Here’s our look at some fantasy premier league expected goals totals to GW28. We look at team stats and individual players by position stats including projected attacking points as well as a points per million calculation. There’s also an xG/xA team at the end as a summary. The stats don’t include Thursday’s Arsenal v Man City game.
FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE EXPECTED GOALS TOTALS
There’s alot of stats to come so if you’d rather just see the outcome look at the expected goals/assists team at the end. You can also the expected goals tables for GW28 itself in Joseph Crilleys GW28 review
BACKGROUND
Expected goals is a stat where the probability is evaluated that any given shot will end up as a goal.
Expected goals are based on a number of factors, such as where the shot was taken from and where the opposition defenders are at the time. The shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability in the league. To state the obvious , a shot from inside the 6 yard box in front of goal with no defenders around will have a very high probability it will end up as a goal.
In essence it shows you what should have happened rather than what has happened.
The expected goals are now all wholly from the excellent free site understat.com
TEAM RANKINGS FOR DEFENCE AND ATTACK
Here I rank the teams overall for defence and attack and then home and away
TEAM DEFENCE
Ovr Rank | Home | Away | |
1 | Manchester City | 1 | 1 |
2 | Tottenham | 2 | 3 |
3 | Chelsea | 4 | 2 |
4 | Liverpool | 3 | 4 |
5 | Manchester United | 5 | 7 |
6 | Arsenal | 7 | 6 |
7 | WBA | 8 | 10 |
8 | Leicester | 10 | 9 |
9 | Brighton | 11 | 8 |
10 | Southampton | 9 | 13 |
11 | Huddersfield | 12 | 11 |
12 | Burnley | 14 | 12 |
13 | Crystal Palace | 13 | 14 |
14 | Watford | 19 | 5 |
15 | Newcastle United | 15 | 15 |
16 | West Ham | 6 | 20 |
17 | Everton | 17 | 16 |
18 | Swansea | 16 | 17 |
19 | Stoke | 18 | 19 |
20 | Bournemouth | 20 | 18 |
Team Attack
Ovr Rank | Home | Away | |
1 | Manchester City | 1 | 2 |
2 | Liverpool | 3 | 1 |
3 | Tottenham | 4 | 3 |
4 | Arsenal | 2 | 8 |
5 | Manchester United | 5 | 5 |
6 | Chelsea | 7 | 4 |
7 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 11 |
8 | Leicester | 9 | 9 |
9 | Watford | 14 | 6 |
10 | Newcastle United | 16 | 7 |
11 | Southampton | 8 | 12 |
12 | Everton | 10 | 13 |
13 | West Ham | 17 | 10 |
14 | Stoke | 11 | 15 |
15 | Brighton | 12 | 18 |
16 | Bournemouth | 13 | 16 |
17 | WBA | 15 | 19 |
18 | Huddersfield | 19 | 14 |
19 | Swansea | 18 | 20 |
20 | Burnley | 20 | 17 |
METHOD AND CAVEATS FOR PLAYER RANKINGS
This is just one part of ranking players it’s not the be all and end all. I do a player rankings series which uses more stats than just xG and xA. There’s no filtering here for gametime security or injuries.
Here I have taken the Non penalty xG per 90 minutes (NPxG90) and the xA and converted them into goals and assist points and then total points as if they were playing over the whole season 90 minutes each game. I haven’t added on appearance points, adjusted for average minutes or bonus points or clean sheets for defenders. It’s purely just the goals and assist points. There was a minimum minutes played of 500 minutes. I’ve also added a points per million column.
Players don’t perform on a straight line with the stats. Some like Hazard and De Bruyne have shown they can over perform. Others like Tadic have a history of under performing. I have not tried to adjust for this. That’s more for the player rankings articles.
Don’t concentrate too much on the points. They are principally for ranking purposes. If you wonder why the random numbers of players it’s because I went down to a certain threshold and then it was whatever number of players ended up.
