Here’s our fantasy premier league GW16 forward tips article and the 4th article this week in our player rankings series. There’s a range of stats plus commentary on each player and their next 6 fixtures. This will help you choose the best transfer for your team
fantasy premier league GW16 forward tips – player rankings
First it’s important to remember that each player is ranked as a transfer target for this week. So while we generally look at fixtures form and underlying stats a player who’s away to Man City is going to be ranked lower than someone home to Huddersfield for example. If possible a transfer should have a good fixture first up.
Firstly there’s a table of stats. Then there’s a bit of brief commentary on each player and their next 6 fixtures.
This is the 3nd player rankings article. I’ve also written a defenders and GKs player rankings article, a premium midfielders article and a budget midfielders article. You may also find it interesting to see who the 10 top FPL managers I follow have and who are the bandwagon transfers this week.
STATS DEFINITIONS
Fixt Ease: The ease of the mentioned fixture range from an attacking perspective. See our GW16 fixture ease article
Mins per FPL Pt. The amount of minutes a player takes to earn an FPL point. The shorter and obviously lower the number is the better
ATGS – the bookies anytime goalscoring odds for GW16.
xG and xA per 90 – the expected goals and assists per 90 minutes played from the better than excellent site understat.com. See our underlying stats summary for expected goal information on teams and players.
THE SCHEDULE
There’s more players and a load more stats on the attached google spreadsheet
Morata
The former Real Madrid and Juventus striker has been a revelation since joining Chelsea. 9 goals and 4 assists in 13 games and 2 part games is some return for your first year in the Premier League. He’s also produced returns consistently and despite having Hazard in the team has still been pretty handy in picking up the bonus points. The fixtures going forward are excellent as well.
I guess the negatives are that I would like his underlying stats to be better although he has shown he can over perform them in the past. He’s also due for a rest by Conte. Given the fact that he was often a sub in the previous 2 clubs in leagues that didn’t play over the Xmas period that could still come into play
West Ham (A)
Huddersfield (A)
Southampton (H)
Everton (A)
Brighton (H)
Stoke (H)
Aguero
Fantastic returns this season produced in a very consistent manner backed up by fantastic underlying stats. We all know his quality and history of performance in the premier league. He’s also been in a team that’s been flying. Well at least to very recently.
The negatives are obviously the rotation with Pep largely favouring a single striker. That makes him difficult to pick as a captain with certainty. If you call only beating 3 teams 2-1 consecutively a stutter, than Man City are stuttering and that’s crept into Aguero’s last couple of performances. That could be a blip or it could be that teams have discovered that packing the box and relying on set pieces and limited counter attacks to avoid the deadly Man City transition maybe the way to stop them.
A difficult fixture next makes him a tough transfer target this week
Man Utd (A)
Swansea (A)
Spurs (H)
Bournemouth (H)
Newcastle (A)
Crystal Palace (A)
Jesus
Pretty much everything I said for Aguero you can take for Jesus. He’s just not quite as good in some areas and better in others. Again the last few games have effected his performances
Man Utd (A)
Swansea (A)
Spurs (H)
Bournemouth (H)
Newcastle (A)
Crystal Palace (A)
Kane
You may have seen the article I wrote re Kane and DGW22
It’s easier to start with the positives re Kane. These are his history. He’s scored 75 goals in his last 3 seasons in the PL. Secondly he’s explosive. Even with his questionable returns this season he’s still got a higher % of 10+ FPL point hauls than any other striker.
The negatives take rather longer He’s failed 4 times at home against low placed opposition in Swansea, Bournemouth, C Palace and Burnley. He also failed last week against the worst away defence in Watford. Spurs are stuttering to put it mildly. I’ve said it before what is the point of £12.8m spent if you can’t captain him? He’s also been the least consistent returner of all the premium forwards and the only 1 returning a goal or assist in less than 50% of games. Calvert Lewin has the same consistency return rate believe it or not. His last stand was his underlying stats. However in 4 of his last 5 games his goal threat stats have been woeful.
