FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE FORWARD PLAYER RANKINGS

Fantasy Premier League, Player Rankings

Here’s our fantasy premier league forward player rankings article. There’s a range of stats plus commentary on each and their early fixtures

FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE FORWARD PLAYER RANKINGS

This is the 3rd player rankings article. Here’s links to the 2 others:

Defenders and GKs

Midfielders at £7.0m and above

Midfielders at £6.5m or below

Firstly there’s a table of stats. Then there’s a bit of brief commentary on each player. After that there’s a list of players on a watchlist where more pre-season info is required

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STATS DEFINITIONS

Fixt Ease: The ease of the mentioned fixture range from an attacking perspective. See our GW1 fixture ease article

Mins per FPL pt: How long it took to earn an FPL point in 16/17. The lower the better

Mins per G/A: the amount of time it took to get a goal or assist in 16/17

Consistency %: The percentage of games that the player obtained a goal or assist in 16/17. Subject to a minimum minutes threshold

SOT per 90: The shots on target per 90 minutes from 16/17. Info from whoscored.com

Value rating: My assessment of their value for the points earned in 16/17 for the minutes played for the 17/18 price. The lower the better 1.54 is the average

* Played in a different team in the premier league in 16/17

** Played for a team outside the premier league last season

* and ** will be clarified in the narrative for the individual player




THE TABLE

I’ve ranked the players in the order that I see them. However there’s enough info for you to make an assessment. Remember if they’re not on the table they could well be in the monitor list below

fantasy premier league forward player rankings

Kane

There will be few FPL managers who can forget his 7 goals and an assist and 41 FPL points in Spurs last 2 games of the season.  It was a brutal reminder of his scoring efficiency and the fact that he isn’t just a “homer” as some people present him.

Add to his consistency he was also explosive, scoring 10+ FPL points in 30% of his appearances.  He also never went more than 3 consecutive games without returning a goal or assist.  The negatives pointed against him are a history of slow starts.  However even last season before he got injured he returned in 3 of his first 5 games totalling 2 gaols and an assist.  The games he didn’t return in were against Liverpool and Everton.  Hardly crime of the century.  The other negative portrayed against him is the Wembley factor.  Joseph Crilley in his Spurs prospects article makes some interesting mitigation points on that front.  Kane also has penalty and some direct free kick responsibilities.  No striker had better shots on target stats.  His only weaknesses is that his shots in the box stats could have been better.

First 6 fixtures:

Newcastle (A)
Chelsea (H)
Burnley (H)
Everton (A)
Swansea (H)
West Ham (A)

Lukaku

Stats from last season were when he was at Everton.  Despite what I said about Kane, the last person I would remove from my team at the moment is Lukaku.  He’s has the highest ownership stats at 48% of any player in the game, has great fixtures and the ability to hit any amount of goals in 1 game when in the zone.  He is just too scary not to own in my view.  Underlying stats could be better though.  Could easily get penalty duties.

First 6 fixtures:

West Ham (H)
Swansea (A)
Leicester (H)
Stoke (A)
Everton (H)
Southampton (A)

Aguero

It  could only be called a disappointing season for Aguero and even with the price reduction, on those stats he doesn’t look great value.  However only Kane had better shots on target stats than him and no forward had better shots in the 6 yard box or shots in the box stats.  He had the chances he just wasn’t as clinical.  Given the chances again I can’t seem him being as wayward. Given the CF position and gametime he will return.

However Pep is the cloud hanging over him.  Where and how much he plays is the big question.  For this money you want him leading the line and playing 90 minutes if not every game, virtually every game.  No matter how much Pep preaches love for Aguero you know it’s just public relations.  It’s not even certain if he will keep penalties although at least with Yaya falling down the pecking order that should limit one competitor for the responsibility.  Fixtures are pretty good although City on their day can destroy any team

First 6 fixtures:

Brighton (A)
Everton (H)
Bournemouth (A)
Liverpool (H)
Watford (A)
Crystal Palace (H)

Jesus

He may have had the rub of the green on fixtures after joining but the stats are quite frankly fantastic.  The underlying ones are pretty good too.  He’s almost the mirror image of Aguero though.  Let him lead the line I’m sure he will score.  However if he’s stuck out on the right, even in a virtual front 3, like he was in the last game against Watford it isn’t ideal for £10.5m.  So as for Aguero really.  It’s just what Pep does with him that will be crucial.  Man City season ticket holder David Brown talks about City in more detail in his Man City  prospects article

First 6 fixtures:

Brighton (A)
Everton (H)
Bournemouth (A)
Liverpool (H)
Watford (A)
Crystal Palace (H)

Morata

Morata’s stats above came from playing for Real Madrid last season.

