Here’s our fantasy premier league forward player rankings article GW1. There’s a range of stats plus commentary on each and their early fixtures
fantasy premier league forward player rankings GW1
This article updates our preseason article earlier on forwards due to further information from pre-season. This is the 4th player rankings article. Here’s links to the 3 others:
Midfielders at £7.0m and above
13k overall rank finisher last season Joseph Crilley has also done an excellent article on budget forwards
Firstly there’s a table of stats. Then there’s a bit of brief commentary on each player and their first 6 fixtures
STATS DEFINITIONS
Fixt Ease: The ease of the mentioned fixture range from an attacking perspective. See our GW1 fixture ease article
Mins per FPL pt: How long it took to earn an FPL point in 16/17. The lower the better
Mins per G/A: the amount of time it took to get a goal or assist in 16/17
SOT per 90: The shots on target per 90 minutes from 16/17. Info from whoscored.com
ATGS odds: A bookies odds for anytime goal scorer for GW1. Remember they assume the player starts and no account is taken of assist potential
THE TABLE
I’ve ranked the players in the order that I see them. However there’s enough info for you to make an assessment. Remember if they’re not on the table they could well be in the monitor list below
* Played in a different team in the premier league in 16/17
** Played for a team outside the premier league last season
* and ** will be clarified in the narrative for the individual player
KANE
There will be few FPL managers who can forget his 7 goals and an assist and 41 FPL points in Spurs last 2 games of the season. It was a brutal reminder of his scoring efficiency and the fact that he isn’t just a “homer” as some people present him.
Add to his consistency he was also explosive, scoring 10+ FPL points in 30% of his appearances. He also never went more than 3 consecutive games without returning a goal or assist. The negatives pointed against him are a history of slow starts. However even last season before he got injured he returned in 3 of his first 5 games totalling 2 goals and an assist. The games he didn’t return in were against Liverpool and Everton. Hardly crime of the century. The other negative portrayed against him is the Wembley factor. Joseph Crilley in his Spurs prospects article makes some interesting mitigation points on that front. Kane also has penalty and some direct free kick responsibilities. No striker had better shots on target stats. His only weaknesses is that his shots in the box stats could have been better.
Kane has had a reasonable start to pre-season and Spurs have gone someway to dealing with the Wembley issue with a good win over Juventus
First 6 fixtures:
Newcastle (A)
Chelsea (H)
Burnley (H)
Everton (A)
Swansea (H)
West Ham (A)
LUKAKU
Stats from last season were when he was at Everton. Despite what I said about Kane, the last person I would remove from my team at the moment is Lukaku. He’s has the highest ownership stats at around 50% of any player in the game, has great fixtures and the ability to hit any amount of goals in 1 game when in the zone. He is just too scary not to own in my view. Underlying stats could be better though. Could easily get penalty duties.
Has had a good pre-season. Again, huge ownership and a big captain favourite for GW1 makes him a very dangerous player not to own.
First 6 fixtures:
West Ham (H)
Swansea (A)
Leicester (H)
Stoke (A)
Everton (H)
Southampton (A)
JESUS
He may have had the rub of the green on fixtures after joining but the stats are quite frankly fantastic. The underlying ones are pretty good too. He’s almost the mirror image of Aguero though. Let him lead the line I’m sure he will score. However if he’s stuck out on the right, even in a virtual front 3, like he was in the last game against Watford it isn’t ideal for £10.5m. So as for Aguero really. It’s just what Pep does with him that will be crucial.
Has had a reasonable pre-season in the context of Man City having a very good one. However the issue of position and formations has been unclear . What is clear though is that he still seems a big Pep favourite.
First 6 fixtures:
Brighton (A)
Everton (H)
Bournemouth (A)
Liverpool (H)
Watford (A)
Crystal Palace (H)
AGUERO
It could only be called a disappointing season for Aguero and even with the price reduction, on those stats he doesn’t look great value. However only Kane had better shots on target stats than him and no forward had better shots in the 6 yard box or shots in the box stats. He had the chances he just wasn’t as clinical. Given the chances again I can’t seem him being as wayward. Given the CF position and gametime he will return.
However Pep is the cloud hanging over him. Where and how much he plays is the big question. For this money you want him leading the line and playing 90 minutes if not every game, virtually every game. No matter how much Pep preaches love for Aguero you know it’s just public relations. It’s not even certain if he will keep penalties although at least with Yaya falling down the pecking order that should limit one competitor for the responsibility. Fixtures are pretty good although City on their day can destroy any team
Pre-season has been successful but there have been a lot of gametime negative signals mixed in with the good ones. Only time will tell whether he will be rotated more than most.
