fantasy premier league expected goals – totals to GW26

Here’s our look at some fantasy premier league expected goals totals to GW26. We look at team stats and individual players by position stats. There’s also an xG/xA team at the end as a summary. I’ve changed the format to concentrate on turning the stats into points for the different positions.

FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE EXPECTED GOALS – TOTALS TO GW26

There’s alot of stats to come so if you’d rather just see the outcome look at the expected goals/assists team at the end.  You can also the expected goals tables for GW26 itself in Joseph Crilleys GW26 review

BACKGROUND

Expected goals is a stat where the probability is evaluated that any given shot will end up as a goal.

Expected goals are based on a number of factors, such as where the shot was taken from and where the opposition defenders are at the time. The shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability in the league. To state the obvious , a shot from inside the 6 yard box in front of goal with no defenders around will have a very high probability it will end up as a goal.

In essence it shows you what should have happened rather than what has happened.

The expected goals are now all wholly from the excellent free site understat.com




TEAM RANKINGS FOR DEFENCE AND ATTACK

Here I rank the teams overall for defence and attack and then home and away

Team defence

Ovr Rank Home Rank Away Rank
1 Manchester City 2 1
2 Tottenham 1 3
3 Chelsea 4 2
4 Liverpool 3 6
5 Manchester United 5 10
6 Arsenal 9 4
7 WBA 7 8
8 Leicester 11 7
9 Southampton 6 12
10 Brighton 12 9
11 Huddersfield 14 11
12 Crystal Palace 10 15
13 Burnley 15 13
14 Newcastle United 13 16
15 Watford 20 5
16 West Ham 8 20
17 Bournemouth 16 17
18 Swansea 18 14
19 Everton 17 18
20 Stoke 19 19

Team attack

Ovr Rank Home Rank Away Rank
1 Manchester City 1 1
2 Liverpool 4 2
3 Arsenal 2 7
4 Tottenham 3 3
5 Manchester United 5 5
6 Chelsea 7 4
7 Crystal Palace 6 11
8 Leicester 9 8
9 Watford 12 6
10 Southampton 8 12
11 Newcastle United 15 10
12 Everton 10 13
13 Stoke 11 14
14 West Ham 18 9
15 Bournemouth 13 16
16 WBA 14 19
17 Brighton 16 18
18 Huddersfield 19 15
19 Swansea 17 20
20 Burnley 20 17

METHOD AND CAVEATS FOR PLAYER RANKINGS

This is just one part of ranking players it’s not the be all and end all. I do a player rankings series which uses more stats than just xG and xA

Here I have taken the Non penalty xG per 90 minutes (NPxG90) and the xA and converted them into goals and assist points and then total points as if they were playing over the whole season 90 minutes each game. I haven’t added on appearance points, adjusted for average minutes or bonus points or clean sheets for defenders. It’s purely just the goals and assist points.  There was a minimum minutes played of 500 minutes.

Players don’t perform on a straight line with the stats. Some like Hazard and De Bruyne have shown they can over perform. Others like Tadic have a history of under performing. I have not tried to adjust for this. That’s more for the player rankings articles.

Don’t concentrate too much on the points. They are principally for ranking purposes. If you wonder why the random numbers of players it’s because I went down to a certain threshold and then it was whatever number of players ended up.

