Here’s our fantasy premier league GW25 captain choice article where we look at a number of ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. We look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls and the FFGeek choice. We also show you the results of the transfer in and out poll
FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE GW25 CAPTAIN CHOICE
If the article’s a bit long there’s a summary at the end
FIXTURES
Here’s the fixtures for GW25:
The bookies see 4 teams as favourites with the following win odds for £1 invested. It’s likely the fantasy premier league GW25 captain choice will come from one of those teams.
Man City – £1.14 – Aguero, Sterling, De Bruyne
Liverpool – £1.33 – Salah, Firmino, Mane
Chelsea £1.28 – Hazard
Arsenal £1.50 – Lacazette
THE BOOKIES ODDS
Here we look at one of the bookies anytime goal scoring odds up to £2.40. I’ve tried to only put players in who have some gametime security although that doesn’t apply for Man City. It’s the return for £1 invested. Odds are as of Tuesday morning and remember they assume the player starts and don’t count assist potential.
£1.60 – Aguero
£1.75– Morata, Hazard
£1.85 – Salah, Sterling
£1.95 – Lacazette
£2.00 – Firmino
£2.05 – Kane
£2.20 – Mkhitaryan
£2.37 – Mane
£2.40 – Vardy
THE FPL ADVICE SITE POLLS.
Thanks to everybody who voted in the FFGeek poll.
It’s also worth noting here that the FFGeek poll asks who you are going to appoint as captain to reflect the reality of the spread of captain choices. Others ask who is the best captain. Others just say captain poll and leave the question up to you. It’s only been up since the Man City FA Cup game so it has full information in making a decision.
Firstly here’s the FFGeek poll:
If you want to see the full GW25 captain poll use this link
Here’s the summary of the other main advice polls. It’s worth noting that site 1 is the site with the most traffic and it asks who is the best captain
WHO ARE THE FFGEEK CONTRIBUTORS PICKING?
I’ll try and get back to this after the contributors articles
SOME THOUGHTS ON AGUERO AND SALAH
AGUERO
Here’s Aguero’s home games:
Aguero has started 11 home games. He’s got a goal or assist in 7 of the 11 and 5 of the 8 non top 6 sides. He’s got double figure point hauls in 3 games.
I would say his underlying stats at home have been patchy with him only getting an acceptable level (0.5 NPxG for a striker) in 5 of the 11 home games
Aguero played a half game in the FA Cup on Sunday v Cardiff which was pretty much a keep ball training session preserving energy.
The WBA defence
Away WBA are ranked 7th equal in goals conceded away conceding 16. In expected goals away they are 5th
There have been 3 comparable games away against top 6 sides for WBA
Rd 6 Arsenal 0-2 (xGA 2.39 and 16 shots 10 in the box)
Rd 13 Spurs 1-1 (xGA 1.92 and 25 shots 10 in the box)
Rd 17 Liverpool 0-0 (xGA 2.14 and 14 shots 10 in the box)
Gibbs, Evans and McAuley are serious doubts and WBA had a difficult if successful game against Liverpool in the FA Cup where despite winning they had little possession
The reverse fixture was 3-2 to Man City.
SALAH
Here’s Salah’s away games:
Salah has started 11 away games and returned a goal or assist in 8 of those games. If you remove games against top 6 sides then he’s returned in 6 of the 8 remaining games.
There’s been 4 double figure point hauls in those 11 games.
His goal threat underlying stats have been exceptional and in only the Brighton game were they less than acceptable (0.3 for NPxG and 0.3 xA for a mid)
Liverpool played a near full strength team v WBA in the FA Cup and Salah started and played the full 90.
The Huddersfield home defence
At home Huddersfield are ranked 11th equal in goals conceded at home conceding 16. In expected goals at home they are 12th
Huddersfield have played 3 comparable sides at home this season:
Rd 7 Spurs 0-4 (xGA 1.56 and 14 shots 10 in the box)
Rd 9 Man Utd 2-1 (xGA 0.81 and 9 shots 6 in the box
Rd 13 Man City 1-2 (xGA 2.66 and 14 shots 10 in the box)
Rd 17 Chelsea 1-3 (xGA 1.87 and 12 shots 11 in the box)
Huddersfield’s defence is at full strength and although they only drew v Birmingham they played an understrength team including a back 4 where none could line up this week
It’s worth noting that the reverse fixture was 3-0 to Liverpool.
SUMMARY
The bookies favour Aguero at £1.60 with the Chelsea pair at £1.75 and Salah/Sterling at £1.85
The Polls favour at around the 40% with Salah around the 20%
Aguero and Salah’s stats are actually relatively similar. Aguero surprisingly looks better with chances created and Bonus.
Salah has been hugely consistent not only in performance but also backed up by his underlying stats. Aguero has been consistent if not quite at Salah’s level but his underlying stats have been more up and down.
The WBA defence looks by far the stronger of the 2 but it played a tough game with a full team v Liverpool in the FA Cup at the weekend. It also has a few injuries with key CB Evans a doubt. Huddersfield played an under strength team and particularly an under strength defence v Birmingham,
Salah played the full 90 in the FA Cup on Saturday in the loss to WBA. Aguero played a leisurely half when Man City were 2-0 up v Cardiff.
THE FFGEEK CHOICE
Not sure yet unfortunately. I haven’t got Aguero at the moment.
THE TRANSFER IN POLL
By the way you can see my views on who are the most transferred in and out on the fantasy premier league site in my bandwagons and sinking ships article
THE TRANSFER OUT POLL
Interesting that a reasonable number of people are doing the Kane to Aguero swap by the looks of things
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