Player Stat abbreviations
Value £m: The FPL price at the time of the article
NP xG90: the non penalty expected goals per 90 minutes played
xA90: the expected assists per 90 minutes played
ProjPts: the projected attacking points based on the current NPxG90 and xA90 if the player played 38 games 90 minutes in each. No points for starting,no bonus, no clean sheet points, just goals and assists points.
Pts/£m: the projected points above per £m value. This is for Mids and Fwds only. An average is around 10 and it gives you an indication of value for money.
Defenders attack ranking
Rank | Team | Value £m | NPxG | xA | Proj Pts | |
1 | Sead Kolasinac | Arsenal | 5.8 | 0.10 | 0.21 | 47 |
2 | Marcos Alonso | Chelsea | 7.2 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 41 |
3 | Victor Moses | Chelsea | 6.4 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 40 |
4 | Mamadou Sakho | Crystal Palace | 4.7 | 0.15 | 0.03 | 38 |
5 | Miguel Britos | Watford | 4.3 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 35 |
6 | Scott Dann | Crystal Palace | 4.6 | 0.15 | 0.01 | 35 |
7 | James Milner | Liverpool | 6.0 | 0.08 | 0.14 | 34 |
8 | Virgil van Dijk | Liverpool | 5.6 | 0.07 | 0.15 | 33 |
9 | Ben Davies | Tottenham | 5.8 | 0.05 | 0.18 | 32 |
10 | Eric Bailly | Man Utd | 6.0 | 0.13 | 0.02 | 32 |
11 | Zappacosta | Chelsea | 5.9 | 0.08 | 0.12 | 32 |
12 | Héctor Bellerín | Arsenal | 6.0 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 31 |
13 | Joel Matip | Liverpool | 5.4 | 0.12 | 0.03 | 31 |
14 | Ciaran Clark | Newcastle | 4.4 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 31 |
15 | Andrew Robertson | Liverpool | 4.8 | 0.03 | 0.21 | 31 |
16 | Craig Dawson | WBA | 4.8 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 30 |
17 | Nacho Monreal | Arsenal | 5.7 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 30 |
18 | Maya Yoshida | Southampton | 4.6 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 29 |
19 | Nicolás Otamendi | Man City | 6.4 | 0.11 | 0.02 | 27 |
20 | Kieran Trippier | Tottenham | 5.3 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 27 |
21 | Serge Aurier | Tottenham | 5.9 | 0.03 | 0.17 | 26 |
22 | van Aanholt | Crystal Palace | 5.1 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 26 |
23 | Laurent Koscielny | Arsenal | 6.0 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 25 |
24 | Daryl Janmaat | Watford | 4.8 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 25 |
25 | José Holebas | Watford | 4.8 | 0.02 | 0.18 | 25 |
26 | Dejan Lovren | Liverpool | 5.3 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 25 |
27 | Alexander-Arnold | Liverpool | 4.3 | 0.03 | 0.15 | 24 |
28 | John Stones | Man City | 5.4 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 23 |
