried Zaha | Crystal Palace | 6.9 | 0.30 | 0.15 | 74 |
| 21 | Kevin De Bruyne | Manchester City | 10.2 | 0.16 | 0.36 | 71 |
| 22 | E M Choupo-Moting | Stoke | 5.4 | 0.27 | 0.15 | 68 |
| 23 | Cesc Fàbregas | Chelsea | 6.8 | 0.13 | 0.35 | 65 |
| 24 | Pedro | Chelsea | 7.7 | 0.27 | 0.11 | 64 |
| 25 | Riyad Mahrez | Leicester | 8.7 | 0.17 | 0.27 | 63 |
| 26 | Dusan Tadic | Southampton | 6.2 | 0.18 | 0.23 | 60 |
| 27 | Xherdan Shaqiri | Stoke | 6.0 | 0.16 | 0.23 | 57 |
| 28 | Moussa Sissoko | Tottenham | 5.4 | 0.19 | 0.17 | 55 |
| 29 | André Ayew | West Ham | 6.8 | 0.27 | 0.03 | 55 |
| 30 | Henrikh Mkhitaryan | Arsenal | 7.6 | 0.09 | 0.33 | 55 |
| 31 | Juan Mata | Manchester Utd | 6.8 | 0.15 | 0.22 | 54 |
| 32 | José Izquierdo | Brighton | 5.9 | 0.20 | 0.13 | 53 |
| 33 | Christian Atsu | Newcastle Utd | 4.8 | 0.19 | 0.12 | 50 |
| 34 | Nathan Redmond | Southampton | 5.9 | 0.10 | 0.23 | 45 |
| 35 | Andros Townsend | Crystal Palace | 5.6 | 0.09 | 0.22 | 42 |
| 36 | Tom Ince | Huddersfield | 5.5 | 0.19 | 0.05 | 42 |
| 37 | Matt Ritchie | Newcastle Utd | 5.4 | 0.07 | 0.24 | 41 |
| 38 | Pascal Groß | Brighton | 5.8 | 0.05 | 0.27 | 40 |
| 39 | Chris Brunt | WBA | 5.1 | 0.03 | 0.30 | 40 |
| 40 | Marc Albrighton | Leicester | 5.6 | 0.07 | 0.22 | 38 |
| 41 | Ashley Young | Manchester Utd | 5.0 | 0.04 | 0.20 | 30 |
Forward rankings
| Rank | Player | Club | Price £m | NPxG90 | xA90 | Points |
| 1 | Sergio Agüero | Manchester City | 11.8 | 0.73 | 0.32 | 147 |
| 2 | Gabriel Jesus | Manchester City | 9.9 | 0.87 | 0.11 | 145 |
| 3 | Harry Kane | Tottenham | 13.0 | 0.80 | 0.12 | 135 |
| 4 | Álvaro Morata | Chelsea | 10.4 | 0.63 | 0.15 | 113 |
| 5 | Shinji Okazaki | Leicester | 5.5 | 0.62 | 0.08 | 103 |
| 6 | Romelu Lukaku | Manchester Utd | 11.3 | 0.53 | 0.17 | 100 |
| 7 | Alexandre Lacazette | Arsenal | 10.3 | 0.52 | 0.16 | 97 |
| 8 | Roberto Firmino | Liverpool | 9.2 | 0.32 | 0.29 | 82 |
| 9 | Marcus Rashford | Manchester Utd | 7.5 | 0.31 | 0.30 | 81 |
| 10 | Andre Gray | Watford | 6.3 | 0.43 | 0.11 | 78 |
| 11 | Christian Benteke | Crystal Palace | 7.6 | 0.37 | 0.15 | 73 |
| 12 | Peter Crouch | Stoke | 4.9 | 0.26 | 0.28 | 71 |
| 13 | Chicharito | West Ham | 6.7 | 0.36 | 0.09 | 65 |
| 14 | Jermain Defoe | Bournemouth | 7.6 | 0.35 | 0.07 | 61 |
| 15 | Callum Wilson | Bournemouth | 5.8 | 0.35 | 0.07 | 61 |
| 16 | Dwight Gayle | Newcastle Utd | 6.1 | 0.34 | 0.08 | 61 |
| 17 | Tammy Abraham | Swansea | 5.5 | 0.34 | 0.07 | 60 |
| 18 | Steve Mounie | Huddersfield | 5.7 | 0.30 | 0.09 | 56 |
| 19 | Joselu | Newcastle Utd | 5.5 | 0.30 | 0.08 | 55 |
| 20 | Jamie Vardy | Leicester | 8.5 | 0.26 | 0.10 | 51 |
| 21 | Glenn Murray | Brighton | 5.7 | 0.31 | 0.02 | 49 |
| 22 | Mame Biram Diouf | Stoke | 5.4 | 0.27 | 0.07 | 49 |
| 23 | Wayne Rooney | Everton | 7.4 | 0.24 | 0.10 | 48 |
| 24 | D Calvert-Lewin | Everton | 5.4 | 0.21 | 0.10 | 43 |
| 25 | Salomón Rondón | WBA | 6.0 | 0.24 | 0.05 | 42 |
| 26 | Joshua King | Bournemouth | 7.0 | 0.18 | 0.13 | 42 |
| 27 | Ashley Barnes | Burnley | 5.2 | 0.22 | 0.06 | 40 |
| 28 | Jay Rodriguez | WBA | 5.5 | 0.22 | 0.06 | 40 |
| 29 | Chris Wood | Burnley | 6.3 | 0.22 | 0.03 | 37 |
| 30 | Hal Robson-Kanu | WBA | 4.9 | 0.21 | 0.04 | 36 |
| 31 | Jordan Ayew | Swansea | 5.1 | 0.18 | 0.06 | 34 |
| 32 | Tomer Hemed | Brighton | 4.8 | 0.18 | 0.01 | 29 |
An xG and xA team
So I picked a team of about £106m so not achievable by many. It is just meant to be a player menu.
Gametime was a filtering factor as was a team structure of:
2 cheap GKs
3 premium defenders. 2 cheap defs who were good at home
2 premium mids. 2 cheaper mids and 1 around £4.5m
2 premium forwards and 1 cheap forward
Here’s the team:
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