Here’s our fantasy premier league GW38 player rankings forwards article. Each player is ranked as a transfer target for GW38. There’s a comprehensive spreadsheet of stats plus some commentary and their next fixtures to help you make a decision on your upcoming transfer.
FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE GW38 PLAYER RANKINGS FORWARDS
Rotation and rest
Firstly, this article was written before the Thursday night Leicester vs Spurs game. Here’s what I said in the defenders rankings article which is still relevant about rotation.
GW38 is going to be tricky due to the fact that the only things still up for grabs is the Champions League spots. Man City have secured at least 4th barring a reasonably big swing of goal difference with Arsenal. I’m sure they will want to finish 3rd. Liverpool need to beat Middlesborough at home to secure their spot. Arsenal need to win and realistically hope Liverpool slip up.
Chelsea are playing in the FA Cup final a week later. Who knows what team he will play in GW38? The press conference, which I imagine will be on Friday, will be the only clue.
Man Utd are playing in the Europa League final mid week.
The ranking of players in the schedule includes first choice players who could be rotated or rested. It doesn’t though include players such as Giroud where it’s difficult to work out if him or Welbeck will start. The rankings aren’t adjusted for the gametime security related to rotation but the issues are outlined in the narrative. You then need to assess whether you want to take that risk
The press conferences will hopefully shed some light
I’ve amended the format of the spreadsheet again to be more user friendly. Here’s the link to the google spreadsheet if you want to play around with it
Mins per FPL point: How many minutes it takes to get an FPL point. The lower the better
Mins per goal or assist: How many minutes it takes to get a goal or assist. The lower the better
Last 4 points: Form check. The points from the last FPL games
Anytime Goal Scorer Odds: The anytime goalscoring odds for the next match from 1 bookie. Its £’s return for £1 invested
Underlying stats: I have ranked the players based on their shooting and creating chances stats over the season and recently
The 20 year old Brazilian striker took a big step forward in my eyes in the win against WBA as he not only scored and assisted but he did so on decent shot volumes which hadn’t been the case recently. I’m not doubting the guys talent, I just wanted more data and against some of the teams in the top half of the table. It was a bit bizarre that he played on the right rather than as a pair close together but I can put that to one side such was his ability to draft inside at crucial moments.
I still think there’s an lement of over performing his underlying stats but the fact is that his returns since coming into the league have been phenomenal full stop.
Rather than me pontificating over the nuances of his stats what I really should be focusing on is the fact that he is playing for Man City who will be out to win to secure 3rd place. He will be playing against a team with possibly no recognised centre back fit or available who have nothing to play for and have just been told that their manager won’t be there next season. It couldn’t be a better scenario unless it was at the Etihad stadium rather than Watford’s place.
At home to a hapless Sunderland who conceded shot records against Arsenal and creating chances records for Mesut Ozil in midweek.
This is only about whether he starts or not. If he does he has great points prospects. He didn’t play on Monday so will he or Batshuayi play or both? Thats the only question. 2 weeks without a game seems along time to rest before the FA Cup final if he doesn’t play
Great stats and great consistency apart from one sticky patch which he seems to have put behind him.
Conte’s press conference hopefully will give some clues as to his intentions
Again this is solely about gametime with Liverpool at home to relegated Middlesborough needing to win to secure a Champions League place. The good news, at least for Sturridge, is that Firmino is struggling to be fit for the game. Combine that with the success of the diamond formation and 2 strikers against West Ham and you have to think that he has a decent chance of starting.
As you can see when he’s on the pitch he’s lethal. Whether he is and how long is the only question
As I said above this is been written before the Leicester v Spurs match.
However, irrespective of how Spurs line up tonight against Leicester, you can interpret what will happen at Hull in the final game in 2 ways. If he puts out a full strength team is that a sign that he is intending to do so for GW38 or does the gap make it more likely he will rest players en masse. If he doesn’t play a full team it just reverses those questions.
Hull while they were fighting relegation were very strong at home. However that’s no longer the case and while I imagine Marco Silva will still play a strong team it does leave the possibility of a fall in intensity.
If Kane plays then there has to be good points prospects although he has favoured White Hart Lane in his scoring
Again the press conference post tonights game could be helpful
A pretty disappointing return of 1 assist in the 3 goal win over WBA isn’t what you’d be looking at for £12.7m. Unfortunately his underlying stats have dipped off recently and even over the season he isn’t just killing every other striker either as you would usually expect.
I’d be very surprised if he didn’t play against Watford and he has the quality we just haven’t seen it in that devastating form that we have in recent seasons.
With a fairly low ownership among active managers that risk if it still exists probably isn’t going to hurt you rank wise significantly if it happened.
The Burnley striker seems to have busted up the Barnes /Gray partnership through some great recent form with 4 goals in his last 4 games. There is a case that he has overperformed his basic shot stats though which is a negative. West Ham at home, after their shambolic defensive performance against Liverpool, aren’t the worst of opponents either although, to be fair, that did follow 3 consecutive clean sheets.
West Ham (H)
Not in great form with the goal at West Ham his first return in 7 games. His underlying stats are also pretty ordinary to say the least. However his overall season returns have been good although this run of poor form maybe his underlying stats catching up with him.
This is about being in a Liverpool team with everything to play for against relegated opposition who struggled against Chelsea badly recently and have conceded 11 goals in their last 3 away games
With Firmino struggling he should start
3 goals in his last 3 games have helped Swansea move away from relegation. How they perform in the first game without the pressure is the unknown. I would be surprised if they rotate given it’s the last home game as they should want to go out on a positive note.
This was written before the Leicester v Spurs game on Thursday.
8 goals and 5 assists in his last 11 games, only not returning in 2 of those games, is an incredible transformation of form. He doesn’t really have the underlying stats to back it up but the goals and assists just keep coming.
Bournemouth at home is a good fixture to finish on. My sense is that Shakespeare will want to keep the momentum going for his own job prospects if nothing else
A tricky fixture to finish for the Palace striker away to Man Utd although it should be a fairly 2nd string side with the Europa League final midweek. It has been a pretty mixed season to say the least with his goal against Hull following 3 consecutive blanks. Has got reasonable underlying stats he’s just not translated them into goals or assists consistently. Even though Palace just became safe from relegation last week I’d be surprised if he doesn’t start
Man Utd (A)
The fact that the leagues top scorer is down here is due to the fixture away to Arsenal, the fact that he’s blanked in his last 4 games plus a significant drop in recent underlying stats.
You have to believe in his underlying quality and desire to get the golden boot to believe in him as a transfer for GW38