First 6 fixtures:
Brighton (A)
Everton (H)
Bournemouth (A)
Liverpool (H)
Watford (A)
Crystal Palace (H
LACAZETTE
Now Lacazette doesn’t come with the gametime and goal scoring risks I mentioned above that Morata does. His main risk will be the adjustment from League 1 in France for Lyon to the premier league with Arsenal. I scoured through all his Champions League and Europa League games to see if I could glean anything from games against premier league opposition. However, I could only find a 2 legged game against Spurs in 2013 where he blanked both games playing on the right wing. So no help there.
You certainly can’t fault his returns or his underlying stats. The only risk is the different league. You can read more about him in my player focus article. He could easily get penalty duties having converted 10 last season.
I have had him in my team at various points with one of the reasons being the potential captain issue due to lack of alternatives in GW4. You can see more in my captain planning article.
First 6 fixtures:
Leicester (H)
Stoke (A)
Liverpool (A)
Bournemouth (H)
Chelsea (A)
West Brom (H)
FIRMINO
Reclassified as a forward after being a false 9 midfielder for much of the season last season. Probably about the right price for the prospective returns. The questions is whether he consistently plays as a striker. Klopp has talked up Solanke and Sturridge in pre-season although how seriously you take that is another thing. At least now with Salah joining 1 injury won’t guarantee him being shunted out to the right while Origi or Sturridge/Solanke take the CF role. Underlying stats are ok. Fixtures are good. Klopp has also talked up rotation to add to the potential risk. It’s just with the good fixtures to start if you’re going to take the plunge now’s the time.
First 6 fixtures:
Watford (A)
Crystal Palace (H)
Arsenal (H)
Man City (A)
Burnley (H)
Leicester (A)
BENTEKE
With the cheaper strikers I’ve concentrated on those with good early fixtures and Benteke is certainly one of those. Last season was a big disappointment. His returns, underlying stats and consistency were all pretty poor to say the least. How he justified a price hike is beyond me. On last season’s returns he’s easily the worst in my value calculation.
This is all about some good fixtures and a belief in his basic talent
First 6 fixtures:
Huddersfield (H)
Liverpool (A)
Swansea (H)
Burnley (A)
Southampton (H)
Man City (A)
GAYLE
It says something about the state of the cheap strikers that Gayle leads the list at the moment. The uncertainty over Austin vs Gabbiadini has put a big hole in that part of the game. However the Newcastle striker if nothing else has good fixtures after the Spurs game to gamble with. He produced excellent returns in the Championship for them last season. Unless Benetiz buys a new forward I would also say his gametime should be secure. The main negative is his previous premier league experience which was seriously nothing to write home about. You can see more detail in my article Gayle vs Mounie vs Murray
First 6 fixtures:
Spurs (H)
Huddersfield (A)
West Ham (H)
Swansea (A)
Stoke (H)
Brighton (A
MOUNIE
Like Lacazette Mounie is hard to judge due to the transition of playing for Montpellier in the French league to the relegation favourites of the premier league. His returns were ok as were his underlying stats. Certainly the fixtures are good. It’s just that transition risk and the unknown of how Huddersfield will perform. As for Gayle you can see more detail in my article Gayle vs Mounie vs Murray
Has had a very good pre-season although that is not always meaningful.
First 6 fixtures:
Crystal Palace (A)
Newcastle (H)
Southampton (H)
West Ham (A)
Leicester (H)
Burnley (A)
VARDY
After the disaster that was Ranieri’s 2nd season ended Vardy perked up and the return to the title winning philosphy turned around his season too. 8 goals and 5 assists in the last 13 games was some recovery. He returned in 10 of those games only blanking in games against Arsenal, Man City and Spurs.
This low ranking is more about the fixtures which are pretty tough. Also how if any his role changes with Iheanacho joining
First 6 fixtures:
Arsenal (A)
Brighton (H)
Man Utd (A)
Chelsea (H)
Huddersfield (A)
Liverpool (H)
Who’s come off the list since last time?
Morata, Vokes and Murray – due to uncertainty over gametime
King and Defoe as I wanted to keep the cheap strikers to those with the best fixtures
Rooney over positional uncertainty
Who’s not on the list?
Rodriguez – I don’t like the fact that at the moment he’s unlikely to be the CF but effectively a CAM.
Iheanacho – I’m not sure how he will adjust to the Okazaki role of withdrawn scrapper or whether it will be changed for him. Fixtures also aren’t good.
Gabbiadini and Austin for the uncertainty over the CF Southampton role
Sandro Ramirez of Everton. Fixtures
Llorente and Abraham – Abraham looks like he could be just short term until Llorente comes back from injury.
Hernandez of West Ham – Fixtures
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