fantasy premier league GW5 transfer tips – the bandwagons and sinking ships


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Here’s our fantasy premier league GW5 transfer tips article where we outline the bandwagons and sinking ships. These are the most transferred in players for GW5 (bandwagons) and most transferred out players (sinking ships) so far in the FPL gameweek.

fantasy premier league GW5 transfer tips – the bandwagons and sinking ships

Also as were so early on in the season I’m still including alot of last seasons stats

The Bandwagons

These are the 5 most transferred IN players so far in the gameweek.

Stats definition:

PP90: The FPL points per 90 minutes played for 17/18.

PPG 18/19: The points per game stat for 18/19 from the FPL site

ATGS/CS odds GW5: Anytime goal scorer odds or clean sheet odds for defenders for GW5.  I’m writing this on Sunday the 9th September and there are no ATGS stats as yet

Fixture ease: The fixture ranking by difficulty for GW5-10 and GW5-7. See our fixture ease article

U Stats position rank. The ranking from an attacking point of view for their FPL position of Fwd or Mid in 17/18. I haven’t done defender ranks. Taken from the excellent free site understat.com

Prices as of Sunday 9 September

The schedule





fantasy premier league GW5 transfer tips

Mitrovic

Started the season on fire with 4 goals and an assist in his first 4 all 90 minute appearances.  He’s only failed to return in the win over Palace and that wasn’t for lack of trying.  His underlying stats have been excellent and shown that his start has been no fluke.  He also in a very attack minded side that aren’t renowned for defence as well which has to be helpful.

If you were looking for risk areas you’d probably say that at the moment he’s return and playing at an Aguero level.  Now we don’t have much in the way of PL history after 2015/16 with Newcastle where he operated at half the level he is now.  So you’d think there will be some levelling off.  The unknown is where that will be.  However for the price there’s a decent amount of headroom to find that level.

I’m not sure I’d be desperate to get him in before an away game to Man City, although if you’re wildcarding that’s a different decision.

Man City (A)
Watford (H)
Everton (A)
Arsenal (H)
Cardiff (A)
Bournemouth (H)

Moura

Another player who’s started the season again in very hot form with 3 goals and an assist.  After a 60 minute GW1 it’s been three 90 minute appearances as well.  His underlying stats are a bit of a mixed message with 2 great games against Man Utd and Fulham but pretty anonymous performances against Watford and Newcastle.  Positioning wise though he ticks alot of boxes pretty much playing as a striker in the last 2 matches.

I guess the risk areas apart from the mixed underlying stats are the return of Son HM to at least take some minutes of him if not start in front of him.  As well as that, like Mitrovic, we’re looking at someone who has little PL history to fall back on.  His PSG underlying stats at PSG were very good but you’ve got to think that it will be difficult to replicate these given the difference in leagues and PSG’s dominance.  He isn’t currently doing that.

Again a tricky introduction fixture.

Liverpool (H)
Brighton (A)
Huddersfield (A)
Cardiff (H)
West Ham (A)
Man City (H)

Holebas

It’s hard to believe that Watford are actually 3rd in the table even allowing for the fact that it’s only 4 games.  Although you’d look at their attacking numbers and say they were lucky to have scored the goals they have defensively that’s not the case.  Only Liverpool have conceded less goals and only Liverpool have a better xG conceded.  You can raise questions against the opposition,  Brighton, Burnley and Palace aren’t the strongest attacking teams but they did play Spurs as well and their defensive performance in that game was excellent.

Again the risk area is sustainability.  Holebas already has 4 assists and a goal to his name from an attacking perspective.  It’s worth noting though that in his 3 seasons he’s never totalled more than 4 assists and his best return is 2 goals in a season.  He may have a decent  set piece representation but this isn’t going to continue at the current pace.  In my view once he hits £5.0m he should become a play every game asset and will Watford be a club that can justify that is questionable.

The 3rd player in this group with a difficult entry point fixture

Man Utd (H)
Fulham (A)
Arsenal (A)
Bournemouth (H)
Wolves (A)
Huddersfield (H)

Pedro

Another player who’s started the season in great form with 3 goals in his first 4 games scoring in 3 of the 4 games.  He’s performing way above his previous Chelsea underlying stats (even before you adjust for pitch time) so again you’d have to question sustainability.  However Sarri is a much more attacking manager than Conte though which should allow some bump forward in his numbers but it’s hard to see him continuing at this rate.  Again though he does have some headroom to still remain good value.

The most pertinent question though is gametime.  It’s easy to forget with him scoring in GW4 that he started off the bench.  Prior to that he played 80 minutes, 90 minutes and then 68 minutes.  I would probably think Hazard and Morata/Giroud will start most games which means even if Pedro does start he will still have Willian stealing minutes from him.

However he is £6.8m and not £8m so it depends on whether you think the price makes up for the risk areas and limitations

Certainly if you’re going to pick him then now is the time to do it with him home to Cardiff next.  He also has the advantage that Willian is on international duty with Brazil over the break so that gives him a selection edge for that fixture.

Cardiff (H)
West Ham (A)
Liverpool (H)
Southampton (A)
Man Utd (H)
Burnley (A)

Alonso

So here I’m not going to mention a single stat apart from the fact that in 4 games he’s scored a goal and 5 assists.

If you saw the game against Bournemouth then you saw all you need to know.  It was ridiculous.  He was practically a forward.

With Cardiff next he’s going to be a tough guy not to own.

