fantasy premier league expected goals – totals to GW26


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Here’s our look at some fantasy premier league expected goals totals to GW26. We look at team stats and individual players by position stats. There’s also an xG/xA team at the end as a summary. I’ve changed the format to concentrate on turning the stats into points for the different positions.

FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE EXPECTED GOALS – TOTALS TO GW26

There’s alot of stats to come so if you’d rather just see the outcome look at the expected goals/assists team at the end.  You can also the expected goals tables for GW26 itself in Joseph Crilleys GW26 review

BACKGROUND

Expected goals is a stat where the probability is evaluated that any given shot will end up as a goal.

Expected goals are based on a number of factors, such as where the shot was taken from and where the opposition defenders are at the time. The shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability in the league. To state the obvious , a shot from inside the 6 yard box in front of goal with no defenders around will have a very high probability it will end up as a goal.

In essence it shows you what should have happened rather than what has happened.

The expected goals are now all wholly from the excellent free site understat.com




TEAM RANKINGS FOR DEFENCE AND ATTACK

Here I rank the teams overall for defence and attack and then home and away

Team defence

Ovr RankHome RankAway Rank
1Manchester City21
2Tottenham13
3Chelsea42
4Liverpool36
5Manchester United510
6Arsenal94
7WBA78
8Leicester117
9Southampton612
10Brighton129
11Huddersfield1411
12Crystal Palace1015
13Burnley1513
14Newcastle United1316
15Watford205
16West Ham820
17Bournemouth1617
18Swansea1814
19Everton1718
20Stoke1919

Team attack

Ovr RankHome RankAway Rank
1Manchester City11
2Liverpool42
3Arsenal27
4Tottenham33
5Manchester United55
6Chelsea74
7Crystal Palace611
8Leicester98
9Watford126
10Southampton812
11Newcastle United1510
12Everton1013
13Stoke1114
14West Ham189
15Bournemouth1316
16WBA1419
17Brighton1618
18Huddersfield1915
19Swansea1720
20Burnley2017

METHOD AND CAVEATS FOR PLAYER RANKINGS

This is just one part of ranking players it’s not the be all and end all. I do a player rankings series which uses more stats than just xG and xA

Here I have taken the Non penalty xG per 90 minutes (NPxG90) and the xA and converted them into goals and assist points and then total points as if they were playing over the whole season 90 minutes each game. I haven’t added on appearance points, adjusted for average minutes or bonus points or clean sheets for defenders. It’s purely just the goals and assist points.  There was a minimum minutes played of 500 minutes.

Players don’t perform on a straight line with the stats. Some like Hazard and De Bruyne have shown they can over perform. Others like Tadic have a history of under performing. I have not tried to adjust for this. That’s more for the player rankings articles.

Don’t concentrate too much on the points. They are principally for ranking purposes. If you wonder why the random numbers of players it’s because I went down to a certain threshold and then it was whatever number of players ended up.

Defenders attack ranking

RankPlayerClub£mNPxG90xAPts
1Sead KolasinacArsenal5.90.100.2147
2Marcos AlonsoChelsea7.40.130.0940
3Virgil van DijkLiverpool5.50.090.1639
4Mamadou SakhoCrystal Palace4.70.150.0338
5Scott DannCrystal Palace4.60.150.0135
6Miguel BritosWatford4.30.100.1135
7James MilnerLiverpool6.00.080.1535
8Victor MosesChelsea6.40.100.1034
9Joel MatipLiverpool5.40.130.0333
10Eric BaillyManchester United6.00.130.0232
11Héctor BellerínArsenal6.10.090.1032
12Nacho MonrealArsenal5.70.080.1131
13Ben DaviesTottenham5.50.050.1731
14Ciaran ClarkNewcastle United4.40.110.0531
15Kevin LongBurnley4.10.040.1830
16Alexander-ArnoldLiverpool4.20.040.1729
17Maya YoshidaSouthampton4.70.110.0329
18Daryl JanmaatWatford4.80.100.0529
19Serge AurierTottenham5.90.030.1929
20van AanholtCrystal Palace5.10.060.1329
21Nicolás OtamendiManchester City6.50.110.0227
22Davide ZappacostaChelsea5.90.050.1326
23Laurent KoscielnyArsenal6.00.100.0225
24Dejan LovrenLiverpool5.30.080.0625
25Jonny EvansWBA4.90.080.0524
26Andrew RobertsonLiverpool4.70.030.1524
27Kieran TrippierTottenham5.20.000.2124
28Ryan BertrandSouthampton5.30.060.0924
29Wesley HoedtSouthampton5.00.080.0423
30Harry MaguireLeicester5.50.040.1223
31Kyle WalkerManchester City6.60.020.1623
32John StonesManchester City5.40.100.0023
33Alfie MawsonSwansea5.00.090.0223
34César AzpilicuetaChelsea7.00.030.1423
35José HolebasWatford4.80.010.1621
36Ahmed HegazyWBA4.60.080.0119
37Leighton BainesEverton5.60.030.1119
38David LuizChelsea5.70.080.0018
39Shane DuffyBrighton4.60.070.0218
40Jack StephensSouthampton4.50.070.0218
41Chris SchindlerHuddersfield4.60.030.1018
42Lewis DunkBrighton4.50.070.0117
43Ragnar KlavanLiverpool4.40.070.0117
44Jamaal LascellesNewcastle United4.60.070.0117
45Aaron CresswellWest Ham5.10.010.1216
46Arthur MasuakuWest Ham4.40.010.1115
47Paul DummettNewcastle United4.20.020.0915
48Joseph GomezLiverpool4.70.030.0715
49Tommy SmithHuddersfield4.70.010.1014
50Jonjoe KennyEverton4.40.010.1014
51Ben ChilwellLeicester4.30.010.1014
52Adam SmithBournemouth4.80.020.0713
53Kiko FemeníaWatford4.30.010.0811
55Marvin ZeegelaarWatford4.30.000.089
55Chancel MbembaNewcastle United3.90.000.089