29 | Kevin Long | Burnley | 4.1 | 0.03 | 0.14 | 23 |
30 | Jonny Evans | WBA | 4.9 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 23 |
31 | Kyle Walker | Man City | 6.6 | 0.02 | 0.16 | 23 |
32 | Harry Maguire | Leicester | 5.5 | 0.04 | 0.11 | 22 |
33 | Ryan Bertrand | Southampton | 5.3 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 21 |
34 | Alfie Mawson | Swansea | 5.1 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 21 |
35 | César Azpilicueta | Chelsea | 7.0 | 0.02 | 0.14 | 21 |
36 | Leighton Baines | Everton | 5.6 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 19 |
37 | Ahmed Hegazy | WBA | 4.7 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 19 |
38 | Shane Duffy | Brighton | 4.6 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 18 |
39 | Jeffrey Schlupp | Crystal Palace | 4.7 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 18 |
40 | David Luiz | Chelsea | 5.7 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 18 |
41 | Zanka | Huddersfield | 4.5 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 17 |
42 | Ragnar Klavan | Liverpool | 4.3 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 17 |
43 | Lewis Dunk | Brighton | 4.5 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 17 |
44 | Jack Stephens | Southampton | 4.5 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 17 |
45 | Vincent Kompany | Man City | 5.8 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 17 |
46 | Sebastian Prödl | Watford | 4.3 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 17 |
47 | Nathan Aké | Bournemouth | 5.0 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 17 |
Midfield attack ranking
Rank | Team | Value £m | NPxG | xA | Proj Pts | Pts/£m | |
1 | Mohamed Salah | Liverpool | 10.5 | 0.74 | 0.27 | 171 | 16.3 |
2 | Raheem Sterling | Man City | 8.9 | 0.57 | 0.31 | 144 | 16.1 |
3 | Sadio Mané | Liverpool | 9.4 | 0.49 | 0.22 | 118 | 12.6 |
4 | David Silva | Man City | 7.9 | 0.39 | 0.34 | 113 | 14.3 |
5 | Alexis Sánchez | Man Utd | 11.7 | 0.42 | 0.28 | 112 | 9.5 |
6 | Son Heung-Min | Tottenham | 8.1 | 0.39 | 0.30 | 108 | 13.4 |
7 | Jesse Lingard | Man Utd | 6.1 | 0.45 | 0.19 | 107 | 17.6 |
8 | Aaron Ramsey | Arsenal | 6.9 | 0.40 | 0.26 | 106 | 15.3 |
9 | Anthony Martial | Man Utd | 8.0 | 0.35 | 0.34 | 105 | 13.2 |
10 | Leroy Sané | Man City | 8.3 | 0.27 | 0.40 | 97 | 11.7 |
11 | Arnautovic | West Ham | 6.9 | 0.40 | 0.17 | 95 | 13.8 |
12 | Dele Alli | Tottenham | 8.9 | 0.31 | 0.27 | 90 | 10.1 |
13 | Paul Pogba | Man Utd | 7.9 | 0.35 | 0.18 | 87 | 11.0 |
14 | Mesut Özil | Arsenal | 9.3 | 0.19 | 0.41 | 83 | 8.9 |
15 | Eden Hazard | Chelsea | 10.7 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 82 | 7.7 |
16 | Bernardo Silva | Man City | 7.4 | 0.27 | 0.26 | 81 | 10.9 |
17 | Richarlison | Watford | 6.1 | 0.34 | 0.14 | 81 | 13.2 |
