fantasy premier league GW1 captain choice


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Here’s our fantasy premier league GW1 captain choice article where we look at ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. We look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls, who the FFGeek contributors are captaining, some stats and the FFGeek choice.

fantasy premier league GW1 captain choice

The fixtures

fpl GW1 captain choice

The Bookies Team win odds

Only 3 teams are heavy favourites this week:

Liverpool v West Ham £1.22 – Salah, Mane

Man Utd v Leicester £1.50 – Sanchez

Huddersfield v Chelsea £1.60 – ?

Interestingly Man City at Arsenal is £1.91

The Bookies player odds

Here’s a bookies anytime goal scoring odds:




£1.57 – Salah

£1.91 – Aguero, Firmino, Austin

£2.00  – Lukaku

£2.10 – Mitrovic, Sanchez,

£2.15 – Morata

£2.20 – Aubameyang, Jesus

The FPL advice site Polls

Here’s the FFGeek captain poll:

fantasy premier league captain poll

Unfortunately captain polls are a bit thin on the ground and I can only find 2 in addition to ours.

The FFGeek poll asks who will you captain.  Site 1 asks for the best captain and site 2 is silent on the question.

 

 

Site 1FFGeekSite 2
Salah627767
Aguero799
Sanchez537
Aubameyang513

The FFGeek contributors

Here’s the FFGeek contributors captain picks so far.  I’ll update on Thursday late.  The blanks are yet to be confirmed.

Rob ReidAguero
Joseph CrilleySalah
Alex BallSalah
Mikael
FPL Word
Keith Spencer
Scott Hargadon
Yaniv SalomanSalah
Jordan SadlerSalah
Prakhar PatelSalah
Jason SadlerSalah
Mkael HietalaSalah
Sergio Torija
Andrew Ferguson
Robert Cosgrave
Joe ArmigerSalah
James Wantly

Some stats

Salah home 17/18 against non top 6

I haven’t got last years FPL data so here’s the data from the excellent site transfer markt

fantasy premier league GW1 captain choice

So Salah averaged a goal a game and 0.43 assists per game against the non top 6 opposition.  He scored or assists in 11 out of 14 games ie 79%

West Ham defence against top 6 sides away in 17/18

fantasy premier league GW1 captain choice

6 games 16 goals conceded with 4 conceded in 3 of the 6.

In theory they should be improved by the signings although whether they have had a chance to gel as a team will be the question.

Aguero away at top 6 teams in 17/18

fantasy premier league GW1 captain choice

So he scored in both games he played in although that was only 2 of 5 does tend to show the issues with owning Aguero

Arsenal defence at home against top 6 sides in 17/18

fantasy premier league GW1 CAPTAIN CHOICE

11 goals conceded in 5 games isn’t great to say the least.  Whether a new manager, CB and CDM can make a difference remains to be seen

Summary




The Bookies make Liverpool the team most favoured to win in GW1 at £1.22

Salah is the favourite anytime goal odds by some distance at £1.57.  Aguero is in the next group at £1.91

The captain polls make Salah a runaway favourite with 70% of managers on average saying they will captain him or he is the best captain.  Aguero is next around 8%

The FFGeek contributors pretty unanimously say they will captain Salah.

The stats support Salah as having the better returns than Aguero in similar matches last season and West Ham being the worst of the 2 defences just in similar circumstances.  Both defences could argue for 18/19 improvement with signings.

The FFGeek choice

It’s definitely Salah for me.  Not only do the stats support it the ownership is so high and the captaincy % likely to be so high in his favour that anyone else is taking a big ranking risk

That’s it hope you found it useful.

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3 thoughts on “fantasy premier league GW1 captain choice

    • I dont personally think so, based on spurs having a depleted squad at the moment due to the world cup. this doesnt help erikson’s assist potential without kane, alli etc to finish of the chances he creates. he may also play further back until everyone is back fit.

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