Midfield attack ranking

RankPlayerClub£mNPxG90xAPts
1Mohamed SalahLiverpool10.30.740.24168
2Raheem SterlingManchester City9.00.580.32147
3Alexis SánchezManchester United11.80.430.30116
4Son Heung-MinTottenham8.10.410.32114
5David SilvaManchester City7.90.390.34113
6Jesse LingardManchester United6.20.460.19109
7Aaron RamseyArsenal7.00.400.26106
8Anthony MartialManchester United8.10.350.33104
9Sadio ManéLiverpool9.30.400.22101
10Leroy SanéManchester City8.30.270.4097
11Paul PogbaManchester United8.00.380.2095
12Dele AlliTottenham8.90.320.2792
13Marko ArnautovicWest Ham6.90.370.1790
14Bernardo SilvaManchester City7.40.290.2887
15RicharlisonWatford6.20.360.1586
16Mesut ÖzilArsenal9.30.190.4385
17Christian EriksenTottenham9.20.220.3177
18WillianChelsea6.80.210.3276
19Eden HazardChelsea10.70.260.2274
20Kevin De BruyneManchester City10.30.180.3574
21Alex IwobiArsenal5.10.270.1973
22Henrikh MkhitaryanArsenal7.80.120.4271
23Wilfried ZahaCrystal Palace6.90.280.1570
24Eric Choupo-MotingStoke5.40.260.1465
25Riyad MahrezLeicester8.60.170.2763
26PedroChelsea7.70.260.1162
27Cesc FàbregasChelsea6.80.120.3360
28Dusan TadicSouthampton6.20.170.2257
29Xherdan ShaqiriStoke6.10.160.2357
30Moussa SissokoTottenham5.30.190.1755
31André AyewWest Ham6.80.270.0355
32Ruben Loftus-CheekCrystal Palace4.50.170.1954
33Christian AtsuNewcastle United4.80.210.1254
34Oxlade-ChamberlainArsenal, Liverpool5.70.170.1853
35Ilkay GündoganManchester City5.30.150.2152
36Jordon IbeBournemouth4.90.150.2051
37Juan MataManchester United6.80.140.2151
38Jason PuncheonCrystal Palace4.50.220.0750
39José IzquierdoBrighton5.90.190.1250
40Demarai GrayLeicester5.30.170.1347
41Chris BruntWBA5.00.050.3347
42Anthony KnockaertBrighton5.50.160.1446
43James Ward-ProwseSouthampton5.10.120.2046
44Nathan RedmondSouthampton5.90.100.2345
45Manuel LanziniWest Ham6.70.130.1845
46Roberto PereyraWatford5.80.140.1645
47Andros TownsendCrystal Palace5.60.090.2444
48Tom InceHuddersfield5.50.200.0544
49Pascal GroßBrighton5.80.060.2843
50André CarrilloWatford5.50.120.1843
51Gylfi SigurdssonEverton8.00.140.1443
52Matt RitchieNewcastle United5.40.070.2441
53Junior StanislasBournemouth5.90.130.1340
54Matt PhillipsWBA5.40.110.1639
55James McArthurCrystal Palace4.30.160.0738
56Tiemoué BakayokoChelsea5.00.170.0538
57Marc AlbrightonLeicester5.60.070.2137
58Jacob MurphyNewcastle United5.00.110.1437
59Jack WilshereArsenal5.30.100.1435
60Yohan CabayeCrystal Palace5.30.100.1435
61Ryan FraserBournemouth5.10.110.1235
62Sofiane BoufalSouthampton5.70.100.1334
63Johann GudmundssonBurnley5.00.090.1433
64Robbie BradyBurnley5.30.080.1532
65Michail AntonioWest Ham7.40.140.0431
66James McCleanWBA4.80.130.0530
67Georginio WijnaldumLiverpool6.60.130.0429
68Elias KachungaHuddersfield5.70.130.0429
69Ashley YoungManchester United5.00.040.1929
70Leroy FerSwansea5.20.100.0828
71Etienne CapoueWatford4.80.110.0628
72Emre CanLiverpool4.80.070.1227
73Abdoulaye DoucouréWatford5.40.100.0626
74Aaron MooyHuddersfield5.30.080.0925
75Tom CarrollSwansea4.30.030.1624
76Mohamed DiaméNewcastle United4.60.120.0124
77Oriol RomeuSouthampton4.30.100.0424
78van La ParraHuddersfield4.80.100.0424
79Granit XhakaArsenal5.20.070.0924
80Steven DavisSouthampton4.80.080.0723
81Joe AllenStoke5.10.080.0723
82Ramadan SobhiStoke4.50.080.0723
83Andy KingSwansea4.20.110.0122
84FernandinhoManchester City5.10.060.0922
85Jonjo ShelveyNewcastle United5.20.060.0922
86Gareth BarryWBA4.50.070.0721
87Jeff HendrickBurnley5.40.070.0721
88Scott ArfieldBurnley4.90.090.0321
89Sam ClucasSwansea4.70.100.0120
90Sam FieldWBA4.50.090.0219
91Ander HerreraManchester United5.00.040.1019
92Andrew SurmanBournemouth4.50.050.0819
93Cheikhou KouyatéWest Ham5.00.080.0319
94Grzegorz KrychowiakWBA4.80.020.1217
95Vicente IborraLeicester5.70.070.0317
96N’Golo KantéChelsea4.90.020.1015
97Jordan HendersonLiverpool5.30.070.0013
98Lewis CookBournemouth4.30.020.0813
99Mark NobleWest Ham5.30.010.0710
100Darren FletcherStoke4.80.010.0710
101Philip BillingHuddersfield4.40.000.089

