Given the interest this post has got over the day and the number of comments I’ve got I thought I would update it with some further comments and Ighalo and Valencia. I’ve added the additional comments in italics and talked about some additional factors to hopefully give it a bit more context
I thought that given the break I would look at the stats of some strikers and see what if anything that tells us. Essentially what I’ve done is take a look at the shot to goal conversion rates of individual strikers and compared them to the premier league strikers average and their individual records last season. That will give some indication as to whether they are over or underperforming and could regress to a more natural level. Obviously there could be a number of reasons for the changes such as improved technique, better service etc but it will at least give a factor or something to think about in our future transfers. It’s a fairly short and to the point article.
fantasy premier league forwards – analysing some stats
How I will present this is just in some note form showing how the goals to shot ratios compare to the strikers premier league average and to their own stats last season. I wont give the stats just my interpretation. I don’t pretend to be a statistician and there could be a number of factors which contribute but it’s a natural feeling that if your converting at below your and the league average their is a case for improvement and vice versa. Obviously players have diufferent skill levels and will convert shots at a different rate which is why I compare them to last season. However, it’s worth noting that in terms of the league average alot are around the average. I hope you at least find it inteesting and something to think about. I’ll start with the significant outliers. I’ve removed penalties from the analysis by the way
I think the conversion rate is only 1 factor. How many shooting chances they have will obviously be a huge factor. I tend to deal that with the shooting stats part of the “ones to watch” articles and I didn’t want this article to be a replica of that but to merely discuss a specific point. However I’ll now add to the individuals the quantity element of the shooting stats to give some context to the conversion rate to help predict how things will go in the future. However it is evry rough and ready and just part of the thinking and no substitute for the “ones to watch” articles which take into account a number of different factors.
Kane (11 goals excludes pens)
Kane is an interesting one with conversion rates way below last year and way below the league average. Interestingly though if you analyse it from GW10 when he got his hat trick against Bournemouth then he’s very much continuing at the league average and around his last year level. It should be noted that last year he was exceptionally clinical though. It’s hard to know what to make of this but I suspect the fact that he has had an extreme season of 2 parts that he’s now continuing at the level we expect.
Has very good quantity shooting stats and hard to think that there should be a slow down in goals
Giroud (11 goals)
Giroud is someone I expect to improve his conversion rate. He really is well below the league average in some shooting stats and well below what he did last year. Despite his reputation he was fairly clinical last year. Part of his issues could be to do with the fact that he has more headed opportunities than other strikers which you would suspect are harder to convert. However his ratio of headed goals when far more clinical last year was similar. So he could really improve his conversion rate over the season.
Great quantity shooting stats and I think he could have a great end of the season if there are no gametime issues with Walcott
Costa (10 goals)
He’s converting around the league average but quite a bit behind last season. I haven’t looked at his stats since Mourinho left but that’s probably too small a sample anyway
Seriously improved quantity stats recently should hold him in good stead
Deeney ( 3 goals)
Incredibly poor conversion rates. That could be partly explained by being new to the league but this is a proven goal scorer if not at this level. Could also be partly explained by playing behind Ighalo meaning the quality of his chances haven’t been so good but it’s hard to believe his conversion rate wont improve
May score more goals than the paltry 3 but doesn’t get enough chances I suspect to make an impact
Mitrovic (4 goals)
An exceptionally low conversion rate. New to the league and in a struggling team so hard to say if this will improve.
Really things should get a lot better. Has good quantity stats and a very low conversion rate. Is he a time bomb waiting to explode or just a Pelle (see below)
Pelle (6 goals)
A good example of a conversion rate which is terrible but mirrors a terrible last season so this doesn’t give much hope that this year will end up different.
Alot of shots but last year and this year have tended to show he can’t hit a barn door
Vardy (15 goals)
No surprise that hes improved markedly since last season but he’s still just converting at around the league average so on the face of it no real cause for concern
Very good quantity stats. Hard to see things slowing down
Lukaku (15 goals)
Like Vardy has improved his conversion markedly since last season but still around the average
Good if not top notch quantity stats and despite the recent slowdown these have stayed consistent. It’s hard to know if the improvement on last season is significant which is the only shadow but you can make the case as a young striker he should improve from last year
Aguero (13 goals)
Surprisingly bang on average but obviously in a City team he gets more chances than others. Not as clinical as last season though which is no surprise given his inconsistency for a large part of the season
The best quantity stats of any striker means he will keep banging in the goals
Ighalo (15 goals)
Pretty standard league average conversion rates. However no premier league previous to compare it to as a judge of what his natural level is. His shooting chances though have fallen off a cliff in recent matches which has been the reason for the slow down rather than the conversion rate
Valencia (4 goals)
A pretty standard set of conversion rates compared to the rest of the league. However much better than last year. I suspect the quality of chances given West Hams improvement and Big Sam going plus Payet joining would explain that
Defoe (10 goals)
A seriously too good to be true conversion rate at the moment even for a player of his finishing ability and although doesn’t really get the chances to take advantage of it. The conversion rate though is much better than last season. I would be surprised if things don’t slow down although the abiltiy of new midfielder Khaxri to create chances may change that
I hope that provides a bit more around the article
Thats it. Please post any comments that you think are relevant or helpful
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