fantasy premier league expected goals totals

Fantasy Premier League, Player Rankings

Here’s our look at some fantasy premier league expected goals totals to GW28. We look at team stats and individual players by position stats including projected attacking points as well as a points per million calculation. There’s also an xG/xA team at the end as a summary.   The stats don’t include Thursday’s Arsenal v Man City game.

FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE EXPECTED GOALS TOTALS

There’s alot of stats to come so if you’d rather just see the outcome look at the expected goals/assists team at the end. You can also the expected goals tables for GW28 itself in Joseph Crilleys GW28 review




BACKGROUND

Expected goals is a stat where the probability is evaluated that any given shot will end up as a goal.

Expected goals are based on a number of factors, such as where the shot was taken from and where the opposition defenders are at the time. The shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability in the league. To state the obvious , a shot from inside the 6 yard box in front of goal with no defenders around will have a very high probability it will end up as a goal.

In essence it shows you what should have happened rather than what has happened.

The expected goals are now all wholly from the excellent free site understat.com

TEAM RANKINGS FOR DEFENCE AND ATTACK

Here I rank the teams overall for defence and attack and then home and away

TEAM DEFENCE

Ovr Rank HomeAway
1Manchester City11
2Tottenham23
3Chelsea42
4Liverpool34
5Manchester United57
6Arsenal76
7WBA810
8Leicester109
9Brighton118
10Southampton913
11Huddersfield1211
12Burnley1412
13Crystal Palace1314
14Watford195
15Newcastle United1515
16West Ham620
17Everton1716
18Swansea1617
19Stoke1819
20Bournemouth2018

Team Attack

Ovr Rank HomeAway
1Manchester City12
2Liverpool31
3Tottenham43
4Arsenal28
5Manchester United55
6Chelsea74
7Crystal Palace611
8Leicester99
9Watford146
10Newcastle United167
11Southampton812
12Everton1013
13West Ham1710
14Stoke1115
15Brighton1218
16Bournemouth1316
17WBA1519
18Huddersfield1914
19Swansea1820
20Burnley2017

METHOD AND CAVEATS FOR PLAYER RANKINGS

This is just one part of ranking players it’s not the be all and end all. I do a player rankings series which uses more stats than just xG and xA. There’s no filtering here for gametime security or injuries.

Here I have taken the Non penalty xG per 90 minutes (NPxG90) and the xA and converted them into goals and assist points and then total points as if they were playing over the whole season 90 minutes each game. I haven’t added on appearance points, adjusted for average minutes or bonus points or clean sheets for defenders. It’s purely just the goals and assist points. There was a minimum minutes played of 500 minutes. I’ve also added a points per million column.

Players don’t perform on a straight line with the stats. Some like Hazard and De Bruyne have shown they can over perform. Others like Tadic have a history of under performing. I have not tried to adjust for this. That’s more for the player rankings articles.

Don’t concentrate too much on the points. They are principally for ranking purposes. If you wonder why the random numbers of players it’s because I went down to a certain threshold and then it was whatever number of players ended up.

Player Stat abbreviations

Value £m:  The FPL price at the time of the article

NP xG90:  the non penalty expected goals per 90 minutes played

xA90:  the expected assists per 90 minutes played

ProjPts:  the projected attacking points based on the current NPxG90 and xA90 if the player played 38 games 90 minutes in each.  No points for starting,no bonus, no clean sheet points, just goals and assists points.

Pts/£m:  the projected points above per £m value.   This is for Mids and Fwds only.  An average is around 10 and it gives you an indication of value for money.