Defenders attack ranking

Rank Player Club £m NPxG90 xA Pts
1 Sead Kolasinac Arsenal 5.9 0.10 0.21 47
2 Marcos Alonso Chelsea 7.4 0.13 0.09 40
3 Virgil van Dijk Liverpool 5.5 0.09 0.16 39
4 Mamadou Sakho Crystal Palace 4.7 0.15 0.03 38
5 Scott Dann Crystal Palace 4.6 0.15 0.01 35
6 Miguel Britos Watford 4.3 0.10 0.11 35
7 James Milner Liverpool 6.0 0.08 0.15 35
8 Victor Moses Chelsea 6.4 0.10 0.10 34
9 Joel Matip Liverpool 5.4 0.13 0.03 33
10 Eric Bailly Manchester United 6.0 0.13 0.02 32
11 Héctor Bellerín Arsenal 6.1 0.09 0.10 32
12 Nacho Monreal Arsenal 5.7 0.08 0.11 31
13 Ben Davies Tottenham 5.5 0.05 0.17 31
14 Ciaran Clark Newcastle United 4.4 0.11 0.05 31
15 Kevin Long Burnley 4.1 0.04 0.18 30
16 Alexander-Arnold Liverpool 4.2 0.04 0.17 29
17 Maya Yoshida Southampton 4.7 0.11 0.03 29
18 Daryl Janmaat Watford 4.8 0.10 0.05 29
19 Serge Aurier Tottenham 5.9 0.03 0.19 29
20 van Aanholt Crystal Palace 5.1 0.06 0.13 29
21 Nicolás Otamendi Manchester City 6.5 0.11 0.02 27
22 Davide Zappacosta Chelsea 5.9 0.05 0.13 26
23 Laurent Koscielny Arsenal 6.0 0.10 0.02 25
24 Dejan Lovren Liverpool 5.3 0.08 0.06 25
25 Jonny Evans WBA 4.9 0.08 0.05 24
26 Andrew Robertson Liverpool 4.7 0.03 0.15 24
27 Kieran Trippier Tottenham 5.2 0.00 0.21 24
28 Ryan Bertrand Southampton 5.3 0.06 0.09 24
29 Wesley Hoedt Southampton 5.0 0.08 0.04 23
30 Harry Maguire Leicester 5.5 0.04 0.12 23
31 Kyle Walker Manchester City 6.6 0.02 0.16 23
32 John Stones Manchester City 5.4 0.10 0.00 23
33 Alfie Mawson Swansea 5.0 0.09 0.02 23
34 César Azpilicueta Chelsea 7.0 0.03 0.14 23
35 José Holebas Watford 4.8 0.01 0.16 21
36 Ahmed Hegazy WBA 4.6 0.08 0.01 19
37 Leighton Baines Everton 5.6 0.03 0.11 19
38 David Luiz Chelsea 5.7 0.08 0.00 18
39 Shane Duffy Brighton 4.6 0.07 0.02 18
40 Jack Stephens Southampton 4.5 0.07 0.02 18
41 Chris Schindler Huddersfield 4.6 0.03 0.10 18
42 Lewis Dunk Brighton 4.5 0.07 0.01 17
43 Ragnar Klavan Liverpool 4.4 0.07 0.01 17
44 Jamaal Lascelles Newcastle United 4.6 0.07 0.01 17
45 Aaron Cresswell West Ham 5.1 0.01 0.12 16
46 Arthur Masuaku West Ham 4.4 0.01 0.11 15
47 Paul Dummett Newcastle United 4.2 0.02 0.09 15
48 Joseph Gomez Liverpool 4.7 0.03 0.07 15
49 Tommy Smith Huddersfield 4.7 0.01 0.10 14
50 Jonjoe Kenny Everton 4.4 0.01 0.10 14
51 Ben Chilwell Leicester 4.3 0.01 0.10 14
52 Adam Smith Bournemouth 4.8 0.02 0.07 13
53 Kiko Femenía Watford 4.3 0.01 0.08 11
55 Marvin Zeegelaar Watford 4.3 0.00 0.08 9
55 Chancel Mbemba Newcastle United 3.9 0.00 0.08 9