Cardiff (H)
West Ham (A)
Liverpool (H)
Southampton (A)
Man Utd (H)
Burnley (A)

Sinking Ships

These are the 5 most transferred OUT players so far in the gameweek.





fantasy premier league GW5 transfer tips

Zaha

Didn’t start GW4 due to a training injury which wasn’t publicised at all and only came to FPL managers attention when the team sheet came out.

So far I’ve yet to see anything on whether he will be available for GW5.  There was some speculation about being out for a month or so but I haven’t seen anything from the club to back this up.

He’s started the season well with 2 goals in his first 3 games playing 90 minutes in each of the matches.

His underlying stats though apart from the Fulham game have been pretty ordinary to date and he does have some positional risk as a change in system could involve him playing out wide as opposed to a striker.

To me though the next 3 games and Huddersfield next don’t look like a desperate sale event if it does transpire that he’s fit.

Huddersfield (A)
Newcastle (H)
Bournemouth (A)
Wolves (H)
Everton (A)
Arsenal (H)

Walcott

Has some similarities with the Zaha position.  He went off injured in GW4 but we’ve yet to have any news as to whether he’s going to be fit or not for GW5. Walcott started the season with 2 goals and an assist in his first 4 games and also played decent minutes in the 3 games before he went off injured v Huddersfield.

His underlying stats are difficult to assess as it’s one brilliant game and 3 games with little attacking output.   So that makes it hard to get a fix on where they are going to end up especially when you throw the previous stats were either with Big Sam or Arsenal so hard to compare.  However even at Big Sam levels he was good value for the price so you’d hope he will be a decent pick.

This is really about whether he’s fit or not because home to a pretty shaky West Ham next isn’t the worst place to hold for

West Ham (H)
Arsenal (A)
Fulham (H)
Leicester (A)
Crystal Palace (H)
Man Utd (A)

Salah

2 goals and 2 assists in his first 4 games, returning in 3 of those 4 games and averaging 84 minutes on the pitch with two 90 minute games.  Underlying stats also which are even better than last season and only Lukaku of players with more than 200 minutes has better shot stats.

It seems the blank against Leicester plus the 70 minute substitution has spooked a load of managers into thinking they can do without him and/or or that they additional funds spread around after replacing him can make up for it.  The case for doing so to a large extent involves the upcoming fixtures.  The next fixture is away to Spurs and then there’s Chelsea and Man City in GW7 and 8   Add the fact that he’s yet to get a bonus point (if you can’t get one with 2  assists in a 2-0 win there’s something very wrong) then you’ve got a series of factors that has given many FPL managers the nudge they need to ditch him.

It all depends on your view of risk.  The risk is that fact that more than 50% of FPL managers still own him and if he remains a go to captain option then there will be rank damage if he does post big point hauls.  It’s whether you believe the fixtures and bonus issues will prevent that or that you can counter it with the additional funds you have.

Spurs (A)
Southampton (H)
Chelsea (A)
Man City (H)
Huddersfield (A)
Cardiff (H)

Mkhitaryan

Everything was going relatively swimmingly for Mkhitaryan.  He had got through the first 3 games having played 90 minutes in all 3 games and had a goal and assist v Chelsea.  The unlderlying stats were reasonably good if a little propped up by the Chelsea game.

Then he fell victim to the Emery rotation wheel and GW4 was 1 minute v Cardiff.  Add to that Lacazette’s performance and suddenly it looks between him and Ozil for the 4th attacking spot.  That is his main risk at the moment because he’s shown reasonably enough to think that he can be good value if he plays, especially as the fixtures remain good.

Newcastle (A)
Everton (H)
Watford (H)
Fulham (A)
Leicester (H)
Crystal Palace (A)

Richarlison

Suspended for GW5.  I’m kind of surprised that FPL managers,  having made the decision to hold him for GW4,  haven’t kept him for 1 more game.

Started the season on fire with 3 goals in his first 2 games backed up by excellent underlying stats which, at least in those games, he looked like delivering on.  It then all went horribly wrong with a sending off v Bournemouth.

The fixtures remain good if you can hold on

West Ham (H)
Arsenal (A)
Fulham (H)
Leicester (A)
Crystal Palace (H)
Man Utd (A)

See also Rob Reids August review the FFGeek contributors imaginary wildcard teams part 1,  10 top FPL managers article, the underlying stats GW4 article, Jordans wildcard team, the early thoughts on the FFGeek team article and thefixture ease article

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4 thoughts on “fantasy premier league GW5 transfer tips – the bandwagons and sinking ships

  1. Hi geek, with Shaw potential out, zaha could be out for a month, Walcott touch and go to make the game, homer injured, gudmundsson and Austin not getting a kick you must be worried about your team this week and over next couple of weeks. Surely playing the wildcard must be playing on your mind?

    • I am definitely worried about the next few weeks. I’m definitely not wildcarding though. For me there just isn’t enough data to make a proper decision. This position could happen at anytime. I have 2 transfers although 1 is probably going to be used for Luiz to Alonso although I could take Shaw out if he is out for a while. cheers and good luck this week

      • Two free, you are fine. I don’t think the Luiz/Alonso double will do your rank any damage, quite the opposite imo.
        Even if you are forced into a hit to deal with any two of Zaha/Austin/Walcott.
        Still in an excellent position..

  2. Also forgot to mention mkhitaryan arsenal lack of mins in the last game. There’s alot of risks attached to your time at the minute and all Ur good work you have done so far could be undone

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