Now DGW22 and the next 2 fixtures have probably earned a stay of execution for alot of managers holding him. If you didn’t own him, whether you would transfer him in given the above is certainly questionable.
Stoke (H)
Brighton (H)
Man City (A)
Burnley (A)
Southampton (H)
West Ham (H)
Firmino
After going 10 games with just a goal and assist the Liverpool false 9, if you like, has finally showed a decent return with 2 goals v Brighton. He’s now got some good fixtures ahead and playing in team seemingly in great form.
My issue has been his inconsistent returns. Producing a goal or assist in 5 of 13 games isn’t cutting it for me. In addition his underlying stats aren’t those of a striker. The goal threat just isn’t strong enough. Whether the teams form will change these factors remains to be seen and is the gamble you take
Everton (H)
West Brom (H)
Bournemouth (A)
Arsenal (A)
Swansea (H)
Leicester (H)
Lacazette
Th Arsenal CFs positives are that he’s playing in a team showing some form and with good fixtures ahead. He’s also been a reasonably consistent returner of goals and assists. He also may have pen duties depending on the Sanchez position.
However there are a number of negatives. Firstly is his minutes on the pitch. He has a ready made replacement waiting in Giroud and that has seen Lacazette average 71 minutes in his last 4 games. He also has Giroud and Sanchez as possible rotation replacemenst. That could see him rested over the Xmas period. He also has shown no abiliy to pick up bonus points which have made his overall reruturns look poor
Everton (H)
West Brom (H)
Bournemouth (A)
Arsenal (A)
Swansea (H)
Leicester (H)
Lukaku
It’s not all negatives with Lukaku. Personally I think he’s been a bit over criticised. I think often the issue with strikers is that the “eye test” for pure goal scorers can paint a negative picture if they don’t score. They seemingly just want the ball delivered for a tap in. I often think the same about Morata but then he scores and all is forgotten.
Lukaku’s 8 goals and 4 assists in his 15 90 minute games and has been consistently delivered with returns in 10 of his 15 games. His underlying stats are reasonably good and he has generally been a goal threat in all but the games against the top 6. He’s hard to replace with Ibrahimovics recent return from injury a hindrance on his ability to take too many minutes and Mourinho reluctant it seems to let Rashford or Martial be the CF.
However an inability to add bonus points and 1 assist in his last 3 plus another game next against a top 6 side are the cautionary points.
Man City (H)
Bournemouth (H)
West Brom (A)
Leicester (A)
Burnley (H)
Southampton (H)
Austin
It seems the ability to score goals isn’t enough these days. I can understand to some extent why the ability to press and be mobile is a quality needed in the modern game but when the rest of the Southampton team seemingly couldn’t hit a barn door then how he’s been allowed to sit on the bench for so long is beyond me.
When on the pitch he will score goals. Full stop. His finishing in recent games has been top class. What’s more what he’s shown hasn’t been a fluke. His underlying goal threat stats on limited minutes are better than Lacazette, Kane, Morata and Lukaku.
The negatives are inevitable rotation with Long and Gabbiadini in the background. The fixtures are also brutal
Arsenal (H)
Leicester (H)
Chelsea (A)
Huddersfield (H)
Spurs (A)
Man Utd (A)
Chris Wood
The Burnley striker has done reasonably well for himself with 4 goals in his first 8 games plus 3 sub appearances and seems to have an ability to find the net. Good fixtures.
On to the negatives. Whether he will get sufficient chances in a fairly defensive team like Burnley is questionable. He will probably also be subbed for the last 10 minutes with Vokes and Barnes waiting in the wings.
Watford (H)
Stoke (H)
Brighton (A)
Spurs (H)
Man Utd (A)
Huddersfield (A)
Follow us on twitter and facebook for article updates and news
Geek Leagues
Fantasy Premier League: 5379-1967
Sun: FantasyFootballGeek SGDKX9Y3
TFF: FantasyFootballGeek PIN 8000919 Passcode 1159
Sky: FFGeek 8310511
