Here’s our fantasy premier league GW27 captain choice article where we look at a number of ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. We look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls and the FFGeek choice. We also show you the results of the transfer in and out poll
FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE GW27 CAPTAIN CHOICE
If the article’s a bit long there’s a summary at the end
Here’s the fixtures for GW27:
The bookies see 4 teams as favourites with the following win odds for £1 invested. It’s likely the fantasy premier league GW27 captain choice will come from one of those teams.
Man City – £1.22 – Aguero, Sterling, De Bruyne
Man Utd – £1.67 – Lukaku, Sanchez
Chelsea – £1.36 – Hazard
Liverpool – £1.80 – Salah, Firmino
THE BOOKIES ODDS
Here we look at one of the bookies anytime goal scoring odds up to £2.40. I’ve tried to only put players in who have some gametime security although that doesn’t apply for Man City. It’s the return for £1 invested. Odds are as of Saturday morning and remember they assume the player starts and don’t count assist potential.
£1.53 – Aguero
£1.75 – Giroud
£1.83 – Sterling
£1.85 – Hazard
£2.00 – Salah
£2.15 – Sanchez, Lukaku. Firmino
£2.30 – Martial
THE FPL ADVICE SITE POLLS.
Thanks to everybody who voted in the FFGeek poll.
It’s also worth noting here that the FFGeek poll asks who you are going to appoint as captain to reflect the reality of the spread of captain choices. Others ask who is the best captain. Others just say captain poll and leave the question up to you.
Firstly here’s the FFGeek poll:
If you want to see the full GW27 captain poll use this link
Here’s the summary of the other main advice polls. It’s worth noting that site 1 is the site with the most traffic and it asks who is the best captain
|Player||Site 1 %||FFGeek %||Site 2 %||Site 3 %|
WHO ARE THE FFGEEK CONTRIBUTORS PICKING?
SOME THOUGHTS ON AGUERO AND SALAH
Here’s Aguero’s home games:
Aguero has started 12 home games. He’s got a goal or assist in 8 of the 12 and 6 of the 9 non top 6 sides. He’s got double figure point hauls in 3 games.
I would say his underlying stats at away have been very good with him only not getting an acceptable level (0.5 NPxG for a striker) in the last 6 of the 12 home games. His assist based numbers are very good but have been patchy of late
He will have penalty duties
Aguero has a UCL match v Basel midweek and then a FA Cup game at the weekend v Wigan. I expect him not to play v Wigan and given that Jesus could be back as early as GW28 I imagine Aguero will start this game
The Leicester away defence
Away Leicester are ranked 12th equal in goals conceded with 20. In expected goals away they are 7th.
There have been 4 comparable games away against top 6 sides for Leicester
Rd 1 Arsenal 3-4 (xGA 2.54 and 27 shots 15 in the box)
Rd 3 Man Utd 0-2 (xGA 2.74 and 22 shots 12 in the box)
Rd 21 Liverpool 1-2 (xGA 2.57 and 17 shots 12 in the box)
Rd 23 Chelsea 0-0 (xGA 0.62 and 17 shots 6 in the box)
Morgan continues to be out
The reverse fixture was 2-0 to Man City.
Here’s Salah’s away games:
Salah has started 12 away games and returned a goal or assist in 9 of those games. There have been 4 double figure FPL point hauls.
His goal threat underlying stats have been exceptional and in only the Brighton game were they less than acceptable (0.3 for NPxG or 0.3 xA for a mid). If we analyse him as a striker and look for 0.5 NPxG he’s met that in 7/12 games.
Salah could have pens despite not being the designated taker as he took the penalty against Huddersfield.
No FA Cup match means he should start
The Southampton home defence
At home Southampton are ranked 14th equal in goals conceded conceding 20. In expected goals conceded home they are 6th
There have been 3 comparable games at home against top 6 sides which Southampton have fared well defensively
Rd 6 Man Utd 0-1 (xGA 1.07 and 9 shots 6 in the box)
Rd 16 Arsenal 1-1 (xGA 0.61 and 11 shots 6 in the box)
Rd 124 Spurs 1-1 (xGA 1.31 and 17 shots 11 in the box)
Southampton have a full strength defence.
It’s worth noting that the reverse fixture was 3-0 to Liverpool
The bookies favour Aguero at £1.53 and Salah back at £2.00
The Polls for one of the few times are a little inconsistent. The one with the most traffic has Salah at 31 and Aguero at 23. It asks who is the best captain so the reality of the top 10k maybe more towards Salah.
The FFGeek contributors are mainly going for Salah.
Aguero will have pens. Salah could have pens.
The stats are very close
The Leicester defence fared well against Chelsea away even with a sending off. However prior to that the stats haven’t been good. In contrast Southampton have been good at home against the better sides. Aguero therefore has the edge on defence faced.
THE FFGEEK CHOICE
It’s a very difficult choice. The defensive difference of Southampton at home v Leicester away possibly gives the edge to Aguero. However I think Salah is more of a shield option due to his ownership and likely captain favouritism. With 2 Man City attackers and only 1 Liverpool I’m probably going to get the benefits if Man City win anyway.
Sticking with Salah
THE TRANSFER IN POLL
TRANSFER OUT POLL
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