Here’s our fantasy premier league forward tips GW31 article in our player rankings series to help you make a transfer decision for your fantasy premier league team. This week we concentrate solely on players with a fixture in GW31
fantasy premier league forward tips GW31 – player rankings
First it’s important to remember that each player is ranked as a transfer target for this week. So while we generally look at fixtures form and underlying stats a player who’s away to Man City is going to be ranked lower than someone home to Huddersfield for example. If possible a transfer should have a good fixture first up.
This is the 3rd player rankings article. There’s a defenders player rankings article and a midfielder player rankings article can also see who the bandwagons are for GW31
STATS DEFINITIONS
Fixt Ease: The ease of the mentioned fixture range from an attacking perspective. In this case it is just for 3 fixtures ahead. See our GW 31 fixture ease article.
Pts Per 90: This is the anount of FPL points earned per 90 minutes played
ATGS – the bookies football odds for anytime goalscoring odds for GW31.
Underlying stats rank. I’ve ranked midfielders on their expected goals and assists per 90 minutes played from the better than excellent site understat.com. I’ve converted those into attacking FPL points to rank all the midfielders. That’s in our expected goals article
IMPORTANT NOTE
Just to repeat above this article only includes GW31 players as these are likely to be the transfer you make
Which player you pick will depend on your chip situation and when you plan on playing them. See my latest blank and double gameweek article.
If you’re wildcarding soon after you may pick differently then if you’re holding the player for a longer period. Hopefully the amount of information below will help you make a choice irrespective of your position
THE SCHEDULE
Here’s the link to the google spreadsheet
Firmino
A very highly owned forward who will be risky not to own for GW31.
It’s 27 starts and 2 sub appearances for the Liverpool CF/false 9 and he’s scored 13 goals plus 8 assists. His consistency return rate is just about ok returning a goal or assist in 48% of those starts. However he has an uncanny ability to accrue bonus points with 26 so far . Only Harry Kane has more and that has lead to a very impressive 7 double digit FPL point hauls. His recent form is good too with 2 goals and 2 assists in his last 4 matches and his minutes on the pitch are also good. It’s reasonably rare that he plays less than deep 80 minutes.
The only negative is that his underlying stats are pretty ordinary and he is over performing. Now he has shown the ability to do this before reasonably consistently but not to this extent. Whether you think this is an issue really depends on your view on underlying stats. You could also point to the fact that the 3 games prior to the Man Utd bus parking exercise he really did produce excellent underlying stats
Watford (H)
Crystal Palace (A)
Everton (A)
Mounie
If you look at Mounie over the season things aren’t that impressive. 16 starts plus 5 sub appearances spattered over the season due to form and injury. He scored 6 goals and 2 assists in that time but only had 4 games where he returned a goal or assist.
However if you focus on the last 4 games where he has come back into the team and played 90 minutes in 4 then the picture is more pleasing. 2 goals and 2 assists in those games plus very good underlying stats in the 3 games apart from v Spurs. Those 4 games are what you’re relying on for the real Mounie
Crystal Palace (H)
Newcastle (A)
Brighton (A)
Wilson
The fact that Wilson is 3rd in the rankings show’s how difficult the pickings are.
There are 2 main issues with Wilson. The first is that after 6 consecutive 90 minute games he now has Defoe breathing down his neck and that has lead to 2 70 minute odd subbings in the last 3. The 2nd is that it’s 5 consecutive blanks and the underlying stats are quite frankly appalling through that spell. We know he can do it, he has a hat trick against Huddersfield and a 6 game spell between GW20 and GW25 where he scored 4 goals and 2 assists in 6 games. It’s just not happening now.
If it can come right home to a WBA side that can’t stop conceding could be the time.
West Brom (H)
Watford (A)
Crystal Palace (H)
Josh King
Took the pen with Wilson on the field v Leicester which is an attraction although I suspect he wouldn’t take them if Defoe is on the pitch.
He’s started 20 games plus 5 sub appearances for 4 goals and 3 assists. He’s returned in a pretty ordinary 7 of those games. His minutes are bit all over the place and his underlying stats are as well. He also hasn’t played often as a CF more as the CAM.
His recent form is ok with 2 goals in the last 5 although 1 was a pen but again the underlying stats were pretty patchy. Was a sub in the last game due to an injury niggle but expected to be fit. Good fixtures and really this is more about WBA than faith in Josh King
West Brom (H)
Watford (A)
Crystal Palace (H)
Tosun
The tricky thing about Cenk Tosun is that he’s only just come back into the side starting in the last 2. Now he has scored in both those games both with good finishes. While I would see he was good against Burnley he was pretty anonymous v Brighton despite scoring.
The next fixture is against one of the worst defences in the league which has supposedly improved under Lambert but really has done so on the back of some very kind fixtures. The fixtures afterwards are tricky so he’s only really if you’re going to wildcard in GW32
Stoke (A)
Man City (H)
Liverpool (H)
Benteke
After pretty much being a 90 minute man all season he was subbed at 45 minutes against Chelsea and criticised in a bit of a sideways manner by Hodgson followed by some attempt to back track.
It’s interestingly come at a time where he has managed to get his form above the abysmal start he made to the season where he only returned in 1 start in his first 13 starts.
Since that period he has got a goal and 6 assists in his last 9 starts. His underlying stats are quite good he’s just under performed them to such a ridiculous degree that can only be explained by some performances where he looks like he couldn’t hit a barn door. While those who believe in regression maybe taking that as a good sign he did underperform last season although no where near to this extent.
Not setting the world alight on bonus either with only 5.
It’s a good fixture next although preferred for GW32 wildcarders with Liverpool after that but the subbing v Chelsea wasn’t a good sign
Huddersfield (A)
Liverpool (H)
Bournemouth (A)
Rondon
There really isn’t much to recommend here apart from the next fixture against a porous Bournemouth defence and a couple of reasonable fixtures next. Whether near certain relegation makes WBA give up or play with more freedom remains to be seen though.
Rondon has started 24 games plus 4 sub appearances for 5 goals and 1 assist with these returns coming 1 by 1 meaning he has only returned in 25% of his starts. He is also yet to earn a bonus point.
His underlying stats could be worse but he is a regular underperformer.
Bournemouth (A)
Burnley (H)
Swansea (H)
Deeney
Probably Deeneys main attribute was that he had pens not that this helped him when he missed one v Arsenal.
His season record is quite poor. He’s scored 5 goals and 2 assists in 13 starts plus 8 sub appearances with 3 of those goals being penalties.
The underlying stats and the fixture away to Liverpool also don’t help the situation
Liverpool (A)
Bournemouth (H)
Burnley (H)
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