fantasy premier league GW23 – Rob Reid (the FPL Vet) talks about FPL formations

THE RISE AND FALL OF 3-4-3

3-4-3. FPL regulars by now know that this is the template formation favoured by most of the top managers. FPL is a game of few events (a regular phrase here on FFG) and goals are key. Forwards are likely going to score or be involved in the most goals, so it therefore makes sense that you should be filling your 3 forward positions and maximising your goal-scoring opportunities. Simple. Or is it?

I reckon something has changed in FPL this season. The performance of the 10 top managers seems to reflect this as well. There are much more people playing the game this campaign (there are well over 4 million registered teams up from about 3.6 million last season, though I don’t have any stats on active teams.) The player price fluctuations seem more volatile, partially as a result of the former statement and also probably because FPL have probably made their price change algorithm somewhat stricter and less forgiving. As a result team values overall seem to be a bit lower, unless you are willing to gamble early in the gameweek on a bandwagon.

So what does all this mean? It means you have to look at value more carefully than ever before, as it is key in getting the correct balance in your squad. In this article I aim to explore the virtues of the 3-4-3 a bit further and try and arrive at a conclusion as to whether it is still the optimum FPL formation for this season. I’ve not gone into quite so much detail stats-wise as I have in previous articles as I could get carried away, but I’ve put a bit of analysis in which I hope you find interesting. Here goes!

MIDFIELDERS VS FORWARDS

First off, a bit of analysis to look at who are the best players in each section.

For this, I’ve broken this into 3 tiers of players based on price with the 6 top-scoring midfielders and 5 top scoring forwards in each. This accounts for the fact that affording the top 3 forwards and top 5 midfielders isn’t possible. I’ve considered total points, recent form and value (form/price.)

Alli,  Kane, Sanchez, Giroud, Crouch

In green are highlighted the top players in each category. The table makes interesting reading. If you want to bypass the boring stats, for value and form forwards still slightly have the edge in terms of the overall top performers. Looking within each price category however, midfielders favour a bit better, scoring more higher positions in each price bracket.

A few things also stood out for me. First of all is the performance of Jermaine Defoe – he scores highly in both form and value categories, which even in a poor side makes him a good pick for his price. In a 3-4-3 he would certainly be a good 3rd striker and of course, he’s game-time secure. Is he good enough to be a 2nd striker though in a 3-5-2? I would debate that based on Sunderland’s form and the other options available and he is too pricey and carries too much form to be a benched 3rd.

Second stand-out fact is the good form of 5.5-7.0m priced mids and the poor form below 5.2. Couple this with the good form of Crouch and Carroll, I would suggest that if you’re going 3-5-2 your 5th mid can’t be super-cheap player but your 3rd striker could and could be rotated in for better fixtures provided he is game-time secure.

Finally for overall scoring, you can’t ignore the big hitters – this season it’s Sanchez, Hazard, Zlatan and Costa leading the way. With their high overall points score and ownership levels, these guys are essentially core players are are pretty much fixture-proof. Ignoring form and value to some extent, these are the guys that will hurt your overall ranking most, with Alli, Kane and Eriksen also at risk of breaking into this core. A Chelsea defender I would also agrue is a must have, even though none of them carry over 30% ownership at present. Their defensive form is too good to ignore.

Based on this, let’s use a core of Sanchez, Hazard, Costa, Zlatan, Alli/Eriksen and a Chelsea defender. We’ll then look at the options for the different formations. This is going to set you back £59.4m at current values, although most of us will in reality have a bit more leeway as we’ll have picked up some these players at lower prices earlier in the season and will have more than £100m to play with on our team value. I’ve used my own team for the examples below, I have a fairly average team value of £103.2m at present.

3-4-3 OPTIONS, PROS AND CONS 

Looking at the 3-4-3, if you’re going with Defoe as your third striker at £7.9m, you then have £34.6 to spend on your remaining 8 players if you’re sticking with the above core. This is going to be a struggle – average is £4.3m per player. This leaves you with 2 budget (and therefore likely low-scoring) midfielders, one of whom has to play each week; 2 budget keepers and 4 budget defenders. Obviously more funds can be raised by sacrificing a big-hitter – changing Hazard for someone cheaper or going for a slightly cheaper second striker like Lukaku for example, but then you run the risk of being stung by a high ownership player.

The major upside to 3-4-3 for me is the guarantee of having 3 decent strikers, although to make the numbers crunch you are probably relying on having Defoe as one of these 3 as there is a very real lack of a reliable budget option this year. If Defoe gets injured I’m not convinced by the form of similarly priced replacements unless someone under the radar like Welbeck hits some form. The major flaw with this, is the lack of depth elsewhere in your squad which means that you’re relying on form rather than fixtures.

3-5-2 OPTIONS, PRO’S AND CONS 

3-5-2 gives me £42.5 to spend on my other 9 players based on the above. A bit more flexible at £4.7m per player. The 3rd striker needs to be super cheap though and I need to make sure the 4th and 5th mids aren’t just fillers. Using Phillips and Stanislas as the 2 other mids, then there is £4.4m average for the remaining 6 players. Only £0.1m difference per keeper/defender. So it almost comes down to are these 2 midfielders (or 1 mid + cheap striker depending on fixtures) going to outscore Defoe + cheapie mid.

For me the major upside of 3-5-2, is you get a bit more flexibility with your fixtures. You can consider rotating between mids 4 and 5 and 3rd striker. You also get slightly more money to play with in defence. The major flaw for me is the 3rd striker likely won’t score highly if you need him and if he gets injured or suspended he’s difficult to replace. I’ve found this out twice this season with red-flagged Diomande and Anichebe being stuck in my squad for periods of several weeks.

IS IT VIABLE TO GO WITH A FRONT 6 OR LESS

The other option is to break with FPL tradition and go for another formation. There are certainly more viable scoring options in the sub £5m bracket in defence and between the sticks. Defence is also a nice differential. You can still cover the core ownership players, but get some more reliable differentials. It does come with risk though – defenders are more likely to score negative points and are less likely to be involved in goals of course.

Going with 4 defenders could also remove the need for a playing 5th mid, which would allow you to spend more on your 4th. This opens up more options in the £5.5-7.0 bracket so you may end up with a better player in the 4th midfield slot. You also have more scope to respond to better runs of fixtures and because of the larger pool of viable selections it’s more easy to transfer players in and out with generally less volatility on prices because of lower ownership levels. Food for thought!

CONCLUSIONS

If you’re going with form, or you are blessed with a higher team value at this stage then 3-4-3 still looks a good option. Defoe does look the best 3rd striker for this at the moment and his stats back this. 3-5-2 probably affords a bit more flexibility with fixtures though be prepared for the fact that your 3rd striker is likely to be a genuine place-filler. Finally, don’t write off going with 4 defenders, especially in weeks where there are better defensive fixtures.

To offer my own thoughts, I’m favouring a more flexible approach this season rather than the standard blanket 3-4-3 I’ve adopted in previous years. Part of this has been forced on me by injuries, but part of this is that I feel it favours my approach to the game more which is based on looking at both fixtures and form rather than just focusing on one of the two. There are certainly weeks both gone and coming up where playing 4 defenders looks appealing. Indeed, my best gameweek score this season has actually been playing 4-5-1!

I hope you’ve found this interesting and of use – comments of course are welcomed below. Which formation are you using most regularly and do you plan to change?