Here’s our fantasy premier league GW23 captain choice article where we look at a number of ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. We look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls and the FFGeek choice.
FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE GW23 CAPTAIN CHOICE
If the article’s a bit long there’s a summary at the end
FIXTURES
Here’s the fixtures for GW23. Remember it’s a gameweek deadline of Saturday 13 January 14.00 UK time
The bookies see 3 teams as favourites with the following win odds for £1 invested. It’s likely the fantasy premier league GW23 captain choice will come from one of those teams.
Man Utd £1.20 – Lukaku, Lingard, Pogba
Spurs £1.25 – Kane, Alli, Erksen, Son
Chelsea £1.25 – Morata, Hazard
THE BOOKIES ODDS
Here we look at one of the bookies anytime goal scoring odds. I’ve tried to only put players in who have some gametime security although that doesn’t apply for Man City. It’s the return for £1 invested. Odds are as of Thursday evening and remember they assume the player starts and don’t count assist potential.
£1.57 – Kane, Lukaku
£1.61 – Morata
£1.75 – Hazard
£1.85 – Lacazette, Sanchez, Aguero
£1.91 – Martial
£2.05 – Lingard
£2.20 – Son HM
£2.30 – Alli, Salah
£2.37 – Pogba
THE FPL ADVICE SITE POLLS.
Thanks to everybody who voted in the FFGeek poll.
It’s also worth noting here that the FFGeek poll asks who you are going to appoint as captain to reflect the reality of the spread of captain choices. Others ask who is the best captain. Others just say captain poll and leave the question up to you.
Firstly here’s the FFGeek poll:
If you want to see the full GW23 captain poll use this link
Here’s the summary of the other main advice polls. It’s worth noting that site 1 is the site with the most traffic and it asks who is the best captain
WHO ARE THE FFGEEK CONTRIBUTORS PICKING?
I will fill this in and repost it, possibly tomorrow when I have all the teams
SOME THOUGHTS ON KANE, LINGARD AND HAZARD
Kane
Kane has started 11 home games. He’s returned a goal or assist in 4/11 games for a total of 8 goals and 1 assist. However here’s the nub of the issue. In those 4 returning games his scores were 16,8,12 and 17. When he scores, he scores big.
In the 11 home games he’s played though his underlying stats have only been below a reasonable goal threat standard 3 times. That was against Chelsea, Swansea and C Palace.
The Everton defence
There’s only 1 comparable game since Big Sam joined and that was the away 1-1 draw at Liverpool which was a fairly trademark bus parking exercise which resulted in 23 shots. Only 3 were on target and 13 were outside the box (probably most from Coutinho!). Stats from understat.com
I think you get the picture of how Big Sam will approach the match. Very much in the Paul Clement Swansea and David Moyes West Ham approach of a mass penalty area set up.
Michael Keane looks like he will be missing from the match
Lingard
Lingard has started 3 home games against Man City, Bournemouth and Southampton. He’s blanked in all 3 and Man Utd have scored 2 goals total in the 3 games. He also played 45 minutes as a sub against Burnley and scored twice in GW20.
His underlying stats against Burnley and Southampton were good. They were poor and Man City and Bournemouth
The Stoke defence
Stoke away from home against the top 6 sides have been a total disaster. Man City 2-7, Spurs 1-5 and Chelsea 0-5
Shawcross looks unlikely to play and Martins Indi and Pieters are doubts but likely to play.
With Mark Hughes sacked but no manager hired and Sanchez Flores looking the favourite will there be a positive reaction from the Stoke team?
HAZARD
Hazard has started 6 home games and returned a goal or assist in 3 of those games. If you remove games against top 4 sides then he’s returned in 3 of the 4 remaining games. An assist v Watford (5 pts), 1 goal 1 penalty v Newcastle (15 points) and 1 assist v Southampton (6 pts). He blanked v Brighton. Chelsea scored 10 goals in those 4 games
His underlying stats were good in 2 games and poor in 2 others
The Leicester defence
The only game away against a top 6 side since Puel has been in charge has been away to Liverpool which although the score was close at a 1-2 loss, the game was a hammering that just didn’t happen. 17 shots with 12 inside the box and a big xGA score.
In addition Moragan and Fuchs have been ruled out. In central defence that means that Dragovic who has only played twice in the premier league will be CB
SUMMARY
Unsurprisingly the bookies favour Kane, Lukaku and Morata.
The Polls are hugely in favour of Kane with everyone else a distant 2nd.
Kane’s form at home has been patchy to say the least but when he does score he has the ability to score big. Everton will park the bus like previous sides that have been successful against Spurs at home
Lingard doesn’t have many games at home to draw conclusions from but in 3 comparable games he’s blanked in 2 and Utd haven’t been exactly scoring for fun either. Stoke have been defensive disaster with 3 hammerings against top 6 sides away
Chelsea and Hazard have the ability to score big but Hazard isn’t the most consistent fellow in the world. He does have penalties though.
Only 1 comparable game for Leicester away under Puel and that was only lost 1-2 but it was a siege v Liverpool
THE FFGEEK CHOICE
Kane is an overwhelming polls pick and for someone who can be so explosive I won’t be going against the Polls. Even though you could easily rationalise against it. It seems the overwhelming ranking shield pick this week
It’s incredible to think that Lukaku’s stock has fallen so dramatically that he’s not even in the frame for such a plumb fixture and Lingard is. It also says something that Lukaku could be a great sword pick if you own him and are very brave.
The transfer in Poll
By the way you can see my views on who are the most transferred in and out on the fantasy premier league site in my bandwagons and sinking ships article
No huge surprises although very different to the overall FPL population. “None of these” had a low vote which is always a bit of a victory for me!
The Transfer out Poll
“None of these” higher than I would like in this.
Arnautovic is a slight surprise v Huddersfield and good fixtures although he is an easy transfer to Lingard and has been an injury doubt.
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