When you analyse the stats on a per minute basis they look fantastic.  They’re also fantastic for the 3 years prior to that.  The worst of those 4 seasons being a goal or assist every 101 minutes.

However there are risk areas.  The first is that he has played half his games each of those seasons as a sub, never got to 20 starts in the league or got to 2000 league minutes played.  Whats more, in those 3 seasons before the last he didn’t get to 10 goals.  Now I’m not saying he hasn’t got the stats to get there it’s just that this season leading the line for Chelsea as the main man in a new league is going to be very different than the last 4 seasons.  The opening schedule, apart from GW1,  doesn’t make it any easier.

First 6 fixtures:

Burnley (H)
Spurs (A)
Everton (H)
Leicester (A)
Arsenal (H)
Stoke (A)

Lacazette

Now Lacazette doesn’t come with the gametime and goal scoring risks I mentioned above that Morata does.  His main risk will be the adjustment from League 1 in France for Lyon to the premier league with Arsenal.  I scoured through all his Champions League and Europa League games to see if I could glean anything from games against premier league opposition.  However, I could only find a 2 legged game against Spurs in 2013 where he blanked both games playing on the right wing.  So no help there.

You certainly can’t fault his returns or his underlying stats.  The only risk is the different league.  You can read more about him in my player focus article.  He could easily get penalty duties having converted 10 last season.

I said I had him in my team with one of the reasons being the potential captain issue due to  lack of alternatives in GW4. You can see more in my captain planning article.

First 6 fixtures:

Leicester (H)
Stoke (A)
Liverpool (A)
Bournemouth (H)
Chelsea (A)
West Brom (H)

Firmino

Reclassified as a forward after bebing a false 9 midfielder for much of the season last season.  Probably about the right price for the prospective returns.  The questions is whether he consistently plays as a striker.  Klopp has talked up Solanke and Sturridge in pre-season although how seriously you take that is another thing.  At least now with Salah joing 1 injury won’t guarantee him being shunted out to the right while Origi or Sturridge/Solanke take the CF role.  Underlying stats are ok.  Fixtures are good.  Klopp has also talked up rotation to add to the potential risk.  It’s just with the good fixtures to start if you’re going to take the plunge now’s the time.

First 6 fixtures:

Watford (A)
Crystal Palace (H)
Arsenal (H)
Man City (A)
Burnley (H)
Leicester (A)

Benteke

Last season was a big disappointment.  His returns, underlying stats and consistency were all pretty poor to say the least.  How he justified a price hike is beyond me.  On last season’s returns he’s easily the worst in my value calculation.

This is all about some good fixtures and a belief in his basic talent

First 6 fixtures:

Huddersfield (H)
Liverpool (A)
Swansea (H)
Burnley (A)
Southampton (H)
Man City (A)

Gayle

The Newcastle striker produced excellent returns in the Championship for them last season.  Unless Benetiz buys a new forward I would also say his gametime should be secure.  The fixtures are also good.  The main negative is his previous premier league experience which was seriously nothing to write home about.  You can see more detail in my article Gayle vs Mounie vs Murray

First 6 fixtures:

Spurs (H)
Huddersfield (A)
West Ham (H)
Swansea (A)
Stoke (H)
Brighton (A)




Mounie

Like Lacazette Mounie is hard to judge due to the transition of playing for Montpellier in the French league to the relegation favourites of the premier league.  His returns were ok as were his underlying stats.  Certainly the fixtures are good.  It’s just that transition risk and the unknown of how Huddersfield will perform.  You can see more detail in my article Gayle vs Mounie vs Murray

First 6 fixtures:

Crystal Palace (A)
Newcastle (H)
Southampton (H)
West Ham (A)
Leicester (H)
Burnley (A)

Vardy

After the disaster that was Ranieri’s 2nd season ended Vardy perked up and the return to the title winning philosphy turned around his season too.  8 goals and 5 assists in the last 13 games was some recovery.  He returned in 10 of those games only blanking in games against Arsenal, Man City and Spurs.