Defenders attack ranking

Rank TeamValue £mNPxGxAProj Pts
1Sead KolasinacArsenal5.80.100.2147
2Marcos AlonsoChelsea7.20.130.1041
3Victor MosesChelsea6.40.130.0940
4Mamadou SakhoCrystal Palace4.70.150.0338
5Miguel BritosWatford4.30.100.1135
6Scott DannCrystal Palace4.60.150.0135
7James MilnerLiverpool6.00.080.1434
8Virgil van DijkLiverpool5.60.070.1533
9Ben DaviesTottenham5.80.050.1832
10Eric BaillyMan Utd6.00.130.0232
11ZappacostaChelsea5.90.080.1232
12Héctor BellerínArsenal6.00.090.0931
13Joel MatipLiverpool5.40.120.0331
14Ciaran ClarkNewcastle4.40.110.0531
15Andrew RobertsonLiverpool4.80.030.2131
16Craig DawsonWBA4.80.110.0430
17Nacho MonrealArsenal5.70.080.1030
18Maya YoshidaSouthampton4.60.110.0329
19Nicolás OtamendiMan City6.40.110.0227
20Kieran TrippierTottenham5.30.020.2027
21Serge AurierTottenham5.90.030.1726
22van AanholtCrystal Palace5.10.060.1126
23Laurent KoscielnyArsenal6.00.100.0225
24Daryl JanmaatWatford4.80.090.0425
25José HolebasWatford4.80.020.1825
26Dejan LovrenLiverpool5.30.080.0625
27Alexander-ArnoldLiverpool4.30.030.1524
28John StonesMan City5.40.100.0023
29Kevin LongBurnley4.10.030.1423
30Jonny EvansWBA4.90.080.0423
31Kyle WalkerMan City6.60.020.1623
32Harry MaguireLeicester5.50.040.1122
33Ryan BertrandSouthampton5.30.050.0821
34Alfie MawsonSwansea5.10.080.0221
35César AzpilicuetaChelsea7.00.020.1421
36Leighton BainesEverton5.60.030.1119
37Ahmed HegazyWBA4.70.080.0119
38Shane DuffyBrighton4.60.070.0218
39Jeffrey SchluppCrystal Palace4.70.050.0618
40David LuizChelsea5.70.080.0018
41ZankaHuddersfield4.50.070.0117
42Ragnar KlavanLiverpool4.30.070.0117
43Lewis DunkBrighton4.50.070.0117
44Jack StephensSouthampton4.50.070.0117
45Vincent KompanyMan City5.80.070.0117
46Sebastian PrödlWatford4.30.060.0317
47Nathan AkéBournemouth5.00.050.0517

 

Midfield attack ranking

Rank TeamValue £mNPxGxAProj PtsPts/£m
1Mohamed SalahLiverpool10.50.740.2717116.3
2Raheem SterlingMan City8.90.570.3114416.1
3Sadio ManéLiverpool9.40.490.2211812.6
4David SilvaMan City7.90.390.3411314.3
5Alexis SánchezMan Utd11.70.420.281129.5
6Son Heung-MinTottenham8.10.390.3010813.4
7Jesse LingardMan Utd6.10.450.1910717.6
8Aaron RamseyArsenal6.90.400.2610615.3
9Anthony MartialMan Utd8.00.350.3410513.2
10Leroy SanéMan City8.30.270.409711.7
11ArnautovicWest Ham6.90.400.179513.8
12Dele AlliTottenham8.90.310.279010.1
13Paul PogbaMan Utd7.90.350.188711.0
14Mesut ÖzilArsenal9.30.190.41838.9
15Eden HazardChelsea10.70.270.27827.7
16Bernardo SilvaMan City7.40.270.268110.9
17RicharlisonWatford6.10.340.148113.2
18EriksenTottenham9.30.220.34818.7
19WillianChelsea6.80.240.308011.7
20De BruyneMan City10.40.180.39797.6
21Alex IwobiArsenal5.10.270.207414.5
22Wilfried ZahaCrystal Palace6.80.280.157010.3
23Riyad MahrezLeicester8.70.190.26667.6
24MkhitaryanArsenal7.80.110.39658.4
25Choupo-MotingStoke5.40.240.136011.2
26Christian AtsuNewcastle4.80.220.155912.3
27PedroChelsea7.70.240.11587.6
28Cesc FàbregasChelsea6.80.120.31588.6
29PedroChelsea7.70.240.11587.6
30Moussa SissokoTottenham5.30.190.175510.5
31Ox-ChamberlainLiverpool5.60.160.22559.9
32Luciano NarsinghSwansea4.70.190.165411.6
33Dusan TadicSouthampton6.20.160.21548.8
34José IzquierdoBrighton5.90.190.16549.2
35Loftus-CheekCrystal Palace4.40.170.195412.3
36Juan MataMan Utd6.80.140.24547.9
37Chris BruntWBA5.00.050.395410.8
38Ilkay GündoganMan City5.30.160.205310.0
39Xherdan ShaqiriStoke6.20.150.21528.5
40André AyewSwansea6.80.250.04527.7
41Jordon IbeBournemouth4.90.150.195010.2
42Jason PuncheonCrystal Palace4.40.220.075011.3
43Anthony KnockaertBrighton5.50.180.13498.9
44Tom InceHuddersfield5.50.220.05488.6
45Ward-ProwseSouthampton5.10.120.21479.2
46Pascal GroßBrighton5.90.070.29467.9
47Manuel LanziniWest Ham6.60.130.18456.9
48Nathan RedmondSouthampton5.90.100.23457.7