Forward attack ranking

RankPlayerClub£mNPxG90xAPts
1Gabriel JesusManchester City9.90.870.11145
2Sergio AgüeroManchester City11.90.690.32141
3Harry KaneTottenham12.80.790.12134
4Charlie AustinSouthampton5.90.730.03114
5Álvaro MorataChelsea10.40.630.15113
6Oumar NiasseEverton4.80.590.10101
7Shinji OkazakiLeicester5.40.590.0899
8Romelu LukakuManchester United11.30.510.1595
9Alexandre LacazetteArsenal10.20.500.1694
10Daniel SturridgeWBA7.90.480.1590
11Marcus RashfordManchester United7.50.310.3081
12Danny WelbeckArsenal7.30.420.1480
13Christian BentekeCrystal Palace7.60.420.1480
14Andre GrayWatford6.30.420.1278
15Roberto FirminoLiverpool9.20.300.2675
16Peter CrouchStoke4.90.260.2568
17Callum WilsonBournemouth5.90.340.1063
18Jermain DefoeBournemouth7.60.350.0761
19Tammy AbrahamSwansea5.40.340.0760
20ChicharitoWest Ham6.70.330.0859
21Sam VokesBurnley5.70.290.1359
22Dwight GayleNewcastle United6.10.320.0757
23JoseluNewcastle United5.50.300.0754
24Steve MounieHuddersfield5.70.280.0852
25Glenn MurrayBrighton5.70.310.0249
26Jamie VardyLeicester8.60.250.1049
27Ayoze PérezNewcastle United5.20.170.2049
28Calvert-LewinEverton5.20.240.1048
29Collin QuanerHuddersfield4.60.130.2447
30Wayne RooneyEverton7.30.230.0945
31Joshua KingBournemouth7.00.180.1342
32Troy DeeneyWatford6.30.150.1641
33Salomón RondónWBA6.00.220.0438
34Ashley BarnesBurnley5.20.210.0538
35Jay RodriguezWBA5.60.200.0637
36Chris WoodBurnley6.20.220.0337
37Jordan AyewSwansea5.30.180.0634
38Andy CarrollWest Ham5.80.180.0634
39Shane LongSouthampton5.60.170.0734
40Laurent DepoitreHuddersfield5.40.150.0832
41Hal Robson-KanuWBA4.90.210.0032
42Wilfried BonySwansea5.70.190.0231
43Tomer HemedBrighton4.70.180.0129

AN NPXG90 AND XA90 TEAM

So I picked a team of about £106m so not achievable by many. It is just meant to be a player menu.

Gametime was a filtering factor as was a team structure of:

2 cheap GKs picked by defensive strength

3 premium defenders. 2 cheap defs who were good at home

2 premium mids. 2 cheaper mids and 1 around £4.5m

2 premium forwards and 1 cheap forward

Here’s the team:




fantasy premier league expected goals

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