This low ranking is more about the fixtures which are pretty tough.  Also how if any his role changes when, as looks likely, Iheanacho signs.

First 6 fixtures:

Arsenal (A)
Brighton (H)
Man Utd (A)
Chelsea (H)
Huddersfield (A)
Liverpool (H)

Josh King

Last years cheapie midfield sensation is now classified as a striker.  Even with the price hike he still looks ok value.  The question becomes how new boy Defoe changes his role.  Defoe for a start will certainly take back penalties.  Ideally you’d want King as a pair with Defoe as opposed to a deeper number 10.  Whatever the case Defoe will be looking to occupy the area known as tap in central.  Definitely showed ability though last season so the basic ability still makes you optimistic

First 6 fixtures:

West Brom (A)
Watford (H)
Man City (H)
Arsenal (A)
Brighton (H)
Everton (A)

Rooney

If Rooney plays as a CF and gets pens and some set pieces then he could be a bargain.  If he plays as a number 10 or even worse as a CM then it’s a potential disaster.  The good thing in some ways is that the fixtures are terrible so a wait and see approach can govern the situation. Has the pedigree.  It’s just how much is left and how it’s used.

First 6 fixtures

Stoke (H)
Man City (A)
Chelsea (A)
Spurs (H)
Man Utd (A)
Bournemouth (H)

Defoe

Defoe’s end to the season for Sunderland was nothing short of catastrophic.  1 goal was his only return in the last 13 games.  Whats more that was not bad luck as his underlying stats certainly were nothing to write home about.  Was that just Sunderland falling apart or was it also Defoe?

Thats the key question.  He should get pens but he had them at Sunderland as well as a side that, for all their faults, were focused on him.  He will be in a better team it’s just whether he can take advantage of it

First 6 fixtures:

West Brom (A)
Watford (H)
Man City (H)
Arsenal (A)
Brighton (H)
Everton (A)

Vokes

Vokes finished the season in great form.  He started 5 of the last 6 playing 90 minutes in 4 of those.  He also scored 5 goals.  His underlying stats were also ok to back that up.  The negative is the fixtures and rotation of the 3 main strikers of Vokes, Barnes and Gray.  At the moment he has an ankle injury but is expected to be fit.

First 6 fixtures:

Chelsea (A)
West Brom (H)
Spurs (A)
Crystal Palace (H)
Liverpool (A)
Huddersfield (H)

Murray

At 33 it’s hard to believe Murray will be finally cracking the premier league after 2 previous attempts.   Murrays return of a goal or assist every 123 minutes last season was ok although the underlying stats were mixed.

His previous premier league experience was also mixed.   Murray’s numbers at Bournemouth in 15/16 were terrible but his underlying stats were good. His 14/15 season at Palace, although on limited minutes with alot of sub appearances, was mind boggling good.   It’s hard to see it though and surely Brighton will sign a striker and I mean someone better than Izzy Brown.   You can see more detail in my article Gayle vs Mounie vs Murray

First 6 fixtures

Man City (H)
Leicester (A)
Watford (A)
West Brom (H)
Bournemouth (A)
Newcastle (H)

PLAYERS TO MONITOR

Here’s a few players which need more monitoring over pre-season for gametime or positional reasons

Gametime monitors

There are a number of players who could become options should they be able to show a secure start for GW1 over pre-season. These are

Gabbiadini and Austin for the CF Southampton role

Barnes and Andre Gray for likely Vokes partner

Sandro Ramirez of Everton.   Will he lead the line

Will Iheanacho join Leicester?

What about Hernandez of West Ham – will he go straight into the team if Andy Carroll becomes fit

 Positional monitor

Rodriguez  – will he be a CF or effectively an AM

Form and Gametime

Can Rondon or Berahino show any form to establish their place as a CF

Injury monitor

 Deeney – Groin no return date

Llorente – broken arm GW1

A Carroll – Groin no return date

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