18 | Eriksen | Tottenham | 9.3 | 0.22 | 0.34 | 81 | 8.7 |
19 | Willian | Chelsea | 6.8 | 0.24 | 0.30 | 80 | 11.7 |
20 | De Bruyne | Man City | 10.4 | 0.18 | 0.39 | 79 | 7.6 |
21 | Alex Iwobi | Arsenal | 5.1 | 0.27 | 0.20 | 74 | 14.5 |
22 | Wilfried Zaha | Crystal Palace | 6.8 | 0.28 | 0.15 | 70 | 10.3 |
23 | Riyad Mahrez | Leicester | 8.7 | 0.19 | 0.26 | 66 | 7.6 |
24 | Mkhitaryan | Arsenal | 7.8 | 0.11 | 0.39 | 65 | 8.4 |
25 | Choupo-Moting | Stoke | 5.4 | 0.24 | 0.13 | 60 | 11.2 |
26 | Christian Atsu | Newcastle | 4.8 | 0.22 | 0.15 | 59 | 12.3 |
27 | Pedro | Chelsea | 7.7 | 0.24 | 0.11 | 58 | 7.6 |
28 | Cesc Fàbregas | Chelsea | 6.8 | 0.12 | 0.31 | 58 | 8.6 |
29 | Pedro | Chelsea | 7.7 | 0.24 | 0.11 | 58 | 7.6 |
30 | Moussa Sissoko | Tottenham | 5.3 | 0.19 | 0.17 | 55 | 10.5 |
31 | Ox-Chamberlain | Liverpool | 5.6 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 55 | 9.9 |
32 | Luciano Narsingh | Swansea | 4.7 | 0.19 | 0.16 | 54 | 11.6 |
33 | Dusan Tadic | Southampton | 6.2 | 0.16 | 0.21 | 54 | 8.8 |
34 | José Izquierdo | Brighton | 5.9 | 0.19 | 0.16 | 54 | 9.2 |
35 | Loftus-Cheek | Crystal Palace | 4.4 | 0.17 | 0.19 | 54 | 12.3 |
36 | Juan Mata | Man Utd | 6.8 | 0.14 | 0.24 | 54 | 7.9 |
37 | Chris Brunt | WBA | 5.0 | 0.05 | 0.39 | 54 | 10.8 |
38 | Ilkay Gündogan | Man City | 5.3 | 0.16 | 0.20 | 53 | 10.0 |
39 | Xherdan Shaqiri | Stoke | 6.2 | 0.15 | 0.21 | 52 | 8.5 |
40 | André Ayew | Swansea | 6.8 | 0.25 | 0.04 | 52 | 7.7 |
41 | Jordon Ibe | Bournemouth | 4.9 | 0.15 | 0.19 | 50 | 10.2 |
42 | Jason Puncheon | Crystal Palace | 4.4 | 0.22 | 0.07 | 50 | 11.3 |
43 | Anthony Knockaert | Brighton | 5.5 | 0.18 | 0.13 | 49 | 8.9 |
44 | Tom Ince | Huddersfield | 5.5 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 48 | 8.6 |
45 | Ward-Prowse | Southampton | 5.1 | 0.12 | 0.21 | 47 | 9.2 |
46 | Pascal Groß | Brighton | 5.9 | 0.07 | 0.29 | 46 | 7.9 |
47 | Manuel Lanzini | West Ham | 6.6 | 0.13 | 0.18 | 45 | 6.9 |
48 | Nathan Redmond | Southampton | 5.9 | 0.10 | 0.23 | 45 | 7.7 |
Forwards attack ranking
Rank | Team | Value £m | NPxG | xA | Proj Pts | Pts/£m | |
1 | Gabriel Jesus | Man City | 9.9 | 0.87 | 0.11 | 145 | 14.6 |
2 | Sergio Agüero | Man City | 12.0 | 0.72 | 0.29 | 143 | 11.9 |
3 | Harry Kane | Tottenham | 12.9 | 0.82 | 0.11 | 137 | 10.6 |
4 | Charlie Austin | Southampton | 5.9 | 0.73 | 0.03 | 114 | 19.4 |
5 | Álvaro Morata | Chelsea | 10.4 | 0.63 | 0.15 | 113 | 10.9 |
6 | Oumar Niasse | Everton | 4.9 | 0.58 | 0.10 | 100 | 20.3 |
7 | Shinji Okazaki | Leicester | 5.3 | 0.59 | 0.08 | 99 | 18.6 |
8 | Lacazette | Arsenal | 10.2 | 0.51 | 0.16 | 96 | 9.4 |
9 | Romelu Lukaku | Man Utd | 11.2 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 93 | 8.3 |
10 | Daniel Sturridge | WBA | 7.9 | 0.47 | 0.15 | 89 | 11.2 |