Midfield attack ranking

Rank Player Club £m NPxG90 xA Pts
1 Mohamed Salah Liverpool 10.3 0.74 0.24 168
2 Raheem Sterling Manchester City 9.0 0.58 0.32 147
3 Alexis Sánchez Manchester United 11.8 0.43 0.30 116
4 Son Heung-Min Tottenham 8.1 0.41 0.32 114
5 David Silva Manchester City 7.9 0.39 0.34 113
6 Jesse Lingard Manchester United 6.2 0.46 0.19 109
7 Aaron Ramsey Arsenal 7.0 0.40 0.26 106
8 Anthony Martial Manchester United 8.1 0.35 0.33 104
9 Sadio Mané Liverpool 9.3 0.40 0.22 101
10 Leroy Sané Manchester City 8.3 0.27 0.40 97
11 Paul Pogba Manchester United 8.0 0.38 0.20 95
12 Dele Alli Tottenham 8.9 0.32 0.27 92
13 Marko Arnautovic West Ham 6.9 0.37 0.17 90
14 Bernardo Silva Manchester City 7.4 0.29 0.28 87
15 Richarlison Watford 6.2 0.36 0.15 86
16 Mesut Özil Arsenal 9.3 0.19 0.43 85
17 Christian Eriksen Tottenham 9.2 0.22 0.31 77
18 Willian Chelsea 6.8 0.21 0.32 76
19 Eden Hazard Chelsea 10.7 0.26 0.22 74
20 Kevin De Bruyne Manchester City 10.3 0.18 0.35 74
21 Alex Iwobi Arsenal 5.1 0.27 0.19 73
22 Henrikh Mkhitaryan Arsenal 7.8 0.12 0.42 71
23 Wilfried Zaha Crystal Palace 6.9 0.28 0.15 70
24 Eric Choupo-Moting Stoke 5.4 0.26 0.14 65
25 Riyad Mahrez Leicester 8.6 0.17 0.27 63
26 Pedro Chelsea 7.7 0.26 0.11 62
27 Cesc Fàbregas Chelsea 6.8 0.12 0.33 60
28 Dusan Tadic Southampton 6.2 0.17 0.22 57
29 Xherdan Shaqiri Stoke 6.1 0.16 0.23 57
30 Moussa Sissoko Tottenham 5.3 0.19 0.17 55
31 André Ayew West Ham 6.8 0.27 0.03 55
32 Ruben Loftus-Cheek Crystal Palace 4.5 0.17 0.19 54
33 Christian Atsu Newcastle United 4.8 0.21 0.12 54
34 Oxlade-Chamberlain Arsenal, Liverpool 5.7 0.17 0.18 53
35 Ilkay Gündogan Manchester City 5.3 0.15 0.21 52
36 Jordon Ibe Bournemouth 4.9 0.15 0.20 51
37 Juan Mata Manchester United 6.8 0.14 0.21 51
38 Jason Puncheon Crystal Palace 4.5 0.22 0.07 50
39 José Izquierdo Brighton 5.9 0.19 0.12 50
40 Demarai Gray Leicester 5.3 0.17 0.13 47
41 Chris Brunt WBA 5.0 0.05 0.33 47
42 Anthony Knockaert Brighton 5.5 0.16 0.14 46
43 James Ward-Prowse Southampton 5.1 0.12 0.20 46
44 Nathan Redmond Southampton 5.9 0.10 0.23 45
45 Manuel Lanzini West Ham 6.7 0.13 0.18 45
46 Roberto Pereyra Watford 5.8 0.14 0.16 45
47 Andros Townsend Crystal Palace 5.6 0.09 0.24 44
48 Tom Ince Huddersfield 5.5 0.20 0.05 44
49 Pascal Groß Brighton 5.8 0.06 0.28 43
50 André Carrillo Watford 5.5 0.12 0.18 43
51 Gylfi Sigurdsson Everton 8.0 0.14 0.14 43
52 Matt Ritchie Newcastle United 5.4 0.07 0.24 41
53 Junior Stanislas Bournemouth 5.9 0.13 0.13 40
54 Matt Phillips WBA 5.4 0.11 0.16 39
55 James McArthur Crystal Palace 4.3 0.16 0.07 38
56 Tiemoué Bakayoko Chelsea 5.0 0.17 0.05 38
57 Marc Albrighton Leicester 5.6 0.07 0.21 37
58 Jacob Murphy Newcastle United 5.0 0.11 0.14 37
59 Jack Wilshere Arsenal 5.3 0.10 0.14 35
60 Yohan Cabaye Crystal Palace 5.3 0.10 0.14 35
61 Ryan Fraser Bournemouth 5.1 0.11 0.12 35
62 Sofiane Boufal Southampton 5.7 0.10 0.13 34
63 Johann Gudmundsson Burnley 5.0 0.09 0.14 33
64 Robbie Brady Burnley 5.3 0.08 0.15 32
65 Michail Antonio West Ham 7.4 0.14 0.04 31
66 James McClean WBA 4.8 0.13 0.05 30
67 Georginio Wijnaldum Liverpool 6.6 0.13 0.04 29
68 Elias Kachunga Huddersfield 5.7 0.13 0.04 29
69 Ashley Young Manchester United 5.0 0.04 0.19 29
70 Leroy Fer Swansea 5.2 0.10 0.08 28
71 Etienne Capoue Watford 4.8 0.11 0.06 28
72 Emre Can Liverpool 4.8 0.07 0.12 27
73 Abdoulaye Doucouré Watford 5.4 0.10 0.06 26
74 Aaron Mooy Huddersfield 5.3 0.08 0.09 25
75 Tom Carroll Swansea 4.3 0.03 0.16 24
76 Mohamed Diamé Newcastle United 4.6 0.12 0.01 24
77 Oriol Romeu Southampton 4.3 0.10 0.04 24
78 van La Parra Huddersfield 4.8 0.10 0.04 24
79 Granit Xhaka Arsenal 5.2 0.07 0.09 24
80 Steven Davis Southampton 4.8 0.08 0.07 23
81 Joe Allen Stoke 5.1 0.08 0.07 23
82 Ramadan Sobhi Stoke 4.5 0.08 0.07 23
83 Andy King Swansea 4.2 0.11 0.01 22
84 Fernandinho Manchester City 5.1 0.06 0.09 22
85 Jonjo Shelvey Newcastle United 5.2 0.06 0.09 22
86 Gareth Barry WBA 4.5 0.07 0.07 21
87 Jeff Hendrick Burnley 5.4 0.07 0.07 21
88 Scott Arfield Burnley 4.9 0.09 0.03 21
89 Sam Clucas Swansea 4.7 0.10 0.01 20
90 Sam Field WBA 4.5 0.09 0.02 19
91 Ander Herrera Manchester United 5.0 0.04 0.10 19
92 Andrew Surman Bournemouth 4.5 0.05 0.08 19
93 Cheikhou Kouyaté West Ham 5.0 0.08 0.03 19
94 Grzegorz Krychowiak WBA 4.8 0.02 0.12 17
95 Vicente Iborra Leicester 5.7 0.07 0.03 17
96 N’Golo Kanté Chelsea 4.9 0.02 0.10 15
97 Jordan Henderson Liverpool 5.3 0.07 0.00 13
98 Lewis Cook Bournemouth 4.3 0.02 0.08 13
99 Mark Noble West Ham 5.3 0.01 0.07 10
100 Darren Fletcher Stoke 4.8 0.01 0.07 10
101 Philip Billing Huddersfield 4.4 0.00 0.08 9

