fantasy premier league GW28 captain choice plus transfer poll and BGW31 poll results

Here’s our fantasy premier league GW28 captain choice article where we look at a number of ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. We look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls and the FFGeek choice. We also show you the results of the transfer in and out poll and the free hit and BGW31 poll

 fantasy premier league GW28 captain choice plus transfer poll and BGW31 poll results

If the article’s a bit long there’s a summary at the end

FIXTURES

Here’s the fixtures for GW28:

Bookies win Odds

The bookies see 2 teams as favourites with the following win odds for £1 invested. It’s likely the fantasy premier league GW28 captain choice will come from one of those teams.

 Leicester – £1.70 Vardy, Mahrez

Liverpool – £1.22 – Salah, Firmino, Mane

THE BOOKIES PLAYER ODDS

Here we look at one of the bookies anytime goal scoring odds up to £2.40. I’ve tried to only put players in who have some gametime security although that doesn’t apply for Man City. It’s the return for £1 invested. Odds are as of Saturday morning and remember they assume the player starts and don’t count assist potential.

There are no odds for the Thursday PL Arsenal v Man City match so I’ve used the EFL cup final odds.  They may not be representative given that it’s a neutral venue rather than a home and away situation

£1.60 – Salah

£1.67– Kane

£1.80 – Aguero, Firmino

£2.05 – Vardy

£2.10  – Mane

£2.15 – Wilson

£2.25 – Sterling

£2.30 – Aubameyang

THE FPL ADVICE SITE POLLS.

Thanks to everybody who voted in the FFGeek poll.

It’s also worth noting here that the FFGeek poll asks who you are going to appoint as captain to reflect the reality of the spread of captain choices. Others ask who is the best captain. Others just say captain poll and leave the question up to you.

Firstly here’s the FFGeek poll:

Here’s the summary of the other main advice polls. It’s worth noting that site 1 is the site with the most traffic and it asks who is the best captain

If you want to see the full GW28 captain poll use this link

WHO ARE THE FFGEEK CONTRIBUTORS PICKING?

SOME THOUGHTS ON KANE AND SALAH

Kane

Here’s Kanes away games:

Kane has started 11 away games. He’s got a goal or assist in 7 of the 12 and 6 of the 8 non top 6 sides.

I would say his underlying stats at away have been pretty patchy only not getting an acceptable level (0.5 NPxG for a striker) in the last 6 of the 11 away games.

He will have penalty duties

 Kane should be reasonably rested although he did play part of the FA Cup game

The Palace home defence

At home Palace are ranked 16th in goals conceded with 19. In expected goals away they are better in 9th.

There have been 4 comparable games away against top 6 sides for Leicester

Rd 8 Chelsea 2-1 (xGA 1.52 and 15 shots 6 in the box)

Rd 20 Arsenal 2-3 (xGA 1.84 and 16 shots 11 in the box)

Rd 21  Man City 0-0 (xGA 1.10 and 15 shots 4 in the box)

 The main issue is a huge amount of injuries to the defence.

The reverse fixture was 1-0 to Spurs.

SALAH

Here’s Salah’s home games:

Salah has started 12 home games and returned a goal or assist in 10 of those games. There have been 7 double figure FPL point hauls.

His goal threat underlying stats have been exceptional and in only the Burnley and Man Utd bus game were they less than acceptable (0.3 for NPxG or 0.3 xA for a mid). If we analyse him as a striker and look for 0.5 NPxG he’s met that in 9/12 games.

Salah could have pens despite not being the designated taker as he took the penalty against Huddersfield.

No FA Cup match last weekend and a break in Spain means he should start and be fresh.

The Newcastle home defence

Away Newcastle are ranked 9th equal in goals conceded with 21 against. In expected goals conceded away they are 15th

There have been 3 comparable games at home against top 6 sides which Southampton have fared well defensively

Rd 12 Man Utd 1-4 (xGA 2.57 and 16 shots 14 in the box)

Rd 15 Chelsea 1-3 (xGA 3.08 and 23 shots 19 in the box)

Rd 18 Arsenal 0-1 (xGA 2.02 and 23 shots 18 in the box)

Rd 24 Man City 1-3  (xGA 2.55 and 21 shots 14 in the box)

 No major issues with the Newcastle defence.  Improved GK it seems may help

It’s worth noting that the reverse fixture was 1-1 to Liverpool

SUMMARY

 The bookies are very close between Salah and Kane

 The Polls are overwhelmingly for Salah

The FFGeek contributors are all going for Salah.

Kane will have pens. Salah could have pens.

The stats favour Salah for me.

The Newcastle defence has been terrible away from home against the top 6.  The Palace defence has been good.  However a multitude of injuries for Palace is the unknown factor

THE FFGEEK CHOICE

Salah seems the better choice for me and I’ll be going for him.

THE TRANSFER IN POLL

TRANSFER OUT POLL AND OTHERS

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