11 | Roberto Firmino | Liverpool | 9.3 | 0.33 | 0.29 | 83 | 8.9 |
12 | Dwight Gayle | Newcastle | 6.1 | 0.47 | 0.10 | 83 | 13.6 |
13 | Marcus Rashford | Man Utd | 7.4 | 0.31 | 0.30 | 81 | 11.0 |
14 | Danny Welbeck | Arsenal | 7.3 | 0.42 | 0.14 | 80 | 10.9 |
15 | Andre Gray | Watford | 6.3 | 0.42 | 0.12 | 78 | 12.3 |
16 | Benteke | Crystal Palace | 7.6 | 0.41 | 0.13 | 77 | 10.2 |
17 | Peter Crouch | Stoke | 4.8 | 0.26 | 0.25 | 68 | 14.2 |
18 | Jermain Defoe | Bournemouth | 7.6 | 0.35 | 0.07 | 61 | 8.1 |
19 | Chicharito | West Ham | 6.7 | 0.34 | 0.08 | 61 | 9.1 |
20 | Tammy Abraham | Swansea | 5.4 | 0.34 | 0.07 | 60 | 11.0 |
21 | Callum Wilson | Bournemouth | 6.0 | 0.30 | 0.09 | 56 | 9.3 |
22 | Ayoze Pérez | Newcastle | 5.2 | 0.19 | 0.23 | 55 | 10.6 |
23 | Sam Vokes | Burnley | 5.7 | 0.26 | 0.13 | 54 | 9.5 |
24 | Steve Mounie | Huddersfield | 5.7 | 0.28 | 0.10 | 54 | 9.5 |
25 | Joselu | Newcastle | 5.5 | 0.30 | 0.07 | 54 | 9.7 |
26 | Glenn Murray | Brighton | 5.7 | 0.32 | 0.04 | 53 | 9.3 |
27 | Jamie Vardy | Leicester | 8.7 | 0.24 | 0.10 | 48 | 5.5 |
28 | Calvert-Lewin | Everton | 5.1 | 0.24 | 0.10 | 48 | 9.4 |
29 | Ashley Barnes | Burnley | 5.2 | 0.26 | 0.05 | 45 | 8.7 |
30 | Biram Diouf | Stoke | 5.3 | 0.25 | 0.06 | 45 | 8.5 |
31 | Joshua King | Bournemouth | 7.0 | 0.18 | 0.15 | 44 | 6.4 |
32 | Collin Quaner | Huddersfield | 4.6 | 0.12 | 0.22 | 43 | 9.4 |
33 | Wayne Rooney | Everton | 7.2 | 0.21 | 0.08 | 41 | 5.7 |
34 | Salomón Rondón | WBA | 6.0 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 39 | 6.5 |
35 | Chris Wood | Burnley | 6.2 | 0.22 | 0.03 | 37 | 5.9 |
36 | Robson-Kanu | WBA | 4.9 | 0.21 | 0.04 | 36 | 7.4 |
37 | Troy Deeney | Watford | 6.3 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 36 | 5.7 |
38 | Jay Rodriguez | WBA | 5.5 | 0.19 | 0.05 | 35 | 6.3 |
39 | Jordan Ayew | Swansea | 5.4 | 0.18 | 0.06 | 34 | 6.3 |
40 | Andy Carroll | West Ham | 5.7 | 0.18 | 0.06 | 34 | 6.0 |
41 | Shane Long | Southampton | 5.6 | 0.17 | 0.07 | 34 | 6.0 |
42 | Laurent Depoitre | Huddersfield | 5.2 | 0.15 | 0.08 | 32 | 6.1 |
43 | Wilfried Bony | Swansea | 5.7 | 0.19 | 0.02 | 31 | 5.5 |
44 | Tomer Hemed | Brighton | 4.7 | 0.18 | 0.01 | 29 | 6.1 |
45 | Gabbiadini | Southampton | 6.2 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 21 | 3.4 |
AN NPXG90 AND XA90 TEAM
So I picked a team of about £106m so not achievable by many. It is just meant to be a player menu.
Injuries, gametime (including consistent early substitution risk) are a filtering factor as was a team structure of:
2 cheap GKs picked by defensive strength
3 premium defenders. 2 cheap defs picked by defensive strength
2 premium mids. 2 cheaper mids and 1 around £4.5m
2 premium forwards and 1 cheap forward
Here’s the team:
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