Forwards attack ranking

RankTeamValue £mNPxGxAProj PtsPts/£m
1Gabriel JesusMan City9.90.870.1114514.6
2Sergio AgüeroMan City12.00.720.2914311.9
3Harry KaneTottenham12.90.820.1113710.6
4Charlie AustinSouthampton5.90.730.0311419.4
5Álvaro MorataChelsea10.40.630.1511310.9
6Oumar NiasseEverton4.90.580.1010020.3
7Shinji OkazakiLeicester5.30.590.089918.6
8LacazetteArsenal10.20.510.16969.4
9Romelu LukakuMan Utd11.20.500.15938.3
10Daniel SturridgeWBA7.90.470.158911.2
11Roberto FirminoLiverpool9.30.330.29838.9
12Dwight GayleNewcastle6.10.470.108313.6
13Marcus RashfordMan Utd7.40.310.308111.0
14Danny WelbeckArsenal7.30.420.148010.9
15Andre GrayWatford6.30.420.127812.3
16BentekeCrystal Palace7.60.410.137710.2
17Peter CrouchStoke4.80.260.256814.2
18Jermain DefoeBournemouth7.60.350.07618.1
19ChicharitoWest Ham6.70.340.08619.1
20Tammy AbrahamSwansea5.40.340.076011.0
21Callum WilsonBournemouth6.00.300.09569.3
22Ayoze PérezNewcastle5.20.190.235510.6
23Sam VokesBurnley5.70.260.13549.5
24Steve MounieHuddersfield5.70.280.10549.5
25JoseluNewcastle5.50.300.07549.7
26Glenn MurrayBrighton5.70.320.04539.3
27Jamie VardyLeicester8.70.240.10485.5
28Calvert-LewinEverton5.10.240.10489.4
29Ashley BarnesBurnley5.20.260.05458.7
30Biram DioufStoke5.30.250.06458.5
31Joshua KingBournemouth7.00.180.15446.4
32Collin QuanerHuddersfield4.60.120.22439.4
33Wayne RooneyEverton7.20.210.08415.7
34Salomón RondónWBA6.00.220.05396.5
35Chris WoodBurnley6.20.220.03375.9
36Robson-KanuWBA4.90.210.04367.4
37Troy DeeneyWatford6.30.130.14365.7
38Jay RodriguezWBA5.50.190.05356.3
39Jordan AyewSwansea5.40.180.06346.3
40Andy CarrollWest Ham5.70.180.06346.0
41Shane LongSouthampton5.60.170.07346.0
42Laurent DepoitreHuddersfield5.20.150.08326.1
43Wilfried BonySwansea5.70.190.02315.5
44Tomer HemedBrighton4.70.180.01296.1
45GabbiadiniSouthampton6.20.110.04213.4

 

AN NPXG90 AND XA90 TEAM

So I picked a team of about £106m so not achievable by many. It is just meant to be a player menu.

Injuries, gametime (including consistent early substitution risk) are a filtering factor as was a team structure of:

2 cheap GKs picked by defensive strength

3 premium defenders. 2 cheap defs  picked by defensive strength

2 premium mids. 2 cheaper mids and 1 around £4.5m

2 premium forwards and 1 cheap forward

Here’s the team:




fantasy premier league expected goals totals

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