Background

Options

Sturridge

6 goals 2 assists in his first 7 games and returned  6/7  at an amazing 86%.  Has reasonable shooting stats but hasn’t really been creating chances which would give additional chances to return.  Played twice in WCQs but with little travelling should still see him able to perform.

Newcastle have defended reasonable well at home and ridiculously away from home.  However the opposition at home has been Fulham, West Ham and  Hull which are probably 3 of the worst attacking teams in the league

Definitely an option

Giroud

4 goals 2 assists in his first 7 starts  returning in 5/7 games which is an 83% consistency of return rate.  Has the best overall shooting and creating chances starts for any forward which gives good confidence that the start is built on solid foundations.  With Ozil, Cazorla and Walcott all potentially injured there could amazingly be a creativity void in the team though which is the only negative.

In 3 away games Norwich have actually performed well only conceding 3 goals and collecting clean sheets.  However look closer and the 3 games were Stoke, Hull and Spurs all of which have struggled to score this season.  Overall I rank their defence 14th overall and I can see arsenal taking them apart although it would be helpful if Ozil was fit.

Definitely an option

Lukaku

4 goals and an assist in his first 3 games for Everton with a 100% scoring rate. Built on fantastic underlying shooting stats. No gametime questions either.

Hull in their first 3 games have conceded 6 goals in 3 games although 2 of those games were against Man City and Chelsea.  However they defended pretty ordinarily against Newcastle.  Overall I’ve rated their defence as 10th in the league but I can see Everton and Lukaku scoring here

Unquestionably an option

Michu

2 goals and  1 assist in 7 games. Consistency rate isn’t the best at 3 returns from 7 games and 43% which is why you need to pick the best fixtures and they don’t come much better than Sunderland away.  He does have the best overall underlying stats and is creating chances as well as having great shooting stats.  It’s just his reliability that’s in question although to be fair the fixtures haven’t been easy.

Sunderland have conceded 7 goals in 3 games away against  WBA, Palace and Southampton, none of which are scoring machines and as a result the underlying stats defensively aren’t actually near the bottom.  Overall though in my mind the only defence that’s worse is Palace.  The Poyet effect is interesting though as his Brighton side were excellent defensively.  Its just doubtful if he’s been their long enough to have any effect. They certainly have looked better since Di Canio left

Michu’s inconsistency and the potential improvement of the Sunderland defence means the captains armband might be a step far for me

Summary:

Yes in order:

1.  Lukaku

2.  Giroud

3.  Sturridge

No: Michu

William Hill check

Here’s how William Hill see the anytime goal scorer odds market with all players at under £2.00

1.  Giroud £1.50

2.  Lukaku £1.61

3.  RVP £1.61

4.  Torres £1.73

5.  Ba £1.80

6.  Eto’o £1.80

7.  Bendtner £1.91

So William Hill have more faith than me in RVP against the Sainst defence with the captains armband.  They also have less faith in Sturridge at £2.00.

Of the others up there that I haven’t mentioned, I’ve discounted the Chelsea 3 as too unpredictable to work who will start.  Bendtner also wont start.  Interestingly William Hill have Michu at £2.00 and Sturridge at £2.00.

I hope that gives you some food for thought

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