Here’s our look at some cumulative fantasy premier league expected goals summary to GW5. We look at team stats and individual players by position stats
fantasy premier league expected goals summary to GW5
Here’s our fantasy premier league underlying stats review where we look at expected goals (xG) at a team and at an attacking player level to see what insights we can get for future player selection. We also look at expected assists (xA) at a player level
Expected goals is a stat where the probability is evaluated that any given shot will end up as a goal.
Expected goals are based on a number of factors, such as where the shot was taken from and where the opposition defenders are at the time. The shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability in the league. To state the obvious , a shot from inside the 6 yard box in front of goal with no defenders around will have a very high probability it will end up as a goal.
In essence it shows you what should have happened rather than what has happened. Remember though we are only 5 games in so it’s difficult to make any accurate predictions from such limited data
Team expected goals are from twitter sites 11tegen11 and caley graphics. Player stats are from a great site called understat. All 3 sites are free and public. It’s also worth remembering that there are various people providing this data and it is subjective to some degree so there maybe variations in different data you see.
This week I’m not going to look at them from a regression basis and compare them to goals and assists. While it can be useful with some players to look at over and under performance against the underlying stats, some players will perform way above or below the expected goals. Kane was a great example last season. If you expected regression you would never have got it as he was a lethal finisher. They should just be looked at as a way of evaluating a team or players goal or assist potential.
Team defensive xG
Team attacking xG
Player xG & xA by position
Here’s the player xG and xA by position. It’s done per 90 minutes and only for players have made 180 minutes of appearances
Forwards
The forwards who appear in both are Aguero, Welbeck, Lukaku, Morata, Lacazette and Vardy
Midfielders
The split between assisting midfielders and goal scoring midfielders continues. Only Eriksen and Richarlison appear in both schedule. Eriksen is disappointingly low in the xA schedules and Richarlison is low in both although he is at least fairly budget friendly. It is worth noting again though that things are still fairly changeable at this early stage.
Defenders
As you’d expect to some extent with full backs and central defenders no one is on both schedules. If you’re wondering why Alonso isn’t there, so did I. I had to double check. Incredibly his xA is only 0.05. He is top joint with Ben Davies of best xG for fullbacks at 0.09 but his assist potential is poor. Now as I said things can change quickly with this amount of data but it was a surprise.
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