Forward attack ranking

Rank Player Club £m NPxG90 xA Pts
1 Gabriel Jesus Manchester City 9.9 0.87 0.11 145
2 Sergio Agüero Manchester City 11.9 0.69 0.32 141
3 Harry Kane Tottenham 12.8 0.79 0.12 134
4 Charlie Austin Southampton 5.9 0.73 0.03 114
5 Álvaro Morata Chelsea 10.4 0.63 0.15 113
6 Oumar Niasse Everton 4.8 0.59 0.10 101
7 Shinji Okazaki Leicester 5.4 0.59 0.08 99
8 Romelu Lukaku Manchester United 11.3 0.51 0.15 95
9 Alexandre Lacazette Arsenal 10.2 0.50 0.16 94
10 Daniel Sturridge WBA 7.9 0.48 0.15 90
11 Marcus Rashford Manchester United 7.5 0.31 0.30 81
12 Danny Welbeck Arsenal 7.3 0.42 0.14 80
13 Christian Benteke Crystal Palace 7.6 0.42 0.14 80
14 Andre Gray Watford 6.3 0.42 0.12 78
15 Roberto Firmino Liverpool 9.2 0.30 0.26 75
16 Peter Crouch Stoke 4.9 0.26 0.25 68
17 Callum Wilson Bournemouth 5.9 0.34 0.10 63
18 Jermain Defoe Bournemouth 7.6 0.35 0.07 61
19 Tammy Abraham Swansea 5.4 0.34 0.07 60
20 Chicharito West Ham 6.7 0.33 0.08 59
21 Sam Vokes Burnley 5.7 0.29 0.13 59
22 Dwight Gayle Newcastle United 6.1 0.32 0.07 57
23 Joselu Newcastle United 5.5 0.30 0.07 54
24 Steve Mounie Huddersfield 5.7 0.28 0.08 52
25 Glenn Murray Brighton 5.7 0.31 0.02 49
26 Jamie Vardy Leicester 8.6 0.25 0.10 49
27 Ayoze Pérez Newcastle United 5.2 0.17 0.20 49
28 Calvert-Lewin Everton 5.2 0.24 0.10 48
29 Collin Quaner Huddersfield 4.6 0.13 0.24 47
30 Wayne Rooney Everton 7.3 0.23 0.09 45
31 Joshua King Bournemouth 7.0 0.18 0.13 42
32 Troy Deeney Watford 6.3 0.15 0.16 41
33 Salomón Rondón WBA 6.0 0.22 0.04 38
34 Ashley Barnes Burnley 5.2 0.21 0.05 38
35 Jay Rodriguez WBA 5.6 0.20 0.06 37
36 Chris Wood Burnley 6.2 0.22 0.03 37
37 Jordan Ayew Swansea 5.3 0.18 0.06 34
38 Andy Carroll West Ham 5.8 0.18 0.06 34
39 Shane Long Southampton 5.6 0.17 0.07 34
40 Laurent Depoitre Huddersfield 5.4 0.15 0.08 32
41 Hal Robson-Kanu WBA 4.9 0.21 0.00 32
42 Wilfried Bony Swansea 5.7 0.19 0.02 31
43 Tomer Hemed Brighton 4.7 0.18 0.01 29

AN NPXG90 AND XA90 TEAM

So I picked a team of about £106m so not achievable by many. It is just meant to be a player menu.

Gametime was a filtering factor as was a team structure of:

2 cheap GKs picked by defensive strength

3 premium defenders. 2 cheap defs who were good at home

2 premium mids. 2 cheaper mids and 1 around £4.5m

2 premium forwards and 1 cheap forward

Here’s the team:




fantasy premier league expected goals

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